US Dollar Regains Bullish Momentum, as Market Risk Mood Slumps

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The recent market risk sentiment boost that spurred the S&P 500 to new record highs, caused the US to raise $120 billion in coupon sales and prompted the European Central Bank (ECB) to promise to “significantly” boost bond purchasing programs, appears to have fizzled out ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) rebounded on Friday as interest rate differentials expanded further.

Although price action across the market appeared choppy, a few trends have emerged. The US Treasury yields (3yr through 30yr) have been on the rise for the sixth consecutive week. The CRB Index has also risen for the seventh consecutive week and is up over 15% on a year-to-date basis. Crude oil appears to have fallen into consolidation over the past few days, following its dramatic rally since it bottomed out on November 2.

The greenback rounded off the week on a positive footing. This rally was likely because of the ECB’s commitment to stepping up bond-buying efforts and the large US infrastructure negotiations tailing the recently-approved $1.9 trillion stimulus measure. Additionally, an executive order from the office of the US President requested that all States ensure that all willing adults can be vaccinated against the coronavirus by early May.

Event-Filled Week for the USD and EUR
The EUR/USD appears to have strongly rebounded from a yearly low at 1.1835 and is now on a journey to reclaim the 1.2000 psychological resistance.

We could see a bullish resumption in the pair at the open of the market later today, as we expect an event-filled week.

For the USD, the NY Empire State manufacturing data will get published tomorrow. Industrial Production and Retail Sales will dictate the greenback’s price dynamics on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the weekly Jobless Claim and Philadelphia FED Manufacturing PMI figures will take Thursday.

However, the main event for the week is the FED monetary policy decision, slated for Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the EUR’s price action will get influenced by inflation figures from the Eurozone, the ZEW Economic Sentiment figures, and COVID-19-related developments.

 

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