EURCHF quickly recovered yesterday’s losses after hitting an eleven-week low of 1.0921. The bounce helped the currency outperform the on the 4-hour chart. The RSI bounced above the neutral threshold of 50 but is currently pointing down, while the stochastic is moving towards the overbought area.
In a positive scenario, a successful close above 1.0915 resistance could push the market towards 1.1017 barriers and then a 200-period moving average at 1.1023. The further advance could open the door for the 1.1040 barriers and the 1.1075-1.1095 bounding area.
Europe’s vaccination progress. “Fears of increasing inflation remain widespread, as commodity prices continue to rise and China recorded a 6.8% annual increase in producer prices, which was higher than anticipated. With the worries already taken a toll on tech stocks, and the safe-haven dollar gaining ground.”
The euro is subject to dovish comments from European Central Bank member François Villerois de Gallo. He advocates maintaining the ECB’s bond-buying scheme until at least March 2022, if not later. After a few conflicting headlines, his words seem to carry more weight and push the common currency lower.
The euro is still supported by the accelerating vaccination campaign in Europe. The old continent is catching up to the US, and efforts are paying off, with COVID-19 cases falling in Germany and elsewhere. Approximately 30% of EU residents received at least one injection.
The European Central Bank has promised to accelerate the pace of its bond-buying scheme in the second quarter but may announce that it is already canceling this policy in June when it meets again. That is, according to Martin Kazaks, one of the bank’s participants. Markets will see this as tightening and boost the euro. On the other hand, Ollie Rehn, another ECB member, wants to adopt the Fed’s approach of allowing inflation to rise above its 2% target to make up for past failures. This would mean that the policy would remain softer for a longer period, which would weaken the euro.
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