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The EUR/USD has failed to show any significant moves this morning despite the European Commission raising its 2023 growth forecast for the EU. Market sentiment remains risk-averse ahead of tomorrow’s release of EU GDP and US inflation data.
The EU economy has started the year in a better position than expected in the fall. This has led the European Commission to lift its growth forecast for 2023 to 0.9% in the Euro Area. The EU is set to avoid a technical recession due to declining gas prices and a robust labor market. However, the Commission has downgraded its inflation expectations, with headline inflation expected to drop to 5.6% in 2023.
Centeno and de Guindos, ECB policymakers, expressed optimism about the future inflation outlook while noting that any rate hikes after March will be dependent on data.
The University of Michigan released its preliminary consumer sentiment survey on Friday, which indicated an uptick in one-year inflation expectations, rising to 4.2% from January’s 3.9%. The labor market is tight, and wage growth remains an issue, leading to concerns about US inflation data.
EUR/USD Traders Turn Focus to Fed Comments
Later today, Federal Reserve policymaker Michelle Bowman is expected to add some hawkish rhetoric to the EUR/USD. However, major movements are unlikely until the release of the US inflation print and Eurozone GDP growth rate figures tomorrow.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD remains flat despite the European Commission raising the EU growth forecast for 2023. The market is currently risk-averse, which is preventing any potential bullish move. The European economy looks to be on a better footing than initially predicted, which has led to an upgrade in its growth outlook for the year.
Additionally, the ECB policymakers remain upbeat about the future inflation outlook, stating that rate hikes beyond March will be data-dependent. Despite these positive outlooks, the market is waiting for the US inflation and Eurozone GDP data releases tomorrow before making any significant moves.
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