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EUR/USD staged a mild recovery last week after refreshing its May low near 1.0350, closing the week a few points below the 1.0600. The mild bullish momentum was restricted from crossing the 1.0600 mark as sellers defended against any bullish extension.
In the last few months, inflation-related concerns have morphed into recession fears as risk flight worsens. Central banks worldwide spent several years pumping liquidity into the market, making them overtly exposed when the pandemic unexpectedly hit in 2020. The ensuing stalling of economic activity and growth and the crawling return to normalcy fueled raging global inflation, currently threatening a recession.
With this in mind, it remains significantly unlikely for the EUR/USD pair to record any significant bullish momentum in the near term. The FX board is heavily biased towards the dollar in situations like we currently are, capping any comeback chances for the euro.
Last week’s economic data docket showed that inflation-related figures signaled persistent price pressures, while growth indicators showed little to no growth. The flash S&P Global PMIs highlighted a sharp decline in business activities at the end of Q2 2022 in both the US and the Eurozone.
EUR/USD to Remain On the Backfoot this Week
This week, the global economic docket should highlight the persisting economic weakness, which would keep the EUR/USD pot on the backfoot. The top data reports include the US May Durable Goods Orders, German Consumer Price Index, and the US Q1 Gross Domestic Product. Later in the week, Germany should publish its May Retail Sales while the US releases its core PCE inflation numbers. Finally, the entire week would be punctuated by several appearances from ECB President Christine Lagarde.
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