EUR/AUD Price Analysis — January 14

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The EUR/AUD continued on a sharp descent towards the 1.5600 in the mid-European session on Thursday, amid a weakening Euro.

The political uncertainty in Italy has caused investors to become reserved towards the EUR. Three ministers from the ruling coalition resigned yesterday, putting the future Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, in a precarious position.

If Conte is unable to assemble a new majority soon, it is likely he will be dropped from the new government. However, early elections are not likely to be organized because of the pandemic, not at least every other option has been exhausted by the parliament.

Meanwhile, the ECB’s PEPP has been very instrumental for the Italian debt market and will likely keep negative effects from the political fallout at bay, especially considering that the ECB has just expanded its planned purchases to EUR1.85 trillion. Italy is also scheduled to receive EUR208 billion of EU Recovery Funds. That said, these factors should prevent unrestrained declines for the EUR in the near-term,

In other news, a near-total wipeout of COVID-19, an upbeat global market risk mood, and pro-cyclical exposure to Asian demand have been very helpful in driving the price of Aussie higher. That said, speculators are starting to suggest that the RBA might push against a strong AUD through further dovish monetary policies.

EUR/AUD Value Forecast — January 14

EUR/AUD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 1.5675, 1.5800, and 1.5900

Demand Levels: 1.5600, 1.5500, and 1.5400

The EUR/AUD is barreling down our descending channel as the 1.5600 psychological support comes into view for the first time in more than two years. Bulls could take advantage of the fact that the pair has gotten to the base of our channel as an opportunity to take the price higher.

That said, failure of the EUR/AUD to facilitate a bounce above the 1.5675 resistance in the coming hours and days could confirm a descent to the 1.5600 and lower.

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