Dollar Softens on Not So Good NFP, Economic Recovery Linked to Vaccine Rollout

The US dollar fell sharply at the start of the American session after much less-than-expected growth in non-farm payroll, although unemployment fell markedly. The loonie is under some pressure today after more than expected job cuts. But the yen is in second place after the dollar as the weakest. The Australian dollar and euro are trying to regain their positions against the dollar.

The number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector in January rose by only 49,000, well below expectations of 85,000. “The significant increase in jobs in professional and business services, as well as in public and private education, has been offset by losses in the leisure and hospitality sectors, retail, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing.”

However, the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7%, much better than expected at 6.7%. The number of unemployed fell to 10.1 million. The participation rate remained unchanged at 61.4%.

Average hourly profit rose 0.2% MoM, below expectations of 0.3% MoM. It was also reported that the trade deficit narrowed to -66.6 billion dollars in December. Friday’s price action suggests that much of this week’s rally was driven by hopes for a strong NFP report.
Economic Recovery Linked to Vaccine Rollout
Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said strong economic growth this year will be “the result of a lower starting point last year.” Convalescence will have to do with the deployment of the vaccine and how careful people are. However, the unemployment rate will please when the layoff program ends. Besides, tight international boundaries will negatively affect both demand and supply in the economy.

The slow pace of vaccination remains another cause for concern. The UK was the first country in the West to approve and implement the Pfizer/BioNTech jab, but implementation is lagging. The US has given the green light and 100% American injection of Moderna, and it’s also progressing disappointingly slowly.

The European Union is moving at a slow pace compared to its counterparts in both approval and deployment. While everyone is determined to step up their efforts, the virus is likely to remain the winner in the first quarter. Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are likely to continue their depressing upward trend, prompting authorities to keep the nuts on lockdown.