Financial markets are trading in a mixed-mode today. The sentiment is a bit downward-looking due to coronavirus fears, but the sell-off is relatively small so far. There is also no clear impulse for the yen and dollar to continue the rebound. The Canadian dollar reacted little to the rise in inflation data in March. It is quietly waiting for the announcement of the Bank of Canada on the reduction of terms and new economic forecasts.
Technically, it is worth paying attention to the minor support at 129.56 in the EUR/JPY pair. A break would open the door for a deeper pullback to support at 128.28. The accompanying reactions in EUR/USD and USD/JPY would be even more interesting. A break of the 1.1941 minor support in EUR/USD would see a deeper fall to 1.1703, retesting the 1.1703 low. A solid breakout of the 107.75 support in USD/JPY will signal a short-term bearish reversal.
EUR/JPY has broken through mid-March high at 130.66. It looks like a breakout of the above and attention returns to the uptrend at 129.40. The uptrend protects the current March lows of 128.37/20 as well as the January high of 127.50.
The dollar tended to rise compared to most of its peers, receiving some haven influx as coronavirus cases appear to be on the rise in several countries, from India to Canada. It should be noted that the dollar rose even though US yields fell amid a general downward trend, which is a sign that the market may expect the Fed to tighten its monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Characteristically, the uncertainty also blurred the outlook for oil demand, thereby weakening oil prices, while the major US stock indexes also declined. On the other hand, gold prices, which were not hindered by the strengthening of the dollar, also tended to rise amid declining yields in the US.
In general, there’s a change in market sentiment, which could be observed not only in the foreign exchange market but also in other markets. With a small number of important financial releases scheduled from the US, we expect fundamentals to play a key role in this direction, and if market caution continues, we may see the dollar rising.
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