Dollar Shoots Lower, Gold Surges Following Big NFP Shortfall

Azeez Mustapha
3 September 2021 | Updated: 3 September 2021

After a massive NFP miss, the dollar jumps down in the early US session. However, at the time of writing, the selloff is only strong against commodities currencies. The dollar is attempting to recover versus European heavyweights and Sterling in particular. Traders may require a little extra time to make their decision. While a September announcement on Fed tapering seems unlikely currently, it might yet happen in November.

The number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States in August rose by 235 thousand, which is well below expectations of 750 thousand people. A noticeable increase in jobs occurred in the field of professional and business services, transport and warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment was still down 5.3 million from pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

The unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%, in line with expectations. The number of unemployed fell to 8.4 million people. Both measures remain well above their pre-pandemic levels (unemployment rate at 3.5% and unemployment rate at 5.7 million). The labor force participation rate was 61.7%, remaining at 61.4–61.7% since June 2020. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% MoM, above expectations of 0.4%.

Dollar stays depressed on dismal NFP

The USD came under heavy bearish pressure as a result of the first market reaction, and the US Dollar Index was last observed shedding 0.25 percent daily at 92.08. DXY hit fresh multi-week lows around 91.94 earlier in the session, however, it has since recovered a few pips. The DXY’s near-term market action is mostly (and completely) determined by Friday’s Payrolls figures.

Lower-than-expected statistics, on the other hand, might put the dollar under even more pressure, dragging DXY to temporary support at 92.00, ahead of the 91.80/75 zone, which holds the July/August lows. In the meanwhile, the favorable outlook for the dollar is projected to continue constantly as long as the index trades above the 200-day SMA, which is currently at 91.33.

So far today, the EUR/USD has risen to a high of 1.1908. The intraday tendency is still upward, with resistance around 1.1907 close by. If there is a significant breach there, it means the slide from 1.2265 has ended, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348. For the 1.2265/2348 resistance, the short-term prognosis will be optimistic. If 1.1792 minor support is broken, the bias will shift to the downside towards the 1.1602/63 support zone.

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Azeez Mustapha

Azeez Mustapha

Azeez Mustapha is a trading professional, currency analyst, signals strategist, and funds manager with over ten years of experience within the financial field. As a blogger and finance author, he helps investors understand complex financial concepts, improve their investing skills, and learn how to manage their money.