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Dollar: After significantly weaker-than-expected ADP job statistics, US futures are heading south. As risk sentiment shifts back to caution, the yen gains a significant amount of ground. However, the NZD and AUD are still the most powerful today. The dollar is the next weakest currency and appears fragile, especially versus European majors and the yen.
In July, ADP employment in the US grew by only 330 thousand, which is well below expectations of 680 thousand people. By the size of companies, small businesses added 91 thousand jobs, medium-sized enterprises – 132 thousand, large enterprises – 106 thousand people. By sector, jobs in the production of goods increased by 12 thousand, and in the service sector – by 318 thousand.
“The labor market recovery continues to show uneven progress, but progress nonetheless. Wage data for July shows a marked slowdown in job growth compared to the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
“For the fifth month in a row, the leisure and hospitality sector is the fastest growing industry, although growth has slowed somewhat. The slowdown in recovery has also affected companies of all sizes. Job bottlenecks continue to stifle growth, especially in light of new concerns about COVID-19 related to viral variants. These obstacles should disappear in the coming months, leading to stronger monthly growth in the future. ”
New Zealand Dollar Surges After Strong Job Data
Following the release of New Zealand’s latest employment statistics, the New Zealand dollar has continued to dominate. The NZD rate has risen above 0.7050 as a result of the report. The employment market report, according to experts, confirms the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate hike predictions.
According to the most recent employment report, the unemployment rate fell considerably more dramatically than projected in Q2 by 0.6 percentage points to 4.0 percent. It is already well below the RBNZ’s prediction of 4.7 percent unemployment and is likely close to levels considered to be consistent with full employment. At the same time, salary growth appeared to be picking up. In the second quarter, headline wages climbed by 0.7 percent year over year, compared to 0.4 percent in the first.
The NZD received a boost from New Zealand’s strong jobs data. The expectation that the RBNZ will continue to raise rates is based on the assumption that the Covid epidemic would not disrupt the economy and force the central bank to postpone rate hikes. New Zealand’s domestic fundamentals remain robust, as the island nation has done an outstanding job of weathering the Covid storm. Meanwhile, there is concern about the epidemic, which has reached a peak in Australia and led to the suspension of quarantine-free travel between the two countries.
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