International Tensions Reemerged, Dollar on the Risk of Another Decline

The next indication of market direction could come from an unexpected source. Headlines in the past week were about maintaining economic strength by resuming operations in richer countries and rising coronavirus cases in poorer countries. Geopolitical tensions have arisen.

Russia and the United States are “tit for tat” over the buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine and interference in the recent US presidential elections. Tensions are growing again with China, this time over Taiwan. When will these actions hit the markets? Besides, the ECB and Bank of China are holding interest rate decision-making sessions this week.

While expectations for a policy change are low, forecasts and statements will be monitored for any signs of when contraction may begin, especially in Canada. Also, this week’s first FAANG report that Netflix started with. We’ll also get UK employment data and our first global PMI data for April!
Dollar on the Risk of Another Decline
The dollar fell sharply again as falling Treasury yields pushed the US and German equities to new all-time highs. The immediate dollar trend was supposed to change, but it is not yet clear whether it is ready for a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.

At the very least, the EUR/USD should break the 1.2 level with some confidence, while the dollar index should break the 91.30 support. However, there is a downside risk for the dollar.

Last week, the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new all-time highs as the uptrend resumed. For the time being, the DOW’s near-term outlook remains bullish as long as the 33227.78 resistance turned support holds. In the medium term, the entire uptrend from 18213.65 is on track to a 61.8 percent forecast of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 37129.47.

Similarly, the S&P 500’s near-term outlook will stay positive as long as the 4068.31 support level remains. In the medium term, the uptrend from 2191.86 is on track to reach a 100 percent estimate of 2191.86 to 3588.11 from 3233.94 at 4630.19.

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