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After dismal economic statistics, the dollar slide continues and accelerates slightly during the US session. Even while the Fed admitted that economic progress has already been made, the dollar fell sharply overnight and has remained weak.
In a statement, the FOMC acknowledges that “the economy has moved forward towards” maximum employment and price stability targets.” Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Fed discussed the pace and structure of the cut, but did not make final decisions. Powell also noted that the proposal to cut MBS purchases in the first place “does not receive much support” and that participants are ambivalent about the faster MBS purchases cut. The next focus is on the protocols to be released in 3 weeks.
Meanwhile, Fed officials are likely to be more divided on the upcoming cut. The key events leading up to the September meeting are the minutes of the July meeting and the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August. We also expect more details on emission reductions to be released in September, as well as updated economic forecasts and median dot plots. The official announcement of the cut will be made in December.
US GDP Grows 6.5% YoY in Q2, Falls Below Expectations
US GDP grew 6.5% y/y in the second quarter, well below expectations of 8.2%. BEA said: “The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected an increase in personal consumption spending (PCE), non-residential fixed investment, exports, and government and local government spending, which were partially offset by a decline in private investment in inventory, investment in fixed assets, etc. and federal government spending. The imports that are deducted for calculating GDP have increased.”
Initial Jobless Claims Fell to 400,000, Lower Than Expected
The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended July 24 fell by -24 thousand to 400 thousand, which is above expectations of 365 thousand. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased by 8 thousand to 394.5 thousand.
In the week ended July 17, the number of standing claims rose by 7,000 to 3,269,000. The four-week moving average number of pending claims fell from 54,000 to 3,291,000, the lowest since March 21, 2020.
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