Crypto Markets: 3 Key Events That Could Drive Volatility This Week

Crypto markets enter the new week on a cautious note following a subdued long weekend and a quiet stretch on the U.S. economic calendar. As the second half of the year begins, investors are keeping a close watch on key developments that could affect crypto sentiment and price action.

From economic indicators to geopolitical updates, several factors could shape crypto market movements between July 7 and 11. Here’s a look at the main catalysts.

1. Economic Indicators in Focus

Crypto markets often respond to broader financial conditions, and this week features several relevant U.S. economic reports.

• Consumer Credit Change (July 8): Monday will see the release of May’s consumer credit figures. This report tracks changes in borrowing, excluding mortgage debt, offering insight into consumer confidence and spending.
• Business Optimism Index (July 9): A gauge of small business sentiment in June may provide hints about economic resilience or weakness, which could influence risk-on or risk-off behavior in crypto markets.
• EIA Energy Outlook (July 9): The Energy Information Administration’s short-term forecast could impact investor mood, especially as energy costs influence inflation expectations.

Together, these indicators offer a snapshot of the U.S. economy — a key backdrop for crypto investors assessing whether to position themselves defensively or more aggressively.

2. Federal Reserve and Tariff Decisions

Wednesday is shaping up to be the most significant day of the week for crypto markets.

• Fed Minutes (July 10): The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its most recent meeting. Investors will analyze the language for clues about potential interest rate moves. At present, markets assign only a 4% probability to a July rate cut, with most bets pointing toward October. However, any dovish tilt could support crypto as an alternative asset.
• Tariff Deadline (July 9): The 90-day tariff pause ends on Tuesday. The potential reintroduction of high U.S. tariffs on major trading partners could jolt global markets. If President Trump delays the decision once more, it might be seen as a sign of flexibility, which would boost investor confidence.

According to UBS Global Wealth Management, an aggressive tariff approach could spark uncertainty, while a more cautious stance may sustain the risk appetite that supports crypto markets.

3. Treasury Auctions and Market Liquidity

This week also includes a series of bond sales by the U.S. Treasury:

• $58 billion in 3-year notes (Tuesday)
• $39 billion in 10-year notes (Wednesday)
• $22 billion in 30-year bonds (Thursday)

Large bond auctions can drain liquidity from other markets. If institutional investors shift focus toward Treasuries, crypto markets could experience short-term volatility or even downward pressure.

Crypto Market Snapshot

As of Monday morning in Asia, total crypto market capitalization has edged up to $3.44 trillion, remaining within a two-month range. Bitcoin has revisited the $109,500 mark and may soon retest resistance at $110,000 — a key psychological and technical level.

Ethereum also made a push toward $2,600 over the weekend, but resistance continues to hold firm. Bulls are watching for follow-through catalysts, especially from Wednesday’s tariff and Fed updates.

A positive turn in global trade tensions or dovish monetary signals could propel crypto markets toward fresh all-time highs.

Make money without lifting your fingers: Start using a world-class auto trading solution.

EightCap, your trusted Partner in CFDs, Cryptocurrencies and Stocks.