Canadian Dollar Holds Steady as Market Awaits Clear Direction

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains trapped in a tight trading band near the 1.40 level, with little momentum to push the currency higher or lower. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret said the market is still waiting for a meaningful catalyst that could break the pair out of its holding pattern.

CAD Stalls as Markets Remain Quiet

With no major overnight news or economic surprises, investors see no reason to shift positions.

According to Scotiabank, the USD/CAD pair continues to trade well above the bank’s fair value model, which sits at 1.3854, making the current level more than one standard deviation overvalued.

Attempts to move lower have consistently faltered.

The pair has failed to sustain a break under 1.40, while rallies toward 1.4050 late last week also struggled to gain traction.Technical Picture Sends Mixed Messages

Bearish Signal on the Weekly Chart

Earlier in November, USD/CAD reversed from 1.4140, forming a classic shooting star pattern — a sign that bullish momentum may be weakening.

Watch this USDCAD technical and order‑flow breakdown to see why the CAD remains trapped near 1.40.

Bullish Action on the Daily Chart

Last Thursday’s bounce off the 40-day moving average (1.3991) created a bullish outside-day reversal.

This suggests buyers are still defending key support areas.

Oscillators Remain Neutral

The daily DMI indicator continues to lean slightly in favor of the USD, but the signal is losing strength.

Scotiabank notes that the intraday oscillator is flat, confirming a lack of conviction.

Range Trading Likely to Continue

With trend signals pulling in opposite directions, USD/CAD may continue its sideways, choppy behavior in the short term.

A clear breakout will likely require the pair to:

• Push above 1.4080, opening the door to retest 1.4140–1.4150, or
• Break below 1.3980–1.3990, which could trigger a slide toward 1.3900–1.3950.

Until then, the CAD remains stuck in neutral, waiting for fresh economic data or a market-moving event to take control of direction.

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