Bitcoin: The Million-Dollar Bet and the Race Against Time

In 2017, Bitcoin enthusiasts made some crazy bets. John McAfee promised to eat his own private part if Bitcoin didn’t reach $1 million per BTC by 2020. Many others, including Chamath Palihapitiya, Harold Burger, Wences Casares, and Raoul Pal, predicted that Bitcoin would hit $1 million in five to 20 years. These predictions seemed outlandish, but last week, Balaji Srinivasan, an entrepreneur and investor, made an even crazier bet.

Bitcoin to $1 Million in 90 Days

Srinivasan is betting $1 million US dollars that Bitcoin will be worth $1 million in 90 days or less. He believes that trillions of new dollars will devalue the US dollar, leading to hyperinflation. The rush out of the dollar and into Bitcoin will cause it to skyrocket to $1 million. While his bet is more about the dollar than Bitcoin, the race against time to see if he’s right is on.

I will take that bet.
You buy 1 BTC.
I will send $1M USD.
This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k.
The term is 90 days.
All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation.
If someone knows how to do this… https://t.co/hhPr522PQu pic.twitter.com/6Aav9KeJpe

— Balaji (@balajis) March 17, 2023

For Bitcoin to reach $1 million, its market cap must reach $20 trillion. This is twice as much as gold, and it’s not impossible, but it’s definitely a stretch. Even if 1.75% of all the money in the world got sucked into Bitcoin, it would still only hit $1 million. So, is this bet plausible? Probably not.

Srinivasan’s Bet and His Motivation

It’s true that a fiat confidence crisis is coming, but predicting exactly when it’ll happen is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. However, Balaji isn’t making this bet just to be a daredevil. He’s ringing the fire alarm to alert people to the current risks in the system. As he himself admits, “I’d rather be the guy overreacting before the crisis than after. Those who overreact after getting screwed.”

It’s worth noting that Balaji is no stranger to Bitcoin and has quite the reputation in the industry. He was the former chief technology officer at Coinbase and has a number of nine-figure exits as a founder of companies. He also believes that the central banks, regulators, and banks themselves knew a huge crash was coming and are to blame for the current state of affairs.

But let’s get real here. Even if Balaji’s prediction comes true, is Bitcoin really going to be the biggest benefactor? It’s hard to say. Bitcoin has been around for over a decade, and its value has fluctuated wildly during that time. While it’s true that Bitcoin is a relatively safe investment compared to traditional currencies, predicting that it will reach $1 million in just 90 days seems like a tall order.

Conclusion

Balaji Srinivasan’s bet is a bold one, but it’s unlikely to come to fruition. While it’s true that a fiat confidence crisis is coming, predicting exactly when it’ll happen is difficult. Balaji’s bet is more about drawing attention to the current risks in the system, and we should take notice. Who knows, maybe in the future we’ll look back at this bet and realize that he was onto something. Until then, it’s probably best to take his bet with a grain of salt and keep an eye on the market.