Bitcoin Options Expiry: Will Today’s Event Shift Market Dynamics?

Bitcoin options expiry day has arrived once more, with spot markets maintaining a quiet stance—could this be the calm before the storm?

Today, Friday, August 23, sees the expiration of approximately 18,400 Bitcoin options contracts, holding a notional value of about $1.1 billion.

This week’s options expiry event is smaller compared to last week’s, suggesting its impact on spot markets may be minimal. However, the larger month-end expiry set for next week carries a substantial notional value of $3.5 billion.

Bitcoin Options Expiry Overview

This week, the Bitcoin options contracts carry a put/call ratio of 0.83, indicating a close alignment between long and short positions, with slightly more long (call) contracts set to expire than shorts (puts). The max pain level, where the most losses could occur, is at $60,000, aligning closely with current spot prices.

Open interest, representing the value of contracts yet to expire, remains significant at strike prices above $70,000, according to Deribit. Additionally, there is approximately $967 million in open interest at the $100,000 strike price, with bullish traders holding out for a significant BTC price surge.

On August 22, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live remarked that this week’s macro events and data “did not bring too many waves.” The company noted a continued decline in the historical volatility (RV) of cryptocurrencies, adding that the options market’s expectations for future volatility are also gradually decreasing.

Alongside today’s Bitcoin options expiry, 140,000 Ethereum options are also set to expire. These contracts hold a notional value of $370 million, with a put/call ratio of 0.93 and a max pain level of $2,625.

Crypto Market Outlook

Given the modest scale of today’s options expiry and relatively stable market conditions, a significant impact is unlikely unless today’s Fed speech at Jackson Hole delivers unexpected news.

The total crypto market capitalization has remained steady at $2.24 trillion, continuing its gradual decline since mid-March. Bitcoin has maintained a position above $60,000 for the last 24 hours, trading at $60,654 at the time of writing.

Ethereum saw a 1.2% increase on the day, trading at $2,634 during the Friday morning Asian session.

Altcoins generally performed well, with Binance Coin (BNB), Avalanche (AVAX), and Near Protocol (NEAR) leading the market.

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