AUDJPY Retraces to Point of Emergence

Market Analysis – September 25

AUDJPY has risen back to the Point of Emergence (POE) from its previous bearish displacement on the 24-hour chart. This level marks a critical Area of Interest (AOI), where the potential for a reversal looms as the market looks to resume its broader downward trend. Traders will closely monitor this region for signs of a shift in momentum.

Key Levels for AUDJPY

Demand Level: 96.110, 91.420, 85.000
Supply Levels: 99.210, 102.620, 108.000

AUDJPY Long-Term Trend: Bearish

Following a pullback to the supply zone near 91.210, the bearish trend continued, with a notable bearish displacement taking shape. As the price reached 93.420, the Stochastic indicator revealed seller exhaustion, coinciding with support from the lower Bollinger Band, which led to the formation of a swing low. This pullback from the swing low triggered a recovery phase.

Since then, the price has ascended from 92.420 to the POE at 99.200. The bearish order block at this level could act as resistance, and if invalidated, it may confirm a bearish shift. Sellers could take advantage of this zone, as the price sits in a premium area, offering the potential for profitable short trades.

AUDJPY Short-Term Trend: Bullish

On the 4-hour chart, the recent price rise from 93.420 has formed a strong bullish trend. However, both the daily and lower timeframes indicate overbought conditions based on the Stochastic indicator. A Change of Character (ChoCh) is expected around the AOI, signalling an opportunity for sellers to enter short positions, targeting a move back toward the swing low at 94.420. This would align with the larger bearish outlook, assuming the reversal materializes as anticipated.