AUD/USD Extends Winning Streak as Traders Eye Key U.S. Jobs Report

The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the new trading week on a positive note, notching its fifth consecutive daily gain against the U.S. Dollar (USD). On Monday, AUD/USD climbed another 0.2%, supported by broad U.S. Dollar weakness and rising market bets that Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report could reinforce the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.

Key Highlights

• AUD/USD posts its fifth straight bullish session, up 0.2% on Monday.
• U.S. Dollar weakens ahead of critical NFP jobs data due Friday.
• Australian GDP and U.S. PMI figures may have limited market impact compared to NFP.
• Technicals show AUD/USD nearing resistance at 0.6550, with firm support at 0.6460 (200-day EMA).

Dollar Weakness Boosts Aussie Momentum

The U.S. Dollar remains under pressure as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will be forced to ease monetary policy. The NFP report due Friday is expected to be a pivotal event, especially after previous job gains were sharply revised lower. Traders are betting that continued labor market softness could push the Fed closer to a rate cut decision at its September 17 meeting.

Market flows were quieter on Monday due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday, but sentiment still leaned in favor of the Australian Dollar, extending last week’s bullish momentum.

Data Calendar: Aussie GDP vs. U.S. NFP

Australia’s Q2 GDP growth figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday, with economists forecasting a modest 0.5% QoQ increase. However, the impact may be limited as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious, with recent inflation data showing renewed price pressures—dampening expectations of an immediate RBA rate cut.

In the U.S., attention will shift to:

• Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 49.0 vs. 48.0 prior).
• Wednesday: JOLTS job openings and Fed speeches.
• Thursday: ISM Services PMI (expected 51.0 vs. 50.1 prior).
• Friday: NFP jobs report, the week’s main market mover.

With the Fed balancing inflation risks against slowing employment, traders expect Friday’s jobs numbers to set the tone for near-term policy moves.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is approaching the upper boundary of its long-running consolidation zone near 0.6550. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), sitting around 0.6460, continues to provide solid support.

The pair has gained over 2% from August’s swing low near 0.6415. However, after rallying in six of the past seven sessions, some analysts warn that bullish momentum may be losing steam.

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