As US Dollar Grapples With Risk Sentiment, Overall Market Stays Mixed

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US Dollar inflation expectations around the world continue to edge up as the constant build-up of price pressures in factory input costs as well as soaring commodity prices are making investors question the FED’s narrative that the current surge in inflation will be temporary.

Commodity currencies are currently trading as the weaker ones, as risk markets soften. The major European indexes are slightly in the red. Although futures in the United States point to a lower open. The yen is the strongest currency, followed by the Swiss Franc, and finally the US dollar. On the other hand, significant pairs and crosses stay mixed as the US dollar grapples with risk sentiment.

The overall state of business activity in the US Empire State Manufacturing fell to 24.3 in May from 26.3, which is above expectations of 24.0. Looking at some of the details, new orders rose from 26.9 to 28.9. Shipments increased from 25.0 to 29.7. Delivery time dropped from 28.1 to 23.6. Inventories fell from 11.6 to 7.1. The price paid increased from 74.7 to 83.5.

The prices received also increased from 34.9 to 37.1. The number of employees decreased slightly from 13.9 to 13.6. The average workweek of employees increased markedly from 12.7 to 18.7. The New York Fed noted that “manufacturing activity grew at a steady pace.” “Both price indices have reached record highs.”

US Dollar Expected To Fall As Euro, Pound Maintain Gains

Although the US dollar has reversed much of its losses from the first quarter of this year in the last month. The FX market’s drivers are pointing in the direction of planned policy normalization, but there is still a long way to go.

Financial inflation indicators, including 10-year break-even US inflation (2.54%), jumped to multi-year highs after the shocking release of the US CPI on Wednesday. Despite this, the “inflationary panic” gradually subsided on Thursday and Friday. Investors wondered how many inflationary risks had already been taken into account. At the same time, data on business activity in the US was mixed or slightly weaker than expected, as retail sales growth in the US (forecast 0.0% from 9.8% in March vs. 1.0% expectations) took a breather after jump caused by stimuli.

However, given the US dollar’s lack of direction today, some traders might be sitting on the sidelines ahead of the minutes. Last night, the dollar index was unchanged, barely recovering from Friday’s drop. The euro and the pound were slightly higher, with little reaction to reports that an Indian version of Covid has begun to spread in the United Kingdom, potentially delaying the next step of the reopening in June.

The UK government has responded by increasing vaccines in the affected regions, which may explain why the pound and euro have held their ground while the Australian and New Zealand dollars have fallen sharply today.