After a Strong Inflation Reading, the Dollar Soars

The dollar has risen in the early US session, bolstered by higher-than-expected inflation figures. Inflation in the core PCE reached its highest level since 1991. The greenback is likely to close the week on a high note, with the possibility of ending as the strongest, given the present buying momentum. Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, are, on the other hand, in rapid decline. The yen, on the other hand, is more likely to finish the week with the poorest performance.

In April, personal income in the United States fell -13.1 percent mom, or USD 3.21 trillion, somewhat better than the -14.0 percent mom forecast. Personal spending increased 0.5 percent mom, or USD 80.3 billion, falling short of the 0.6 percent mom forecast.

The headline PCE price index increased by 3.6 percent year over year, up from 2.4 percent year over year, exceeding expectations of 2.2 percent year over year. The core PCE price index also increased to 3.1 percent year over year, up from 1.9 percent year over year, exceeding expectations of 3.0 percent year over year. The goods trade deficit reduced to USD -85.2 billion in April, compared to an expectation of USD -92.0 billion.

US Unemployment Rate Expected To Resume Downward Trajectory

“Payrolls climbed considerably by pre-covid standards,” says one analyst, “but we see some downside risk vs the consensus again this month,” says another.

“Our projections show a net reduction of 7.7 million people from pre-COVID levels. After an unexpected uptick in April, the unemployment rate is likely to resume its downward trajectory.”

After a fall in April, both ISM indexes are expected to rise in May. Our projection for the manufacturing index is lower than March’s 64.7, a 37-year high, but we expect the services index to reclaim March’s all-time high of 63.7. (The data begins in 1997.) As the benefits of fiscal stimulus and reopening fade, we expect the indexes to fall in the months ahead.