After a 10% Rise, What’s Next for the Stock Market in 2024?

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With a 10% increase in the S&P 500 during the first three months of the year, marking record highs on 22 days, what’s the next move? Looking ahead, the market could be propelled further by upcoming earnings announcements from major US corporations.

These reports, along with forecasts for the next quarter and the entire year, have the potential to drive market momentum upwards, particularly if they exceed expectations.

The market’s trajectory is heavily influenced by the actions of the Federal Reserve. The central bank has indicated that investors shouldn’t anticipate a rate cut until the middle of the year.

The decision to cut rates, and the extent of such cuts throughout 2024, hinges on the Fed’s outlook on whether to pursue aggressive measures, which ironically would be prompted by economic weakening.

Investors will face a dilemma, as either scenario—a slowdown in the economy or aggressive rate cuts—could negatively impact the stock market.

The upward trend in crude oil prices has begun, rising from $71 earlier in the year to the current $81. Potential disruptions in the Middle East, such as supply cuts due to conflicts or attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine, along with decreased traffic through the Suez Canal, could further impact supply.

Since February 2022, unemployment has consistently remained below 4%, with this February recording a rate of 3.9%. Any increase in this figure would indicate a potential economic slowdown.

Paradoxically, if the jobless rate remains low or decreases further, it could raise concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response to it.

Investment banks and economists have begun predicting the final trading value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2024. However, despite their expertise, these forecasts are ultimately speculative guesses.

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