US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October 2026, above the 0.3% forecast, while core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected. The hotter print pushed Treasury yields and the US dollar higher, knocked spot gold down about 2% to near $4,050 and left markets fully pricing a quarter-point Federal Reserve hike in December, with some bets on a half-point move.
Key takeaways
- Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m in October (forecast 0.3%, September 0.6%); core CPI rose 0.3% (forecast 0.2%), its third straight 0.3% gain.
- No annual inflation rate was published: the 2025 government shutdown left the BLS without October 2025 data to compare against.
- CME FedWatch showed a December hike fully priced after the data, with half-point odds rising to roughly 14% from near zero.
- The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 15 basis points to 4.69%; the dollar index rose 0.3% to around 102.
- Gold fell about 2% to near $4,050, EUR/USD slipped below 1.12, Nasdaq lost about 1% early and Bitcoin eased to around $73,500.
What did the October 2026 CPI report show?
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released October CPI on Tuesday at 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT). According to CNBC, the index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month against a Dow Jones consensus of 0.3%, slowing from September’s 0.6%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Reuters reported the same misses against its own poll.
The gains were broad. Shelter rose 0.3% and made up more than 30% of the headline increase, per the BLS. Food rose 0.5%, energy 0.7% and electricity 0.9%, and transportation services climbed 0.8%. Used cars fell 1.2%. Kitco noted core has now risen 0.3% in each of the past three months.
Why is there no annual CPI rate this month?
The BLS did not publish year-on-year figures because the federal government shutdown in October 2025 stopped price collection that month, leaving no comparison base. For context, Reuters noted annual CPI was 3.7% in September, and NPR cited a Cleveland Fed estimate of 3.7% for October. That is an estimate, not an official figure.
How did markets react to the hot CPI?
Markets repriced in a hawkish direction. Yields and the dollar rose, while gold, stocks and crypto fell. Reuters reported the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield up 15 basis points at 4.69%, the 10-year up 9 basis points at 4.96%, and in early trade the Nasdaq down 1% and the S&P 500 down 0.6%.
| Market | Post-CPI snapshot (10 Nov) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US dollar index (DXY) | +0.3% to 102.01 | Reuters |
| EUR/USD | −0.33% at 1.1186 | Reuters via Euronext |
| Spot gold | −2.1% to $4,052.90 (13:30 GMT) | Anadolu Agency |
| Bitcoin | Near $73,500, down about 1% | Bitcoin Magazine |
| WTI crude | −2.4% near $84.47 | investingLive |
Gold: Monday’s gains erased
Gold took the biggest hit among the majors. Kitco quoted spot gold at $4,054.90, down 2% on the day, and FXStreet said the drop erased Monday’s move to a high near $4,148. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no interest. More on bullion in our gold news section.
EUR/USD and the dollar
EUR/USD slipped below 1.12. FXStreet tied the move to a widening gap between Fed and ECB policy expectations. Follow the pair on our EUR/USD news page and the wider forex news hub.
Bitcoin and oil
Crypto followed risk assets lower. BeInCrypto reported about $200 million of leveraged crypto positions liquidated in the five minutes after the release, and Bitcoin Magazine said analysts are watching $73,000. Oil, meanwhile, is moving on its own story: CNBC reported Brent dipped below $90 for the first time since August on hopes of US–Iran de-escalation. See Bitcoin news and our oil trading hub.
What does this mean for the Fed in December?
At its October meeting, the Fed held its benchmark range at 3.75%–4.00% on a 10–2 vote, CNBC noted. After the CPI data, CNBC said traders fully priced a quarter-point hike at the 8–9 December meeting and put the odds of a half-point move at 13.6%, up from around zero. FXStreet cited 14.7% for the larger move later in the session. A 25-basis-point hike would take the range to 4.00%–4.25%.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller had set the tone hours before the release. Speaking in London, he said, as quoted by Kitco: “I believe a 50-basis-point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.” Edward Jones senior economist James McCann told Reuters the report “cements” at least a quarter-point move and that “the bigger debate now is whether the Fed needs to do a 50-basis point move.”
The counter-argument is oil. Spartan Capital’s Peter Cardillo told Reuters that if crude holds near current levels, cheaper energy could start to show up in the data within 30 to 40 days.
What it means for traders: levels and catalysts to watch
This is market context, not a trade recommendation. Post-data moves can reverse quickly, and earlier reactions do not predict the next one.
- EUR/USD: FXStreet flags resistance around 1.1196 and 1.1227, with a horizontal cap near 1.1275, and support around 1.1100.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Kitco’s technical note lists first support near $4,051 and then about $4,022, with resistance at roughly $4,089 and $4,148.
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin Magazine cites $73,000 as the line analysts are watching; a daily close below it could open $70,000, while $80,000 is the upside reference.
- Calendar: US PPI is due Friday, 13 November (BLS schedule), and the Fed’s October minutes follow on 18 November, per Bitcoin Magazine.
Spreads can widen around releases like these. Our trading-the-news strategy guide covers risk sizing around a print, and the beginners forex course starts from first principles. To follow prices, the calendar and research in one place, try the read-only Learn2Trade Terminal free for 14 days; it does not connect to a brokerage account. Educational trade ideas are on our forex signals and crypto signals pages. For broker access, one option is AvaTrade. Affiliate disclosure: we may earn a commission if you open an account via this link, at no extra cost to you.
FAQ
What was US CPI for October 2026?
US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in October 2026, above the 0.3% forecast and down from September’s 0.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, according to BLS data reported by CNBC and Reuters on 10 November 2026.
Why was there no annual inflation rate in the October CPI report?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics could not calculate 12-month changes because the October 2025 government shutdown halted price collection, so there is no base month for comparison. Only monthly changes and some item-level annual figures were published.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
Markets now fully price a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s 8–9 December meeting, based on CME FedWatch data cited by CNBC, with odds of a 50-basis-point move at around 14%. Market pricing is not a guarantee. PPI on 13 November and the Fed minutes on 18 November could shift expectations.
Why did gold fall after the CPI data?
Hotter inflation raised expectations of tighter Fed policy, which lifted Treasury yields and the dollar. That increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Spot gold fell about 2% to near $4,050 an ounce, according to Kitco and Anadolu Agency.
How did EUR/USD react to the US CPI release?
EUR/USD fell about 0.3% to around 1.1186, slipping below 1.12 as the dollar index rose 0.3% to roughly 102, Reuters reported. Analysts linked the move to the widening gap between Fed and ECB policy expectations.
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