Icala elibhekene ne-Fed - Ingabe i-United States idinga ibhange eliphakathi?

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ITHELELELI

IZIPHUMA

ISINGENISO
Omunye waleyo mibuzo abanye abantu abazibuza yona… kodwa wonke umuntu wesaba kakhulu ukubuza. (Njengegama likamakhelwane wakho ngemva kokuthi sawubona ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule.)

Ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa i-Federal Reserve ebonakala ikhona yonke indawo, ukubaluleka, kanye nodumo emnothweni waseMelika.

Ukukubeka kungabaza ukuhlobana kwe-Fed kwabezindaba zezimali kulingana nokucela i-jalapenos (noma uphayinaphu!) ku-pizza…

Ukuhlambalaza.

Kodwa namuhla, sizokwenza lokho kanye. (I-Fed, ukucaca. I-pizza yethu ihlala ihlanzekile.)

Ngezansi, uzakwethu uJim Rickards ugebenga impande bese ebuza:

"Ingabe i-Federal Reserve System yenza umsebenzi owusizo mayelana nokukhula komnotho, ukuzinza kwezezimali, noma ukudala imisebenzi?"

Izimpendulo zakhe zingakumangaza.

Hlola ngezansi.

Qhubeka ufunde.” - UChris Campbell

Kungani Siyidinga Ngisho I-Fed?
Ngokuphawula okungapheli kwenqubomgomo ye-Fed ehlinzeka “ngesikhuthazo” noma “ukunciphisa ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi” noma “ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali,” kukhona ukuphawula okuncane ngokumangazayo kokuthi i-Fed ingakwazi ngempela ukwenza noma iyiphi yalezo zinto.

Futhi, uma bekwazi, noma benza umsebenzi omuhle ngakho. Cishe akekho obuza umbuzo wokuthi ngabe sidinga ngisho ne-Federal Reserve System kwasekuqaleni, futhi uma kunjalo, ngani.
Icala elibhekene ne-Fed - Ingabe i-United States idinga ibhange eliphakathi? I-Fed "Stimulus" Akusona Isikhuthazo
Ubufakazi obunamandla bokusebenza kwe-Fed bucacile. I-Fed ayikwazi ukugqugquzela umnotho. Isidingo esisodwa kuphela sicabangele isikhathi esisuka ku-2009 kuya ku-2019. Phakathi naleyo minyaka eyishumi, umnotho wase-US wawusimama kusukela ekuwohlokeni okukhulu komnotho ngo-2007 - 2009. Lokhu kwakuhlanganisa ukwethuka okukhulu kwezezimali phakathi no-2008 nokwehluleka okulandelanayo kwe-Bear Stearns, u-Fannie. Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers kanye ne-AIG.

Siphinde sabhekana nokucishe kuhluleke kukaGoldman Sachs noMorgan Stanley, okwakuyizinduna ezilandelayo ezawa kwaze kwaba yilapho i-Fed ibenza izinkampani zamabhange futhi yabahlenga kanye noCiti, Wells Fargo, kanye no-JP Morgan.

Isilinganiso sokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka kukho konke ukutholwa kusukela ngeMpi Yezwe II bekungaphezudlwana kuka-4.2%. Isilinganiso sokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka kukho konke ukubuyiswa kusukela ngo-1980 sasingu-3.75%. Isilinganiso sokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka ngo-2009 - 2019 sasingu-2.1%.

Lokhu bekuwukuthola okubuthakathaka kakhulu emlandweni wase-US.

Kufike ngesikhathi lapho i-Fed inweba khona ibhalansi yayo isuka ku-$800 billion yaya ku-$4.5 trillion isebenzisa i-quantitative easing (“QE”) ezinhlelweni ezaziwa nge-QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, futhi ngokusobala silahlekelwe QEs kusukela lapho.

Awusakwazi ukuzwa igama elithi “QE”. Lokho kungenxa yokuthi ayisebenzi. Amaphepha amaningi ocwaningo osomnotho be-Fed nabangewona abe-Fed afinyelele kuleso siphetho. Ngamafuphi, ukuphrinta imali ye-Fed kwenza hhayi kunomthelela ekukhuleni futhi akukhuthazi.

Kuyafana nokuncishiswa kwezinga lenzalo. Khumbula inqubomgomo yezinga lenzalo enguziro (ZIRP)? I-Fed ibambe izilinganiso zenzalo ku-zero ukusuka kuZibandlela wezi-2008 kuya kuZibandlela wezi-2015, futhi ayizange iwakhuphule nhlobo kwaze kwaba ngu-2017. Leso sikhathi se-ZIRP sihambisana nokukhula kwe-anemic ekululameni kusukela ngo-2009 - 2019. Futhi, lobu ubufakazi obuqinile bokuthi i-ZIRP ine awekho amandla ashukumisayo.

Ukwehla komnotho nokwandiswa kwenzeka; bayingxenye yomjikelezo webhizinisi. Kodwa, i-Fed ayinalutho olutheni nazo. Imijikelezo yebhizinisi iqhutshwa izehlakalo ezinkulu ezinjengokugqugquzelwa kwangemva kwempi, ukushaqeka kokuhlinzeka, inqubomgomo yezimali, ubhubhane, amaphutha okulawula, ukuzethemba kwabathengi, ukuphumelela kwezobuchwepheshe, kanye nezibalo zabantu.

I-Fed Ilungile Ekulimazeni Umnotho
I-Fed ayihlangene nhlobo nanoma yimuphi walabo bashayeli. Eqinisweni, wonke umlando we-Fed uwukuphutha kwenqubomgomo eyodwa ngemva kwenye mayelana nezinkomba zomjikelezo webhizinisi ezingafundiwe kahle.

I-Fed yabangela ngokusobala Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho ngokuqinisa inqubomgomo yezimali ngo-1927 - 1929 ngaphambi kokuwa kwemakethe yamasheya ka-Okthoba 1929. I-Fed yandisa lokho kwehla komnotho ngokugcina inqubomgomo iqine kakhulu.

I-US yavela ekuwohlokeni komnotho kokuqala (1929-1932) kwe-Great Depression lapho i-FDR yehlisa inani ledola ngokumelene negolide ngo-1933. ukwehla okukhulu komnotho ngo-1933-1936.

Kwakuyilokhu kulandelana kokuwohloka komnotho okubili okwesibili kwenzeka ngaphambi kokuba silulame kokokuqala okwaguqula sonke isikhathi saba Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho (1929-1940). Esinye isiphetho ukuthi i-Fed inamandla alinganiselwe okusiza umnotho kodwa inhle kakhulu ekulimazeni.

Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi i-US ibe namabhange amakhulu amathathu kanye nezikhathi ezinde ngaphandle kwebhange eliphakathi. Kusukela ngo-George Washington ngo-1789, i-US yayingenalo ibhange elikhulu kwaze kwaba ngu-1791. Ngalowo nyaka, ibhange lokuqala lase-US elibizwa ngokuthi iBhange Lase-United States, elaziwa kakhulu ngokuthi iBhange Lokuqala Lase-United States laqashwa yi-US Congress. Yaqashwa iminyaka engu-20 kwaze kwaba ngu-1811.

Ibhange Lokuqala Lase-United States alizange lisethe inqubomgomo yezimali noma izilinganiso zenzalo, alizange lilawule amanye amabhange, alizange libe nemali egciniwe eyeqile, futhi alizange lisebenze njengombolekisi wento yokugcina.
Icala elibhekene ne-Fed - Ingabe i-United States idinga ibhange eliphakathi? Kodwa yayivunyelwe ukuboleka uhulumeni wase-United States imali, futhi kwaba iphuzu. I-First Bank ingenza kube lula impumelelo yohlelo luka-Alexander Hamilton lokukhipha isikweletu sikahulumeni futhi yenze imakethe yakhe entsha yebhondi kahulumeni iqale phansi ngokubonisa ukuthi i-US ingumuntu oboleka isikweletu. Ngaleso sici, kwaba yimpumelelo.

I-First Bank charter ayizange ivuselelwe yiCongress ngo-1811. Lesi sikhathi sesibili sokungabikho kwebhange elikhulu e-US asizange sihlale isikhathi eside. Impi ka-1812, eyaliwa kusukela ngo-1812 kuya ku-1815, yabeka ubunzima obukhulu ekuxhasweni kwezimali zase-US. Isikweletu sikazwelonke sase-US sikhuphuke sisuka ku-$45 million ngo-1812 saya ku-$127 million ngo-1815.

Lesi simo sezezimali esicindezelayo senza osopolitiki abaningi, kuhlanganise noMongameli James Madison, basekela ukwakhiwa kweBhange Lesibili Lase-United States. Yabhalwa nguMthetho weCongress ngo-1816 isikhathi esiyiminyaka engamashumi amabili. I-Second Bank yaqala ukusebenza ePhiladelphia ngoJanuwari 7, 1817. Umuntu ohamba phambili eBhange Lesibili kwakunguNicholas Biddle wasePhiladelphia, owayengumongameli webhange kusukela ngo-1823 kuya ku-1836.

I-Second Bank yaqala kanzima ngokuqhuba inqubomgomo yemali elula ngo-1817 no-1818, okwaholela ekuvuthweni komhlaba kanye nokuqhuma okugcina ngo-Panic ka-1819. , kanye nezintengo zempahla ezishayisanayo.

Kwaze kwaba yilapho u-Nicholas Biddle eba uMongameli webhange ngo-1823 lapho iBhange Lesibili lathola khona inqubomgomo nge-keel ngisho. I-Biddle ihlonishwa ngokudala uhlobo lwemali oluzwakalayo kanye nenqubomgomo yemali emaphakathi kusukela ngo-1823 kuya ku-1833, eyasiza i-US ukuthi isekele umnotho okhulayo ngaleso sikhathi.

U-Andrew Jackson waba nguMongameli wase-US ngo-1829 futhi ngokushesha waqala ukubhubhisa iBhange Lesibili. I-charter yalo yayihlelelwe ukuthi iphele ngo-1836. I-recharter yebhange yaba udaba olubalulekile okhethweni luka-1832 emzabalazweni owawubizwa ngokuthi iMpi Yamabhange.

UJackson uwine ukuqokwa kabusha. Uhlasele ibhange ngokukhipha amadiphozithi e-federal futhi edlulisela imali entsha ye-federal kumabhange azimele akhethiwe. UJackson uvimbele umthethosivivinywa wokuqamba kabusha futhi i-veto yavunywa. I-Second Bank yayeka ukuba khona ne-charter yenhlangano ngoFebhuwari 1836.

Iminyaka engu-77 kusukela ngo-1836 kuya ku-1913, i-US yayingenalo ibhange eliphakathi. Akungabazeki ukuthi lesi kwakungesinye sezikhathi ezinkulu nezinde kakhulu zokuchuma komnotho emlandweni womhlaba.

Kube nokuwohloka komnotho okuyishumi nesithupha ngalesi sikhathi, kanye nokwethuka kwezezimali okuyisithupha (1857, 1873, 1893, 1896, 1907, and 1910). Noma kunjalo, umkhuba usuwonke ekukhuleni wawumuhle futhi lokhu kukhula ngokuvamile kwakungewona ukwehla kwamandla emali futhi kugqugquzelwa ukusungulwa okusha kwezobuchwepheshe. Lezi zazihlanganisa ojantshi besitimela, i-telegraph, ucingo, izinto zasepulazini, izimoto, izakhiwo eziphakeme, ugesi namakhebula adlula ulwandle.

Ukuwohloka komnotho bekuvame kakhulu kumabhange amakhulu njengangaphandle. Eminyakeni eyi-110 selokhu kwasungulwa i-Federal Reserve ngo-1913, i-US yabhekana nokuwohloka komnotho noma ukudangala izikhathi ezingu-20 kanye nokwethuka kwezezimali okuhlanu, (1929, 1987, 1994, 1998, and 2008).

Phakathi neminyaka engu-77 ngaphandle kwebhange elikhulu (1836-1913), kwakukhona ukwehla komnotho okukodwa njalo eminyakeni engu-4.8 ngokwesilinganiso. Phakathi neminyaka eyi-110 kusukela kwasungulwa i-Federal Reserve (1913-2023), kube nokuwohloka komnotho okukodwa njalo eminyakeni engu-5.5. (Isinqumo sokuthi ingxenye yokuqala ka-2022 kwaba ukuwohloka komnotho okusekelwe kumakota amabili alandelanayo okwehla kwamandla emali, futhi ukuvela kokuwohloka komnotho okusha kulo nyaka kuzokwehlisa lezo zikhathi zokuwohloka komnotho okukodwa njalo eminyakeni engu-5.0).

Lokho akuwona umehluko obalulekile ngokwezibalo ochungechungeni lwesikhathi lweminyaka engu-187, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ubunzima boKuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho (1929-1940), okwenzeka ewashini le-Fed. Umphumela uwukuhlobana okuphezulu phakathi kwemvamisa yokuwohloka komnotho kanye nangaphandle kwebhange elimaphakathi.

Imfihlo Yangempela Ngemuva Kwe-Federal Reserve
Lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi i-Fed kanye nezinqubomgomo zayo zenzalo azihlangene kakhulu nokwehla komnotho. Ukwehla komnotho kuqhutshwa umjikelezo webhizinisi kanye nenqubomgomo yezimali. I-Fed ingenza ukwehla komnotho kube kubi kakhulu, kepha ayikwazi ukukwelapha. Umnotho uyakwenza lokho ngokwawo.

Uma sibheka, asiyidingi iFederal Reserve ukuze ibeke amanani enzalo. Imakethe ibonakala yenza umsebenzi omuhle wokuzibekela amanani iyodwa. Asiyidingi i-Federal Reserve ukuvimbela ukwehla komnotho njengoba kwenzeka kaningi ngenxa yezizathu ezingahlangene ne-Fed. Asiyidingi i-Federal Reserve ukuze iqinisekise ukukhula njengoba i-US ibe nokukhula okumangalisayo kusukela ngo-1836 kuya ku-1913 ngaphandle kwebhange eliphakathi.

Uma i-Federal Reserve ingenayo injongo ebalulekile yokusetha izilinganiso zenzalo, ukuvimbela ukwehla komnotho, noma ukukhula komshuwalense, kungani sine-Federal Reserve nhlobo?

Impendulo ibuyela emuva ekulandeleni okungavamile kwezenzakalo kusukela ngo-1906 kuya ku-1913. Lezi zenzakalo zembula injongo yangempela kanye nemfihlo yangempela ye-Federal Reserve.

Ngo-April 18, 1906, kwaba nokuzamazama komhlaba okukhulu nomlilo owacekela phansi iDolobha laseSan Francisco. Bangaphezu kuka-3,000 abantu abashonile kwathi ngaphezulu kwama-80% edolobha lacekelwa phansi. Izinkampani zomshwalense zaqala ngokushesha ukuqeda impahla ukuze zithole ukheshi ukuze zikhokhele izimangalo ebezilindelwe.

Lokhu kuthengisa kufaka ingcindezi kumabhange aseNew York kanye neNew York Stock Exchange nakwezinye izimakethe zezimali empumalanga. Inhlanganisela yengcindezi ye-liquidity kusukela ukuzamazama komhlaba kwase-San Francisco kanye nokulahlekelwa ukuzethemba kusukela ekuweni kwe-Knickerbocker Trust Company eNew York kuholele ekugijimeni kwebhange.

Ekuphakameni kokwethuka ngo-Okthoba 19, 1907, uPierpont Morgan, usomabhizinisi odume kakhulu eMelika futhi oyinhloko ye-JP Morgan & Co., waqala uchungechunge lwemihlangano e-brownstone yakhe eNew York City ekhoneni lika-36th Street naseMadison no. amabhange aphezulu kanye nezikhulu zikahulumeni. Ngobuholi bakhe, uPierpont Morgan wacishe wasindisa yedwa uhlelo lwamabhange e-US.
Icala elibhekene ne-Fed - Ingabe i-United States idinga ibhange eliphakathi? Uhambo Oluyimfihlakalo oluya e-Jekyll Island
Ngokushesha ngemva kokwethuka kuka-1907, amabhange kanye nosopolitiki baqala ukubuza imibuzo esobala. Kwakuzokwenzekani ngokutatazela okulandelayo? UPierpont Morgan wayengeke aphile phakade. (Eqinisweni, uMorgan wafela eRoma ngo-1913). Ubani owayengasindisa uhlelo ngesikhathi esilandelayo lapho amabhange esengozini yokuwa?

Amabhange aphezulu anquma ukuthi kudingeka ibhange elikhulu elisha. Ngokufanelekile, leli bhange bekuzoba ngelalo ngokwalo kodwa lizothola ukwesekwa nguhulumeni wase-US ngendlela yokukwazi ukukhipha imali. Okubaluleke kakhulu, leli bhange elimaphakathi lizokwazi ukusebenza njengombolekisi wamabhange azimele ase-US.

USenator Nelson Aldrich (R-RI) ube ngumpetha wezepolitiki webhange elikhulu elisha. Ngo-1910, u-Aldrich wahlela uhambo oluyimfihlo lokuya eklabhu yangasese ekhethekile e-Jekyll Island, eGeorgia.

Kulolu hambo kwakufakwe u-Frank A. Vanderlip (uMongameli we-National City Bank omele izithakazelo ze-Rockefeller), u-Paul Warburg (uzakwethu e-Kuhn, u-Loeb omele izintshisekelo ze-Jacob Schiff kanye nezezimali zase-Europe), u-Henry Davison (umlingani ku-JP Morgan & Co. emele izithakazelo zakwaMorgan), u-Abram Andrew (usomnotho kanye Nonobhala Ongumsizi Womgcinimafa omele uHulumeni wase-US), kanye noBenjamin Strong (Iphini Likamongameli weBanking Trust kanye nenhloko yakusasa yeFederal Reserve Bank yaseNew York).

Phakathi nesonto, leli qembu labhala lokho kamuva okwaba yi-Federal Reserve Act. Ngaleso sikhathi kwakwaziwa ngokuthi i-Aldrich Plan.

Leli qembu lalazi ukuthi abantu baseMelika babezonda amabhange amakhulu kusukela kwabhubha iBhange Lesibili Lase-United States ngo-1836. Yingakho bengazange babize ukudalwa kwabo ngebhange elikhulu noma iBhange Lase-United States.

Ukuyibiza ngokuthi i-Federal Reserve yayikhohlisa futhi i-anodyne. Kwathatha iminyaka eminingana ukwenza lokhu kube umthetho, kodwa uMthetho wagcina usayinwe nguMongameli uWoodrow Wilson ngezinsuku zokuvala zika-1913. I-Fed ibilokhu inathi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi.

Kuze kube namuhla ama-Federal Reserve Banks ayishumi nambili aphethwe ngasese ngamabhange esifundeni ngasinye. Iziqondiso zinikezwa Ibhodi Lababusi be-Federal Reserve System eqokwe uMongameli wase-US futhi ezinze e-Washington DC. Uhlelo jikelele luyingxube ephelele yezintshisekelo zomphakathi nezizimele.

Inhloso yangempela ye-Federal Reserve ayihlanganise lutho nokusiza umnotho, ukusetha izilinganiso zenzalo, ukwehlisa ukungasebenzi, nanoma yiziphi ezinye izinjongo zenqubomgomo ozwayo futhi ufunda ngazo. Inhloso yangempela kanye nemfihlo ye-Fed wukutakulwa kwamabhange kusetshenziswa imali kahulumeni. Abamabhange babeke izandla zabo emshinini wokunyathelisa.

Ngakho-ke, impendulo emfushane ukuthi i-US ayidingi ibhange eliphakathi. I-US yenza kahle ngaphandle kweyodwa iminyaka engu-77 kusukela ngo-1836 kuya ku-1913. I-Fed ayikwazi ukugqugquzela umnotho. I-Fed ayibangeli umjikelezo webhizinisi (kodwa ingenza izinto zibe zimbi kakhulu futhi ivame ukwenza). I-Fed ayikwazi ukudala imisebenzi.

I-Fed ikhona kuphela ukuze inikeze amabhange amandla okulawula imali kanye nokuzikhulula cishe kanye njalo eminyakeni eyishumi. Konke okunye okuzwayo mayelana nokugqugquzelwa, ukudalwa kwamathuba emisebenzi, inzalo, ukusimama kwezimali, nokunye kuwumsindo nje. Ukuwohloka komnotho okuzayo kungase kuphoqe abanye ukuthi babuze imibuzo enzima futhi banqamule amaphiko e-Fed. Vele ungathembeli kukho.

About the Author: UJim Rickards
Source: AltucherConfidential.com