Ityala elichasene neFed - Ngaba iUnited States idinga ibhanki ephakathi?

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IINKCUKACHA

INTSHAYELELO
Ngomnye wale mibuzo abanye abantu bayazibuza yona… kodwa wonke umntu uyoyika kakhulu ukuyibuza. (Njengegama lommelwane wakho emva kokuba uthi good morning kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo.)

Ngokukodwa xa i-Federal Reserve ibonakala ikhona yonke indawo, ukubaluleka, kunye nodumo kuqoqosho lwaseMelika.

Ukuyibiza ngombuzo malunga nokufaneleka kweFed kumajelo eendaba ezezimali kufana nokucela ijalapenos (okanye ipayinapile!) kwipizza…

Ukunyelisa.

Kodwa namhlanje, siyakwenza kanye loo nto. (I-Fed, ukuba icace. I-pizza yethu ihlala inyulu.)

Apha ngezantsi, ugxa wakhe uJim Rickards uqhekeze ingcambu aze abuze:

Ngaba i-Federal Reserve System yenza umsebenzi oluncedo malunga nokukhula koqoqosho, uzinzo lwezemali, okanye ukudala imisebenzi?

Iimpendulo zakhe zinokukothusa.

Jonga apha ngezantsi.

Qhubeka ufunde.” - UChris Campbell

Kutheni le nto siyifunayo iFed?
Ngezimvo ezingapheliyo malunga nomgaqo-nkqubo weFed obonelela "ngokuvuselela" okanye "ukunciphisa intswela-ngqesho" okanye "ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso," kukho uluvo oluncinci olumangalisayo malunga nokuba i-Fed inokwenza nayiphi na kwezo zinto.

Kwaye, ukuba banako, nokuba benza umsebenzi olungileyo ngayo. Phantse akukho mntu ubuza umbuzo malunga nokuba sifuna i-Federal Reserve System kwindawo yokuqala, kwaye ukuba kunjalo, kutheni.
Ityala elichasene neFed - Ngaba iUnited States idinga ibhanki ephakathi? I-Fed "I-Stimulus" ayiyona into ekhuthazayo
Ubungqina obunamandla bokusebenza kweFed bucacile. I-Fed ayikwazi ukuvuselela uqoqosho. Isidingo esinye sithathela ingqalelo kuphela ixesha elisusela ku-2009 ukuya ku-2019. Ngaloo minyaka ilishumi, uqoqosho lwase-US lwaluchacha kwi-Great Recession ka-2007 – 2009. Oku kuquka ukuxhalaba okukhulu kwezemali ebudeni buka-2008 ngokusilela okulandelelanayo kwe-Bear Stearns, uFannie. UMae, uFreddie Mac, uLehman Brothers kunye ne-AIG.

Siye safumana neentsilelo ezikufutshane zikaGoldman Sachs kunye noMorgan Stanley, ezaziyi-dominos elandelayo yokuwa de i-Fed yabaguqulela kwiinkampani zokubamba iibhanki kwaye yabahlangula ecaleni kweCiti, Wells Fargo, kunye noJP Morgan.

I-avareji yokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka kuzo zonke izinto ezibuyiswayo ukususela kwiMfazwe Yehlabathi yesiBini yayingaphezulu kancinane kwe-4.2%. I-avareji yokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka kuzo zonke iimbuyekezo ukusukela ngo-1980 ibe yi-3.75%. Umndilili wokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka kunyaka ka-2009 ukuya kowama-2019 ube yi-2.1%.

Le yayiyeyona ndlela ibuthathaka yokuchacha kwimbali yase-US.

Ifike ngexesha apho i-Fed yandise ibhalansi yayo ukusuka kwi-800 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuya kwi-4.5 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola ngokusetyenziswa kwe-quantitative easing (“QE”) kwiinkqubo ezaziwa ngokuba yi-QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, kwaye ngokuphandle siphulukene nenani lenani lemali. QEs ukusukela ngoko.

Awufane uve igama elithi "QE" kwakhona. Kungenxa yokuba ayisebenzi. Amaphepha amaninzi ophando yi-Fed kunye ne-non-Fed economists afikelele kweso sigqibo. Ngamafutshane, ukuprintwa kwemali yeFed kwenza hayi igalelo ekukhuleni kwaye ayikhuthazi.

Kuyafana nokucutha izinga lenzala. Khumbula ipolisi yezinga lenzala (ZIRP)? I-Fed ibambe izinga lenzala kwi-zero ukusuka ngoDisemba 2008 ukuya kuDisemba 2015, kwaye emva koko ayizange iphakamise konke konke kude kube ngu-2017. Elo xesha le-ZIRP ligqithise ngokukhula kwe-anemic ekubuyiseleni ukusuka kwi-2009 - 2019. Kwakhona, obu bubungqina obunamandla bokuba i-ZIRP ine akukho mandla avuselelayo.

Ukuhla kwezoqoqosho kunye nokwandiswa kwenzeka; bayinxalenye yomjikelo weshishini. Kodwa, iFed ayinanto yakwenza nabo. Imijikelo yeshishini iqhutywa yiminyhadala emikhulu enje ngokuhlanganisana emva kwemfazwe, ukothuka kobonelelo, umgaqo-nkqubo wemali, ubhubhane, iimpazamo ezilawulayo, ukuzithemba kwabathengi, impumelelo yetekhnoloji, kunye nokubalwa kwabantu.

I-Fed ilungile ekonakalisa uQoqosho
I-Fed ayinanto yakwenza nabo nabaphi na abaqhubi. Enyanisweni, yonke imbali ye-Fed yimpazamo yomgaqo-nkqubo emva komnye ngokungahambi kakuhle kwezikhombisi zomjikelo weshishini.

I-Fed yabangela ngokucacileyo ukuDakumba okukhulu ngokuqinisa umgaqo-mali wezemali kwi-1927 - 1929 ngaphambi kokuwa kwe-stock market ka-Oktobha 1929. I-Fed yandisa ixesha lokudodobala koqoqosho ngokugcina umgaqo-nkqubo unzima kakhulu.

I-US yavela kwi-recession yokuqala (1929-1932) ye-Great Depression xa i-FDR ihlalisa idola ngokumelene negolide ngo-1933. I-stock market yadibana kakhulu ukusuka kwi-1933 ukuya kwi-1936, kodwa i-Fed yaphinda iphosakele ngokuqinisa umgaqo-nkqubo kwi-1937, eyakhokelela ekubeni ukudodobala koqoqosho ngo-1937-1938.

Yayilulandelelwano lokudodobala kwezoqoqosho kabini okwesibini kwenzeka ngaphambi kokuba sibuyele kweyokuqala eyajika lonke elo xesha laba kukuDodobala Okukhulu (1929-1940). Esinye isigqibo sesokuba i-Fed inamandla alinganiselweyo okunceda uqoqosho kodwa ilungile kakhulu ekonakalisa.

Okubangela umdla kukuba, i-US ineebhanki ezingoovimba ezintathu kunye nexesha elide ngaphandle kwebhanki ephakathi. Ukuqala ngoGeorge Washington ngo-1789, i-US yayingenayo ibhanki enguvimba de kwangowe-1791. Ngaloo nyaka, ibhanki yokuqala yase-US ebizwa ngokuba yiBhanki yase-United States, eyaziwa ngokuba yiBhanki yokuQala yase-United States yaqeshwa yi-US Congress. Yaqeshwa iminyaka engama-20 de kwangowe-1811.

IBhanki yokuQala yaseUnited States ayizange ibeke umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali okanye inzala, ayizange ilawule ezinye iibhanki, ayizange ibambe oovimba abangaphezulu, kwaye ayizange isebenze njengombolekisi wendlela yokugqibela.
Ityala elichasene neFed - Ngaba iUnited States idinga ibhanki ephakathi? Kodwa kwakuvunyelwe ukuboleka imali kurhulumente waseUnited States, kwaye yayiyinjongo leyo. I-First Bank inokuququzelela impumelelo yesicwangciso sika-Alexander Hamilton sokukhupha amatyala karhulumente kwaye afumane imarike yakhe entsha yebhondi karhulumente ngokubonisa ukuba i-US yayingumntu obolekayo. Ngaloo ndlela, yaba yimpumelelo.

I-Charter yeBhanki yokuQala ayizange ihlaziywe yiCongress ngo-1811. Eli xesha lesibini lokungabikho kwebhanki ephakathi e-US alizange lihlale ixesha elide. Imfazwe ka-1812, eyaliwa ukususela ngo-1812 ukuya kutsho ngowe-1815, yabeka uxinzelelo olukhulu kwinkxaso-mali yase-US. Ityala lesizwe lase-US lenyuka ukusuka kwi-45 yezigidi zeedola ngo-1812 ukuya kwi-127 yezigidi zeedola ngo-1815.

Le meko yoxinzelelo yezemali yaqinisekisa abaninzi bezopolitiko, kuquka uMongameli uJames Madison, ukuxhasa ukudalwa kweBhanki yesiBini yase-United States. Yabhalwa nguMthetho weNkongolo ngowe-1816 isithuba seminyaka engamashumi amabini. IBhanki yesiBini yaqala ukusebenza ePhiladelphia ngoJanuwari 7, 1817. Umntu ohamba phambili kwiBhanki yesiBini nguNicholas Biddle waseFiladelphia, owayengumongameli webhanki ukusuka kwi-1823 ukuya kwi-1836.

I-Second Bank yaqala kakubi ngokuqhuba umgaqo-nkqubo wemali olula ngo-1817 kunye no-1818, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekuphuhlisweni komhlaba kunye nokuphela kwe-Panic ka-1819. , kunye nokuwohloka kwamaxabiso epropathi.

Kwakungekho de uNicholas Biddle abe nguMongameli webhanki ngo-1823 apho iBhanki yesiBini yafumana umgaqo-nkqubo kwi-even keel. I-Biddle inikwe ikhredithi ngokudala imali ephilileyo kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wemali ophakathi ukusuka kwi-1823 ukuya kwi-1833, eyanceda i-US ukuxhasa uqoqosho olwandayo ngelo xesha.

U-Andrew Jackson waba nguMongameli wase-US ngo-1829 kwaye ngoko nangoko waqalisa ukutshabalalisa iBhanki yesiBini. Umqulu wawo wawumiselwe ukuba uphelelwe ngowe-1836. Umqeshi ngokutsha webhanki waba ngumba ophambili kunyulo luka-1832 kumzabalazo owawubizwa ngokuba yiMfazwe yeBhanki.

UJackson uphumelele unyulo kwakhona. Uhlasele ibhanki ngokurhoxisa iidiphozithi ze-federal kunye nokuphambukisa ingeniso ye-federal entsha kwiibhanki zabucala ezikhethiweyo. UJackson uye wavala ibhili yokutshatha kwaye ivoto yaxhaswa. IBhanki yesiBini yayeka ukubakho nomqulu womanyano ngoFebruwari 1836.

Kwiminyaka eyi-77 ukusuka kwi-1836 ukuya kwi-1913, i-US yayingenayo ibhanki ephakathi. Alithandabuzeki elokuba eli yayilelona xesha likhulu nelide lempumelelo yezoqoqosho kwimbali yehlabathi.

Kubekho ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho okweshumi elinesithandathu kwesi sithuba, kunye noloyiko lwemali oluthandathu (1857, 1873, 1893, 1896, 1907, and 1910). Kusenjalo, imeko ekukhuleni kwayo iyonke ibincumisa kwaye oku kukhula bekungakokunyuka kwamaxabiso jikelele kwaye kuphenjelelwa lutshintsho lobuchwepheshe. Ezi zinto zaziquka oololiwe, itelegraph, umnxeba, izixhobo zasefama, iimoto, izakhiwo eziphakamileyo, umbane neentambo ezinqumla ulwandle.

Ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kuye kwabakho rhoqo kwiibhanki ezingoovimba. Kwiminyaka ye-110 ukususela ekudalweni kwe-Federal Reserve kwi-1913, i-US ihlupheke i-20 ye-recessions okanye i-depressions kunye ne-final panics panics, (1929, 1987, 1994, 1998, kunye ne-2008).

Ebudeni beminyaka engama-77 ngaphandle kwebhanki enguvimba (1836-1913), kwakukho ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kanye kwiminyaka eyi-4.8 ngokomlinganiselo. Ngethuba leminyaka eyi-110 ukususela ekudalweni kwe-Federal Reserve (1913-2023), kukho ukuhla kwezoqoqosho rhoqo emva kweminyaka eyi-5.5. (Isigqibo sokuba isiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022 ibe kukudodobala koqoqosho okusekwe kwiikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo zokukhula okuhlayo, kwaye ukuvela kokudodobala koqoqosho okutsha kulo nyaka kuya kuthoba loo maxesha ukuya kukwehla koqoqosho okunye rhoqo kwiminyaka eyi-5.0).

Ayingomahluko obalulekileyo ngokwezibalo kuthotho lwexesha leminyaka eli-187, ngakumbi xa kujongwa ubunzima bokuDodobala okuKhulu (1929-1940), okwenzeka kwiwotshi yeFed. Isiphumo lunxulumano oluphezulu phakathi kwamaxesha okuhla koqoqosho kunye nangaphandle kwebhanki enguvimba.

IMfihlo yokwenyani emva kweFederal Reserve
Oku kuphakamisa ukuba i-Fed kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yayo yenzala ayinanto yakwenza nokwehla koqoqosho. Ukwehla koqoqosho kuqhutywa ngumjikelo woshishino kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wemali. I-Fed inokwenza ukudodobala koqoqosho kube kubi ngakumbi, kodwa ayikwazi ukunyanga. Uqoqosho luyakwenza oko ngokwalo.

Ebusweni bayo, asiyidingi iFederal Reserve ukuseta inzala. Imarike ibonakala yenza umsebenzi omhle wokumisela amaxabiso ngokwawo. Asiyidingi iFederal Reserve ukunqanda ukudodobala koqoqosho kuba kwenzeka rhoqo ngezizathu ezingenanto yakwenza neFed. Asiyidingi i-Federal Reserve yokuqinisekisa ukukhula ekubeni i-US yayinokukhula okumangalisayo ukusuka kwi-1836 ukuya kwi-1913 ngaphandle kwebhanki ephakathi.

Ukuba i-Federal Reserve ayinayo injongo ebalulekileyo ekubekeni imilinganiselo yenzala, ukuthintela ukwehla, okanye ukukhula kwe-inshurensi, kutheni sinayo i-Federal Reserve nonke?

Impendulo ibuyela kulandelelwano olungaqhelekanga lweziganeko ukusuka kwi-1906 ukuya kwi-1913. Ezi ziganeko zityhila eyona njongo kunye neyona mfihlelo ye-Federal Reserve.

NgoAprili 18, 1906, kwabakho inyikima enkulu nomlilo owatshabalalisa iSixeko saseSan Francisco. Bangaphezu kwama-3,000 abantu ababhubhileyo kwaye ngaphezulu kwe-80% yeso sixeko yatshatyalaliswa. Iinkampani ze-inshorensi ngoko nangoko zaqalisa ukubhangisa ii-asethi ukuze zinyuse imali ukuze zihlawule amabango alindelekileyo.

Oku kuthengisa kubeka uxinzelelo kwiibhanki zaseNew York kunye neNew York Stock Exchange kunye nezinye iimarike zezimali empuma. Indibaniselwano yoxinzelelo lwamandla okuhlawula amatyala olusuka kwinyikima yaseSan Francisco kunye nokuphulukana nokuzithemba ngenxa yokuwa kweKnickerbocker Trust Company eNew York kukhokelele ekuqhubeni iibhanki.

Ebudeni bonxunguphalo ngo-Okthobha we-19, 1907, uPierpont Morgan, eyona bhanki idumileyo eMelika kunye nentloko kaJP Morgan & Co., waqalisa uthotho lweentlanganiso kwisiXeko sakhe saseNew York ebrownstone kwikona ye-36th Street kunye neMadison kunye. iibhanki eziphezulu kunye namagosa karhulumente. Ngobunkokeli bakhe, uPierpont Morgan uphantse wasindisa inkqubo yebhanki yase-US eyedwa.
Ityala elichasene neFed - Ngaba iUnited States idinga ibhanki ephakathi? Uhambo olungaqondakaliyo oluya kwiSiqithi saseJekyll
Ngokukhawuleza emva kweNqaku lika-1907, iibhanki kunye nezopolitiko baqala ukubuza imibuzo ecacileyo. Kwakuza kwenzeka ntoni kuphakuko olulandelayo? UPierpont Morgan akayi kuphila ngonaphakade. (Enyanisweni, uMorgan wafela eRoma ngo-1913). Ngubani oza kuyigcina inkqubo kwixesha elizayo xa iibhanki zisecicini lokuwa?

Iibhanki eziphezulu zagqiba ekubeni kufuneka ibhanki entsha entsha. Ngokufanelekileyo, le bhanki iya kuba yeyodwa kodwa iya kuba nenkxaso kurhulumente wase-US ngendlela yokukwazi ukukhupha imali. Okona kubaluleke kakhulu, le bhanki ingundoqo iya kuba nakho ukusebenza njengombolekisi wendlela yokugqibela kwiibhanki zabucala zase-US.

USenator wase-US uNelson Aldrich (R-RI) waba yintshatsheli yezopolitiko yebhanki entsha. Ngo-1910, u-Aldrich walungiselela uhambo oluyimfihlo ukuya kwiklabhu yabucala ekhethekileyo kwiSiqithi saseJekyll, eGeorgia.

Kubandakanywa kuhambo kwakukho uFrank A. Vanderlip (uMongameli weBhanki yeSizwe yesiXeko emele iimfuno zaseRockefeller), uPaul Warburg (iqabane e-Kuhn, uLoeb omele iimfuno zikaJacob Schiff kunye neemali zaseYurophu), uHenry Davison (iqabane eJP Morgan & Co. emele iimfuno zikaMorgan), u-Abram Andrew (i-economist kunye noNobhala oNcedisayo we-Nondyebo omele uRhulumente wase-US), kunye noBenjamin Strong (uVice-President we-Bankers Trust kunye nentloko yexesha elizayo ye-Federal Reserve Bank yaseNew York).

Kwisithuba seveki, eli qela labhala oko kamva kwaba nguMthetho we-Federal Reserve. Yayisaziwa ngelo xesha njengeSicwangciso se-Aldrich.

Eli qela lalisazi ukuba abantu baseMelika bazithiyile iibhanki ezingoovimba ukusukela ekubhubheni kweBhanki yesiBini yaseMelika ngo-1836. Yiyo loo nto bengazange bayibize indalo yabo njengebhanki ephakathi okanye iBhanki yaseUnited States.

Ukuyibiza ngokuba yi-Federal Reserve yayiyinkohliso kunye ne-anodyne. Kwathatha iminyaka eliqela ukwenza oku kube ngumthetho, kodwa uMthetho ekugqibeleni watyikitywa nguMongameli uWoodrow Wilson kwiintsuku zokuvalwa kwe-1913. I-Fed ibikunye nathi ukususela ngoko.

Ukuza kuthi ga namhlanje iiBhanki zeFederal Reserve ezilishumi elinambini ziphethwe ngasese ziibhanki kwingingqi nganye. Umkhomba-ndlela unikezelwa yiBhodi yeeRhuluneli ze-Federal Reserve System eziqeshwe nguMongameli wase-US kwaye zisekelwe eWashington DC. Inkqubo iyonke ngumxube ogqibeleleyo womdla woluntu nowabucala.

Eyona njongo ye-Federal Reserve ayinanto yakwenza nokunceda uqoqosho, ukubeka inzala, ukuthoba intswela-ngqesho, okanye nayiphi na enye injongo yomgaqo-nkqubo ovayo kwaye ufunde ngayo. Eyona njongo kunye nemfihlo ye-Fed kukukhupha iibhanki usebenzisa imali karhulumente. Oobhanki babeke izandla zabo kumatshini wokushicilela.

Ngoko ke, impendulo emfutshane kukuba i-US ayifuni ibhanki ephakathi. I-US yenza kakuhle ngaphandle komnye iminyaka eyi-77 ukusuka kwi-1836 ukuya kwi-1913. I-Fed ayikwazi ukuvuselela uqoqosho. I-Fed ayibangeli umjikelo weshishini (kodwa inokwenza izinto zibe mbi ngakumbi kwaye zihlala zisenza). I-Fed ayikwazi ukudala imisebenzi.

I-Fed ikhona kuphela ukunika ababhanki ulawulo lwemali kunye nokuzikhupha ngebheyile kanye emva kweminyaka elishumi. Yonke enye into oyivayo ngenkuthazo, ukudalwa kwemisebenzi, inzala, uzinzo kwezezimali, nokunye yingxolo nje. Ukudodobala koqoqosho okuzayo kunokunyanzela abanye ukuba babuze imibuzo enzima kwaye banqumle amaphiko eFed. Musa nje ukubala kuyo.

umbhali: UJim Rickards
umthombo: AltucherConfidential.com