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The Japanese yen (JPY)’s woes continued through the recently concluded week as it weakened further against its major counterparts.
This weakness has been the yen’s theme for most of 2022 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains unwilling to adopt a more hawkish stance in the wake of record inflation, like other central banks. Given the critical role monetary policy plays in driving currencies, the BoJ’s dovish stance is its biggest obstacle to regaining any meaningful momentum.
That said, analysts continue to monitor the Japanese central bank’s action, with its next interest rate announcement coming up on July 21. Regardless, no change is expected in this meeting. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains bent on maintaining an ultra-loose policy despite local inflation rising above the desired 2% target. Estimates place the upcoming Japanese CPI (YoY) in June to tap 2.4%, down from 2.5% in May.
Meanwhile, heightened commodity prices are believed to have played a critical role in worsening local inflation, considering Japan is an energy importer. Also, local inflation is expected to continue rising on the weaker yen, despite declining crude oil prices. That said, the effect of a decline in oil prices on local CPI will be botched by the persistent yen weakness.
Japanese Yen to Rebound if Traders Anticipate Global Economic Turnaround
Consequently, until the BoJ takes a U-turn in monetary policy, the yen will remain at the mercy of external macroeconomic factors outside the nation’s control.
While the outlook for the JPY remains gloomy, the single currency could record some relief if traders begin anticipating a turnaround in aggressive monetary tightening.
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