Mhosva inopokana neFed - United States inoda bhangi repakati here?

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NHANGANYAYA
Ndiwo mumwe wemibvunzo iyo vamwe vanhu vanoshamisika… asi munhu wese anotya kubvunza. (Sezita remuvakidzani wako mushure mekutaura mangwanani-ngwanani kwemwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura.)

Kunyanya kupihwa iyo Federal Reserve inoratidzika kunge iripo kwese, kukosha, uye mukurumbira muhupfumi hweAmerica.

Kuzvidaidza kusahadzika maererano neFed munhau dzemari zvakaenzana nekukumbira jalapenos (kana pineapple!) pa pizza…

Kumhura Mwari.

Asi nhasi, tichaita izvo chaizvo. (The Fed, to be clear. Pizza yedu inoramba yakachena.)

Pazasi, mumwe waanoshanda naye Jim Rickards hacks pamudzi uye anobvunza:

"Iyo Federal Reserve System inoita basa rinobatsira maererano nekukura kwehupfumi, kugadzikana kwemari, kana kugadzira mabasa?"

Mhinduro dzake dzinogona kukushamisa.

Tarisa uone pazasi.

ramba uchiverenga.” - Chris Campbell

Nei Tichitoda Iyo Fed?
Netsananguro isingaperi pamusoro pegwaro reFed rinopa "kukurudzira" kana "kuderedza kushaikwa kwemabasa" kana "kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo," pane zvinoshamisa zvishoma kutaura pamusoro pekuti Fed inogona kuita chimwe chezvinhu izvozvo.

Uye, kana vachikwanisa, kana vachiita basa rakanaka nazvo. Anenge hapana anobvunza mubvunzo wekuti isu tinotoda Federal Reserve System pakutanga, uye kana zvakadaro, nei.
Mhosva inopokana neFed - United States inoda bhangi repakati here? Fed "Stimulus" Haisi Kukurudzira
Humbowo hwesimba hwekuita kweFed hwakajeka. Iyo Fed haigone kukurudzira hupfumi. Chimwe chinoda kungofunga nezvenguva kubva muna 2009 kusvika 2019. Mumakore gumi iwayo, hupfumi hweUnited States hwakanga huchidzoka kubva kuGreat Recession ya2007 - 2009. Izvi zvaisanganisira kuvhunduka kwakanyanya kwemari mukati megore ra2008 nekukundikana kwakatevedzana kweBear Stearns, Fannie. Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers uye AIG.

Isu takaona zvakare kutadza kwepedyo-kwaGoldman Sachs naMorgan Stanley, ayo aive madominos akatevera kudonha kudzamara Fed yavashandura kuita makambani ekuchengetedza mabhanga ndokuvanunura padivi peCiti, Wells Fargo, naJP Morgan.

Avhareji yegore negore kukura kweGDP mune zvese zvakadzoserwa kubvira Hondo Yenyika II yaive zvishoma pamusoro pe4.2%. Avhareji yegore negore kukura kweGDP mune zvese zvakadzoreredzwa kubvira 1980 yaive 3.75%. Avhareji yegore rose GDP kukura mu2009 - 2019 kupora yaive 2.1%.

Uku ndiko kwaive kupora kusina simba munhoroondo yeUS.

Zvakauya panguva iyo Fed yakawedzera bheji rayo kubva pamadhora mazana masere emabhiriyoni kusvika pamadhora mazana mana nemakumi mashanu emadhora kuburikidza nekushandisa kuwanda kwekurerutsa (“QE”) muzvirongwa zvinozivikanwa seQE800, QE4.5, QE1, QE2, uye pachena takarasikirwa nehuwandu hwehuwandu. QEs kubva ipapo.

Iwe hausisiri kunzwa izwi rekuti "QE" zvakare. Imhaka yekuti hazvishande. Mapepa akawanda ekutsvagisa neFed uye vasiri veFed economists vasvika pamhedziso iyoyo. Muchidimbu, Fed mari kudhinda kunoita kwete inobatsira pakukura uye haisi kukurudzira.

Zvimwe chetezvo ndezvekuderedzwa kwemhindu. Unoyeuka here zero interest rate policy (ZIRP)? Fed yakabata mibairo pazero kubva muna Zvita 2008 kusvika Zvita 2015, uyezve haina kumboisimudza zvachose kusvika 2017. Nguva iyoyo yeZIRP inopindirana nekukura kweanemic mukupora kubva muna 2009 - 2019. Zvakare, uhwu humbowo hwakasimba hwekuti ZIRP ine hapana simba rinokurudzira.

Kuderera uye kuwedzera kunoitika; ivo chikamu chebhizinesi kutenderera. Asi, Fed haina chekuita navo. Mafambiro ebhizinesi anofambiswa nezviitiko zvakakura senge mushure mehondo kuunganidza, kutyisa kwekugovera, mutemo wemari, denda, kudzora kukanganisa, kuvimba kwevatengi, kubudirira kwehunyanzvi, uye huwandu hwevanhu.

Iyo Fed Yakanaka Pakukuvadza Economy
Iyo Fed haina chekuita chero nevatyairi ivavo. Muchokwadi, iyo nhoroondo yese yeFed imwe hurongwa hunokanganisa mushure meimwe maererano nekutadza kuverenga zviratidziro zvebhizinesi.

Iyo Fed yakakonzera zvakajeka Kuderera Kukuru kuburikidza nekusimbisa mutemo wemari muna 1927 - 1929 pamberi pekuputsika kwemusika wemasheya muna Gumiguru 1929. Fed yakawedzera kuderera uku nekuchengeta mutemo wakanyanya kusimba.

IUS yakabuda kubva mukuderera kwekutanga kwehupfumi (1929-1932) kweKuderera Kukuru apo FDR yakaderedza dhora rinopesana negoridhe muna 1933. Musika wemari wakawedzera zvakasimba kubva muna 1933 kusvika muna 1936, asi Fed yakakanganisa zvakare nekusimbisa mutemo muna 1937, izvo zvakatungamirira kuderera kwakanyanya muna 1937-1938.

Kwaive kutevedzana uku kwekudonha kuviri nekwechipiri kuitika tisati tapora kubva kune yekutanga kwakashandura nguva yese kuita Kuderera Kukuru (1929-1940). Imwe mhedziso ndeyokuti Fed ine simba shoma rekubatsira hupfumi asi yakanaka kwazvo pakukuvadza.

Sezvineiwo, iyo US yakave nemabhanga matatu epakati uye nguva refu isina bhangi repakati. Kutanga naGeorge Washington muna 1789, US yakanga isina bhanga guru kusvika 1791. Gore iroro, bhanga guru rekutanga reUnited States rainzi Bank of the United States, rinonyanya kuzivikanwa seFirst Bank of the United States rakabhadharwa neUnited States Congress. Yakabhadharwa kwemakore makumi maviri kusvika muna 20.

Bhangi Rokutanga reUnited States harina kuisa mutemo wemari kana mubereko, harina kudzora mamwe mabhanga, harina kuchengetedza mari yakawandisa, uye harina kuita semukweretesi wekupedzisira.
Mhosva inopokana neFed - United States inoda bhangi repakati here? Asi yakatenderwa kukweretesa mari kuhurumende yeUnited States, uye ndiyo yaive pfungwa. Bhanga rekutanga rinogona kufambisa kubudirira kwechirongwa chaAlexander Hamilton chekupa chikwereti chehurumende uye kuita kuti musika wake mutsva webhondi ubviswe nekuratidza kuti US yaive mukwereti ane chikwereti. Panyaya iyi, zvakabudirira.

Gwaro rebhangi rekutanga harina kuvandudzwa neCongress muna 1811. Iyi nguva yechipiri yekushaikwa kwebhangi guru muUS haina kugara kwenguva refu. Hondo ye1812, iyo yakarwiwa kubva muna 1812 kusvika muna 1815, yakaisa dambudziko guru pamari yeUnited States. Chikwereti chenyika yeUS chakakwira kubva pamadhora makumi mana nemashanu muna 45 kusvika pamadhora zana nemakumi maviri nenomwe muna 1812.

Mamiriro ezvinhu emari anonetsa aya akaita kuti vezvematongerwo enyika vakawanda, kusanganisira Mutungamiri James Madison, vatsigire kuumbwa kweBangi Rechipiri reUnited States. Yakarongedzerwa neAct of Congress muna 1816 kwenguva yemakore makumi maviri. Bhangi rechipiri rakatanga kushanda muPhiladelphia muna Ndira 7, 1817. Munhu aitungamira muBhangi rechipiri aive Nicholas Biddle wekuPhiladelphia, aive mutungamiri webhanga kubva 1823 kusvika 1836.

Bhangi rechipiri rakatanga kuoma nekumhanyisa mutemo wemari uri nyore muna 1817 na1818, izvo zvakaita kuti nyika iwedzere uye kuputika kwekupedzisira muKutya kwe1819. Bhangi rakabva raomesa mari, izvo zvakakonzera kudzikira kwakawedzera, kushaikwa kwemabasa. , uye kudonha kwemitengo yezvinhu.

Pakanga pasati pasvika Nicholas Biddle ava Mutungamiri webhangi muna 1823 apo Bhanga Rechipiri rakawana mutemo pane imwe keel. Biddle inonzi yakagadzira mari yakanaka uye mutemo wemari pakati nepakati kubva 1823 kusvika 1833, izvo zvakabatsira US kutsigira hupfumi huri kuwedzera panguva iyoyo.

Andrew Jackson akava Mutungamiriri weUnited States muna 1829 uye akabva atanga kuparadza Second Bank. Gwaro rayo rakanga rakarongwa kupera muna 1836. Recharter yebhanga rakava nyaya huru musarudzo dzemuna 1832 muhondo yainzi Hondo Yemabhangi.

Jackson akahwina patsva. Akarwisa bhangi nekubvisa mari yemubatanidzwa uye kutsausa mari itsva yemubatanidzwa kumabhangi akasarudzika. Jackson akapikisa bhiri recharter uye veto yakatsigirwa. Bhangi Rechipiri rakamira kuvapo nemubatanidzwa charter muna Kukadzi 1836.

Kwemakore 77 kubva 1836 kusvika 1913, US yakanga isina bhangi guru. Hapana panikiro kuti iyi yakanga iri imwe yenguva huru uye refu zvikurusa yebudiriro youpfumi munhau yenyika.

Pakave nekudzikira kwegumi nematanhatu panguva iyi, uye kuvhunduka kwemari kutanhatu (1857, 1873, 1893, 1896, 1907, na1910). Zvakadaro, chimiro chese mukukura chaive chakanaka uye kukura uku kwaiwanzo kusiri-inflation uye kwakakurudzirwa nehunyanzvi hwekuvandudza tekinoroji. Izvi zvaisanganisira njanji, teregirafu, runhare, midziyo yepurazi, motokari, zvivako zvihombe, magetsi, uye tambo dzepagungwa.

Kudzikira kwave kungoitika nemabhanga makuru sekusina. Mumakore zana negumi kubva pakusikwa kweFederal Reserve muna 110, US yakatambura 1913 recessions kana depressions uye kashanu kuvhunduka kwemari, (20, 1929, 1987, 1994, and 1998).

Mukati memakore 77 pasina bhanga guru renyika (1836-1913), pakanga pane kuderera kumwe chete pamakore 4.8 paavhareji. Mukati memakore zana negumi kubvira pakusikwa kweFederal Reserve (110-1913), kwave kune kudzikira kumwe chete pamakore mashanu nehafu. (Sarudzo yekuti hafu yekutanga ya2023 yaive kudzikira kwakavakirwa pamakota maviri akateedzana ekukura, uye kubuda kwekudonha kutsva gore rino kwaizodzikisa kuwanda kwekuderera kumwechete pamakore mashanu ega ega).

Iwo hausi iwo mutsauko wakakosha mune 187-year-time series, kunyanya kupihwa kuomarara kweGreat Depression (1929-1940), iyo yakaitika pawachi yeFed. Mhedzisiro ndeyekuwirirana kwepamusoro pakati pehuwandu hwekudzikira uye pasina bhangi repakati.

Chakavanzika Chaiyo Kuseri kweFederal Reserve
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti Fed nemitemo yayo yemubereko ine zvishoma zvekuita nekuderera. Recessions inotungamirwa nebhizinesi kutenderera uye fiscal policy. Iyo Fed inogona kuita kuti kuderera kuwedzere, asi haigone kuvarapa. Hupfumi hunozviita hwega.

Pamberi pazvo, hatidi Federal Reserve kuti isete mibairo. Musika wacho unoratidzika kuita basa rakanaka rekuisa mazinga ega. Hatidi Federal Reserve kudzivirira kudzikira sezvo dzichiitika kazhinji nekuda kwezvikonzero zvisina chekuita neFed. Hatidi Federal Reserve kuti inshuwarisi yekukura sezvo US yaive nekukura kunoshamisa kubva 1836 kusvika 1913 isina bhangi repakati.

Kana iyo Federal Reserve isina chinangwa chakakosha pakuisa mitero yemitengo, kudzivirira kuderera, kana kukura kweinishuwarenzi, nei isu tine Federal Reserve zvachose?

Mhinduro inodzokera kunhevedzano yechienzi yezvinoitika kubvira muna 1906 kusvikira muna 1913. Izvi zvinoitika zvinoratidzira donzo chairoiro uye chakavanzika chaicho cheFederal Reserve.

Pana April 18, 1906, kwakava nokudengenyeka kwapasi kukuru nomoto zvakaparadza Guta reSan Francisco. Vanopfuura 3,000 vanhu vakafa uye vanopfuura makumi masere muzana eguta rakaparadzwa. Makambani einishuwarenzi akabva atanga kubvisa zvinhu kuti awane mari yekuvhara zvaitarisirwa.

Kutengesa uku kwakaisa kunetseka kumabhanga eNew York neNew York Stock Exchange nemimwe misika yemari yekumabvazuva. Iko kusanganiswa kwekushomeka kwemari kubva mukudengenyeka kweSan Francisco uye kurasikirwa kwekuvimba kubva mukudonha kweKnickerbocker Trust Company muNew York zvakakonzera kumhanyisa kwebhangi.

Pakutyisa kukuru muna Gumiguru 19, 1907, Pierpont Morgan, mubhanga ane mukurumbira muAmerica uye mukuru weJP Morgan & Co., akatanga misangano yakatevedzana paNew York City brownstone pakona ye36th Street neMadison na. vakuru vemabhanga nevakuru vakuru vehurumende. Kuburikidza nehutungamiriri hwake, Pierpont Morgan akapotsa aponesa US banking system.
Mhosva inopokana neFed - United States inoda bhangi repakati here? Rwendo Rwusinganzwisisike kuenda kuJekyll Island
Pakarepo mushure meKutya kwe1907, mabhengi nevezvematongerwo enyika vakatanga kubvunza mibvunzo iri pachena. Chii chaizoitika mukuvhunduka kunotevera? Pierpont Morgan aisazorarama nekusingaperi. (Kutaura zvazviri, Morgan akafira muRoma muna 1913). Ndiani aizochengetedza hurongwa panguva inotevera apo mabhanga akanga ari pamucheto wekuparara?

Vakuru vemabhanga vakasarudza kuti paidiwa bhanga guru renyika. Sezvineiwo, bhanga iri rinenge nderavo pacharo asi richinge richitsigirwa nehurumende yeAmerica nenzira yekukwanisa kuburitsa mari. Kunyanya kukosha, bhanga iri repakati raizokwanisa kuita semukweretesi wekupedzisira kuita kumabhanga eUS akazvimirira.

US Senator Nelson Aldrich (R-RI) akava mutsigiri wezvematongerwo enyika webhanga guru renyika. Muna 1910, Aldrich akaronga rwendo rwepachivande kuenda kukirabhu yega yega paJekyll Island, Georgia.

Vaisanganisira parwendo rwaiva Frank A. Vanderlip (Mutungamiri weNational City Bank anomiririra Rockefeller zvido), Paul Warburg (mubatsiri muKuhn, Loeb anomiririra zvido zveJacob Schiff uye mari yeEurope), Henry Davison (mubatsiri muJP Morgan & Co. anomiririra zvinodiwa naMorgan), Abram Andrew (nyanzvi yezvehupfumi uye Mutevedzeri Munyori weTreasury anomiririra Hurumende yeUS), naBenjamin Strong (Mutevedzeri weMutungamiri weBanki Trust uye mukuru weramangwana weFederal Reserve Bank yeNew York).

Mukati mevhiki, boka iri rakanyora rakazova Federal Reserve Act. Yaizivikanwa panguva iyoyo seAldrich Plan.

Boka iri raiziva kuti vanhu vekuAmerica vaivenga mabhanga makuru kubva pakaparara Second Bank of the United States muna 1836. Ndosaka vasina kudaidza kugadzirwa kwavo kuti bhanga guru renyika kana kuti The Bank of the United States.

Kuitumidza iyo Federal Reserve yaive yekunyengera uye anodyne. Zvakatora makore akawanda kuti izvi zviitwe mutemo, asi Mutemo wacho wakazosainwa naMutungamiri Woodrow Wilson mumazuva okupedzisira a1913. Fed yave inesu kubvira ipapo.

Nanhasi mabhangi gumi nemaviri ematunhu eFederal Reserve ndeavo pachivande nemabhanga munharaunda imwe neimwe. Kutungamira kunopihwa neBoard of Governors yeFederal Reserve System yakagadzwa neMutungamiriri weUS uye inogara muWashington DC. Iyo yese sisitimu isanganiswa yakakwana yezvido zveveruzhinji nezvakavanzika.

Chinangwa chaicho cheFederal Reserve hachina chekuita nekubatsira hupfumi, kuseta mari dzemubereko, kudzikisira hurovha, kana chimwe chezvimwe zvinangwa zvaunonzwa nekuverenga nezvazvo. Chinangwa chaicho uye chakavanzika cheFed ndechekubhadhara mabhanga achishandisa mari yehurumende. Vemabhanga vakaisa maoko avo pamuchina wokudhinda.

Saka, mhinduro pfupi ndeyekuti US haidi bhangi repakati. IUS yakaita zvakanaka pasina imwe kwemakore 77 kubva 1836 kusvika 1913. Fed haigoni kukurudzira hupfumi. Iyo Fed haikonzeri kutenderera kwebhizinesi (asi inogona kuita kuti zvinhu zvinyanye uye zvinowanzoita). Fed haigone kugadzira mabasa.

Iyo Fed inongovepo kupa mabhengi kutonga kwemari uye kuzvibhadharira ivo pachavo kamwechete pamakore gumi. Zvimwe zvese zvaunonzwa nezve kukurudzira, kugadzira mabasa, mari dzemubereko, kugadzikana kwemari, nezvimwewo ruzha chete. Kudzikira kwakanyanya kuri kuuya kungazomanikidza vamwe kubvunza mibvunzo yakaoma uye kutema mapapiro eFed. Usangovimba nazvo.

Author: Jim Rickards
Source: AltucherConfidential.com