CHF Pairs Volatility - Dalitso ndi Temberero

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Nkhaniyi idalembedwa koyamba mu 2015 ndipo pambuyo pake idasindikizidwa m'bukuli “Tsegulani Kuthekera Kwanu Ndi Zoona Zamalonda.” Zapangidwa pano kuti owerenga amvetsetse zomwe zidachitika kwa awiriawiri a CHF chaka chimenecho komanso chifukwa chake sizinachitikepo. Mumvetsetsanso chifukwa chake kuwongolera zoopsa ndikofunikira.

“… Munthu sangadziwe zisadafike ngati bizinesi ikhala yogulitsa tsiku limodzi, kugulitsa masiku ochepa kapena milungu ingapo kapena kugulitsa masabata mpaka miyezi. Malonda aliwonse amayamba kuchokera ku kamwana kakang'ono kwambiri pamlingo wocheperako. ” - Dirk Vandycke

Momwe Zimayambira
Pa Seputembara 2011, Swiss National Bank (SNB) idapanga lingaliro loyika msomali pamlingo wa 1.2000 pa EURCHF. Iwo anachita izi chifukwa amafuna kukhazikika m'makampani ogulitsa kunja ndi chuma chonse. Zinatanthawuza kuti EUR sinaloledwe kufanana ndi CHF, mosiyana ndi ma CHF ena awiri. Mulingo wothandizirayo wakale unkatchedwa malo abwino kwambiri ndipo SNB ipitilizabe kugula ma yuro ambiri kuti zisawonongeke kutsutsana ndi ma Swiss Franc.

Mu 2011, EURCHF inali pansi pa mulingo wa 1.2000. M'malo mwake, EURCHF idatsika ndi ma pips opitilira 2,800 chaka chimenecho, mpaka kufika kutsika kwa 1.0069. Chikhomacho chitatha, mtanda udalumphira kumtunda pamwamba pa mulingo wa 1.2000.

Mu 2012, mtengo udayamba kufooka kwambiri, koma sinathe kutseka pansi pamlingo wa 1.2000. Nthawi iliyonse mtengo ukafika pamunsi pamulingo, umadumphiranso pamwamba pamlingo.

Mu 2013, mtengowo udakwanitsa kugulitsa kwambiri, chifukwa cha mphamvu ya yuro. Mtengo unakwanitsa kupita kumtunda ndi ma pips opitilira 500, kufika pamwamba pa 1.2648
.
Mu 2014, mtengo udatsikira pansi pang'onopang'ono komanso mosasunthika mpaka udafika pansi pa 1.2000 kumapeto kwa chaka chimenecho. Ambiri adawona uwu ngati mwayi wopanda mwayi wogula mtanda wa EURCHF.

EURCHF nthawi imeneyo inkawoneka ngati msika 'wopanda chilungamo' momwe aliyense amatha kupanga ndalama. Unali ngati msika momwe aliyense amatha kupeza phindu lalikulu ndipo ena okonda chiopsezo atha kulolera kuyika gawo lalikulu lazambiri zawo. Ambiri amaganiza kuti ndichopusa kuchepa pa EURCHF, popeza panali 'chitsimikizo' kuti mtanda pamapeto pake uzikwera, monganso chiwongola dzanja m'maiko ena otukuka, omwe ena amaganiza kuti sangapiteko pokhapokha kukwera. Ena sanadziwe ngakhale kuti chiwongola dzanja chingakhale cholakwika. Chokhacho chomwe chingapangitse kuti seweroli likhale lopanda pake ndi pomwe msomali adachotsedwa - zomwe SNB sinkafuna kuchita panthawiyo.

15 Januware 2015 - Zivomezi Zabwino Kwambiri Msika
Komabe, zinali kukwera mtengo kwambiri kuti SNB iteteze msomali. Banki yayikulu imafunikira matumba akuya kwambiri kuti ichitebe izi kwanthawi yayitali. Nkhokwe za SNB zidakulirakulira mpaka kuwonekera kwambiri ndipo malingaliro pa yuro anali kukulira kulira. Zinali zowonekeratu kuti kugwiritsitsa pansi sikunamveka. Pa 15 Januware 2015, SNB mwadzidzidzi idachotsa chikhomo ndikuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja kupitilira gawo loipa. Dziko lamalonda lidadabwitsidwa. Amalonda ena amapeza ndalama zambiri ndikuwononga. Ndi okhawo omwe sanachite malonda awiriawiri a CHF omwe sanakhudzidwe kwambiri.

USDCHF yatsika ndi ma 2,800 pips.
EURCHF idatsika ndi ma pips 3,300
GBPCHF idatsika ndi ma pips a 4,300
CADCHF idatsika ndi ma pips 1,500
CHFJPY adalimbikitsidwa ndi ma pips 6,900
NZDCHF idatsika ndi ma pips 1,500
AUDCHF idatsika ndi ma pips 1,500

Kusuntha kumeneku sikunachitikepo. Kandulo tsiku lililonse inali yayitali ngati mkono wamunthu! Ngakhale zili zachilendo kuti awiri / mtanda awone kuyenda kwa zikwi za ma pips m'masiku angapo, milungu kapena miyezi, si zachilendo kuti awiri / mtanda azisuntha kwambiri tsiku limodzi. Msikawo uli ngati gulu labala; ngati ipita mbali imodzi, muyenera kuyembekezera kuti ibwerera mbali inayo. Chifukwa chake panali kusintha kwakukulu patsikuli lokha.

SNB kapena misika sangaimbe mlandu pa izi: banki yayikulu ili ndi ufulu wochita zomwe ikufuna ndi ndalama zawo. Kuphatikiza apo, misika yomwe imabweretsa zotayika kwa ena ndizofanana zomwe zidabweretsa phindu kwa ena. Oyang'anira ziwopsezo zabwino amatayika pang'ono atagwidwa pamsika wolakwika ndipo amapindula kwambiri akagwidwa kumanja.

Zomwe Opeza Njuga Amaphunzira
Ndikudziwa wina yemwe adapeza phindu la ma euro 7,000,000 m'maola awiri. Wina yemwe adalipira akaunti yake ndi $ 100 ndipo anali kugwiritsa ntchito maere 0.1 adabweza 2,600% tsiku limodzi. Wina yemwe adalipira akaunti yake ndi $ 1,000 ndikugulitsa ma 0.5 adabwera kunyumba kuchokera kuntchito ndikuwona ndalama zowerengeka zoposa $ 10,000. Amalonda ambiri tsopano akuyenera kulipira makasitomala awo phindu lalikulu.

Ngati mwapeza phindu lalikulu pano, monga mazana angapo a phindu, zimangokhala mwayi; ndipo palibe wamalonda yemwe angakhale ndi moyo wopambana chifukwa cha mwayi. Amalonda abwino ndi omwe amapulumuka msika, osati okhawo omwe amapeza ndalama zambiri m'misika.

Kumbali inayi, amalonda ambiri amalandila mayitanidwe am'mbali kapena amataya magawo awo ambiri. Ingoganizirani winawake akugwiritsa ntchito maere 60.0 pa akaunti ya mapaundi 1,000,000. Mosakayikira, ndalamazo zinatayika nthawi yomweyo. Otsatsa ena adakhudzidwa kwambiri (ngakhale ambiri sanakhudzidwe). Ndimamvera chisoni kwambiri omwe adakhudzidwa kwambiri.

Zinandikhudzanso, chifukwa ndinali ndi maudindo awiri ataliatali pa EURCHF ndi NZDCHF, koma ndidangotaya -1.2% yathunthu. Kutayika kwanga kuyenera kuti kunali 1% yokha pamalonda awiriwa, koma mukudziwa, kuterera. Kuyimilira kudzakhala inshuwaransi yathu ya moyo kwamuyaya. Ngati mutsatira upangiri wa omwe sagwiritsa ntchito poyimilira, zotayika zanu sizingakhale udindo wawo.

Kodi mukukumbukira 6 Meyi 2010 Flash Crash? Kodi mukukumbukira chivomerezi ku Japan, chomwe chidachitika pa 11 Marichi 2011, komanso ngozi yanyukiliya yomwe idatsatira? Kodi mukudziwa zotsatirapo zake pamisika? Kodi mukudziwa momwe amalonda adakhudzidwira komanso zomwe zidachitika kutsatira kutsika kwamitengo? Izi ziyenera kukhala ngati maphunziro motsutsana ndi Chinyengo cha Wotchova Gambler. Tsoka ilo, anthu ambiri amawoneka kuti sanaphunzire phunziro lawo.

Kudzidalira mopambanitsa sichinthu chabwino.

Monga mukuwonera, ngakhale mutagulitsa ndi kusanthula kwakatundu kapena ukadaulo kapena kuphatikiza zonse ziwiri, simudziwa zomwe msika udzachite kenako ndipo simungakhale olondola nthawi zonse. Ngakhale iwo omwe adawoneratu kuti msomali achotsedwa sanadziwe kuti zidzachitike liti. Zinthu zikalakwika, kudziwongolera pangozi ndi komwe kungakuthandizeni, osati kudziwa kwanu zaukadaulo kapena zofunikira. Ndibwino kungoyang'ana pazomwe tingathe kuwongolera - opambana ndi otayika.

Silo lingaliro labwino kwambiri kuti mupereke chipambano chamuyaya chifukwa chadyera kwakanthawi. Iwo omwe amawoneka opusa pochita zinthu zoyenera pamapeto pake adzawonetsedwa kuti ndi anzeru.

Ndikalangiza chiwopsezo cha 0.5% pamalonda, anthu ambiri amanyalanyaza ine. M'malo mwake, simudzawona wina akugwiritsa ntchito ma 0.1 okha pa akaunti ya $ 20,000 kapena ma 0.5 pa $ 100,000. Amaganiza kuti ndizosamveka komanso kosasamala, ndikutsutsa chenjezo langa loti chitetezo cha zofalitsa zathu ndizofunikira kwambiri phindu lomwe tikufuna kupanga. Zotayika zazikulu ndizovuta kwambiri kuti zibwezeretsedwe motero, ziyenera kupewedwa zivute zitani. Kukhazikika kotsimikizika kwambiri padziko lapansi sikungandipangitse kukhala pachiwopsezo chopitilira 0.5% pamalonda anga amtsogolo.

Ndakhala wokonda kuchita bwino kwamuyaya, koma sizingatheke ndi iwo omwe amagwiritsa ntchito kukula kwakukulu. Kuchulukitsa si vuto, koma kugwiritsa ntchito mopanda nzeru ndiye vuto. Kuchulukitsa ndichabwino kwa oyang'anira pachiwopsezo omwe amadziwa kuwongolera zotayika ndi phindu lawo.
Malangizo Otsatira pa CHF Pairs
SNB ikhoza kuyesetsabe kuti CHF ikhale yopanda tanthauzo ndipo atha kufufuza njira zina zochitira izi. Mipata yanthawi yayitali idayamba mitengo itachepa kufika pamiyeso yoseketsa. Kusuntha kwamtunduwu tsiku limodzi ndi kochititsa chidwi kwambiri chifukwa chake, mitengo yapawiri ya CHF 'iyenera kudzakonzedwa m'kupita kwanthawi ndipo zinthu zibwerera mwakale m'milungu ingapo. Mwachitsanzo, USDCHF itagwa ngati mwala, EURUSD imayenera kukwera m'mwamba, chifukwa yolumikizidwa molakwika. Otsatirawa sanakhudzidwe ndipo onse awiriwa sangakhalebe olimba kwa nthawi yayitali (ndipo dola ndiyolimba payokha).

USDCHF idasunthira kumtunda ndi ma pips opitilira 1,900 chaka chonse 2015 (kuyambira Januware 2015 wotsika ndi 0.8246). Mu Chithunzi Chachikulu, USDCHF yakhala ikuphatikizidwa mpaka pano.

Msika wamtunduwu umapereka mwayi wapadera wokhala ndi maudindo osiyanasiyana. Kumapeto kwa 15 Januware 2015, ndidapita nthawi yayitali ku EURCHF, USDCHF, AUDCHF, NZDCHF, GBPCHF ndi CADCHF (kugulitsa CHFJPY yayifupi), ndikugwiritsa ntchito kukula kwa ma 0.1 pa $ 20,000 iliyonse. Ndimalunjika ma pips 500 pamalonda aliwonse. Ndidakhala m'malo awa kwa milungu ingapo kapena miyezi - mpaka zolinga zonse zitakwaniritsidwa. Sindinagwiritse ntchito zopumira kapena kutsata posachedwa nthawi ino chifukwa ndimafuna kupanga njira yokwanira yosasinthasintha pamisika, pomwe ndimakonda kuyenda kwaulere.

Ma bearish ndi mitanda sangakhalebe okhazikika kwamuyaya. Msika wa CHF unkayembekezeka kudzikonza pang'onopang'ono mpaka zinthu zitayamba kukhala bwino. Pomwe ena amakhala akusangalala ndi mphepo yamkuntho ndipo ena adanyambita bala lawo, sitiyenera kuyiwala zomwe tidaphunzira kuchokera ku kusinthasintha kwa CHF, zomwe zinali dalitso ndi temberero.

Chidutswachi chatha ndi mawu omwe ali pansipa:

“Ngati ungogulitsa pamtengo womwe ulibe tanthauzo, sipangakhale zokhumudwitsa zambiri. Komabe, ngati mukuika pachiwopsezo chachikulu mumalakwitsa zina ndi zina. ” - Dave Landry

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