CHF Pairs Volatility - kahi hoʻomaikaʻi a me kahi hōʻino

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10 mau minuke hoʻonohonoho me nā pōmaikaʻi nui. Hāʻawi ʻia ka manual me ke kūʻai.

79% Laki holomua. ʻO kā mākou hopena e hoʻohauʻoli iā ʻoe.

A hiki i 70 kālepa i kēlā me kēia mahina. Loaʻa ma mua o 5 mau pai.

Hoʻomaka nā kau inoa o kēlā me kēia mahina ma ka £58.

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Ua kākau mua ʻia kēia ʻatikala ma 2015 a ua paʻi ʻia ma hope i loko o ka puke "Wehe i kāu hiki me nā ʻoiaʻiʻo o ke kālepa ʻana." Hana hou ʻia ia ma aneʻi no ka poʻe heluhelu e hoʻomaopopo i ka mea i hana ʻia i nā pālua CHF i kēlā makahiki a me ke kumu o ka hana mua ʻole ʻia. E hoʻomaopopo pū ʻoe i ke kumu o ka mālama nui ʻana i ka pilikia.

"… ʻAʻole hiki i kekahi ke ʻike ma mua inā he kālepa e kūʻai ʻia ana i kahi lā, kahi kālepa pōkole o nā lā a i ʻole nā ​​pule a i ʻole kahi kalepa lōʻihi o nā pule a hiki i nā mahina. Hoʻolālā kēlā me kēia kālepa mai ke kahua embryonic o ka liʻiliʻi loa ma ka pālākiō manawa liʻiliʻi. " - Dirk Vandycke

Pehea i hoʻomaka ai
Ma Kepakemapa 2011, ua hoʻoholo ka Swiss National Bank (SNB) e kau i kahi kui ma ka pae 1.2000 ma EURCHF. Ua hana lākou pēlā no ka mea makemake lākou e hoʻokūpaʻa i ka ʻoihana hoʻolilo a me ka hoʻokele waiwai holoʻokoʻa. ʻO ka manaʻo ʻaʻole ʻae ʻia ʻo EUR e kiʻi i ka like me CHF, ʻokoʻa i nā hui CHF ʻē aʻe. Ua kapa ʻia kēlā pae kākoʻo ma mua he papahele nui a e hoʻomau ka SNB i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā nui he nui o nā euro e kāpae iā ia mai ka hoʻoliʻiliʻi e kūʻē iā Swiss Francs.

Ma 2011, EURCHF ma lalo o ka pae 1.2000. I ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ua hāʻule ʻo EURCHF e nā mea ʻoi aku ma mua o 2,800 pips i kēlā makahiki, a hōʻea i kahi haʻahaʻa o 1.0069. Ma hope o ka hana ʻia ʻana o ke kui, lele i luna ke keʻa ma luna o ka pae 1.2000.

I ka 2012, ua nāwaliwali loa ke kumukūʻai, akā ʻaʻole hiki ke pani ma lalo o ka pae ma 1.2000. I kēlā me kēia manawa ke kumu kūʻai i iho i lalo o ka pae, e lele hou ia ma luna o ka pae.

I ka 2013, ua hiki ke kumukūʻai ke kūʻai aku i luna me ka ʻike nui, no ka ikaika o ka euro. Hiki i ke kumukūʻai ke neʻe i luna e 500 pips, a piʻi i kahi kiʻekiʻe o 1.2648
.
I ka 2014, ua emi ke kumukūʻai i lalo i kahi ʻano lohi a paʻa a hiki i ka papahele ma 1.2000 hou i ka hopena o kēlā makahiki. He nui ka poʻe i ʻike i kēia he manawa kūpono ʻole e kūʻai i ke keʻa ʻo EURCHF.

Ua like ʻo EURCHF me he 'mākeke kūpono ʻole nei i loaʻa i nā mea āpau ke loaʻa kālā. Ua like ia me kahi mākeke e hiki ai i kēlā me kēia mea ke hoʻohana i nā lanakila nui a makemake paha kekahi mau mea aloha i ka makaʻu e hoʻoweliweli i kahi ʻāpana nui o kā lākou waihona. Manaʻo ka hapa nui he lapuwale e hele pōkole ma EURCHF, ʻoiai aia kahi 'hōʻoia' e piʻi aʻe ke keʻa, e like me nā uku paneʻe ma kekahi mau ʻāina kūkulu, kahi i manaʻo ai kekahi ʻaʻole wahi e hele ai koe wale aʻe. ʻAʻole maopopo kekahi i hiki ke hoʻolilo ʻia i nā uku paneʻe maikaʻi ʻole. ʻO ka mea wale nō e hiki ke hoʻolilo i ke kiʻiona i mea ʻole ke lawe ʻia ka peg - a ka SNB makemake ʻole e hana ia manawa.

15 Ianuali 2015 - Nā ʻōlaʻi nani i nā mākeke
Eia nō naʻe, ke hoʻonui nei i ka pipiʻi no ka SNB e pale aku i ke kuʻi. Pono i kahi panakō kikowaena i mau ʻeke hohonu loa e hoʻomau i ka hana ʻana no ka manawa lōʻihi. Ua hoʻonui ʻia nā mālama mālama SNB i kahi kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe a ua lilo ka ʻike i ka euro i mea e pōʻeleʻele loa ana. Ua akāka i ka paʻa ʻana i kēlā papahele he kūpono ʻole. Ma ka 15 Ianuali 2015, ua wehe koke ka SNB i ke kuʻi a ua hoʻoliʻiliʻi hou i ka uku paneʻe i nā ʻāina maikaʻi ʻole. Ua kāhāhā ka honua kālepa. Ua loaʻa i kekahi mau kālepa kālepa waiwai nui a me nā poho. ʻO ka poʻe i kālepa ʻole i nā pālua CHF ʻaʻole i loli nui ʻia.

Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻo USDCHF e 2,800 pips.
Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻo EURCHF e 3,300 pips
Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻo GBPCHF e 4,300 pips
Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻo CADCHF e 1,500 pips
Hōʻuluʻulu ʻo CHFJPY e 6,900 pips
Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻo NZDCHF e 1,500 pips
Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻo AUDCHF e 1,500 pips

ʻAʻohe o kēia mau neʻe ʻana ma mua. ʻO ka ihoiho o kēlā me kēia lā e like ka lōʻihi me ka lima o ke kanaka! ʻOiai he mea maʻamau ia no kahi pālua / keʻa e ʻike i kahi neʻe ʻana o kahi mau kaukani pips i loko o kekahi mau lā, he mau pule a he mau mahina paha, ʻaʻole ia he maʻamau no ka neʻe ʻana o ka lua / kea i hoʻokahi lā. Ua like ka mākeke me kahi pēpē; inā neʻe loa ia i hoʻokahi ala, pono ʻoe e hoʻi i hope i kahi ala ʻē aʻe. Pēlā nō he mau hoʻoponopono koʻikoʻi i kēlā lā wale nō.

ʻAʻole hiki ke hoʻopiʻi ʻia ka SNB a me nā mākeke no kēia: he kuleana ko ka panakō kikowaena e hana i kā lākou makemake me kā lākou kālā. Eia hou, ʻo nā mākeke nā kūlana i lawe mai i nā pohō i kekahi mau ʻano like i lawe i nā waiwai no nā poʻe ʻē aʻe. Hoʻopilikia nā luna hoʻokele maikaʻi i ka pohō hiki ʻole ke hopu ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao hewa o ka mākeke a loaʻa iā lākou nā uku mahalo ʻia ke loaʻa lākou ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻākau.

Nā haʻawina no ka poʻe piliwaiwai
ʻIke wau i kekahi i loaʻa kālā iā 7,000,000 euro i loko o ʻelua mau hola. ʻO kekahi mea i hoʻolako kālā i kāna moʻokāki me $ 100 a ke hoʻohana nei i ka 0.1 nui i hana 2,600% hoʻihoʻi i ka lā hoʻokahi. ʻO kekahi mea i hoʻolako kālā i kāna moʻokāki me $ 1,000 a kūʻai aku me 0.5 mau mea i hoʻi mai i ka home mai ka hana a ʻike i kahi koena waihona ma mua o $ 10,000. Pono nā brokers i kēia manawa e uku i kā lākou mea kūʻai aku i ka nui o nā loaʻa kālā.

Inā loaʻa iā ʻoe nā loaʻa nui ma aneʻi, e like me nā haneli haneli o nā loaʻa kālā, he laki wale nō ia; a ʻaʻohe mea kālepa e hiki ke ʻike i ka kūleʻa mau loa ma muli o ka laki laki. ʻO nā mea kālepa maikaʻi ka poʻe i ola i nā kūlana mākeke maikaʻi, ʻaʻole wale ka poʻe e loaʻa kālā nui mai nā mākeke.

Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ua loaʻa i nā mea kālepa he nui i kāhea i ka palena palena a i ʻole ka hapa nui o kā lākou kōpili. E noʻonoʻo i kahi mea e hoʻohana ana i ka 60.0 ma kahi moʻokāki 1,000,000. Pono ʻole e ʻōlelo, ua nalowale koke ke kālā. Ua loli maikaʻi ʻia kekahi mau brokers (ʻoiai ʻaʻole pili ʻia ka hapa nui). Aloha nui wau me ka poʻe i hoʻopilikia ʻia.

Ua pili pū kekahi wau, no ka mea, ʻelua mau kūlana lōʻihi aʻu e paʻa nei ma EURCHF a me NZDCHF, akā ʻeha wale kaʻu -1.2% mau poho i ka huina. ʻO kaʻu nalo he 1% wale nō ia ma nā kālepa ʻelua, akā maopopo iā ʻoe, heʻe. E kū mau loa ka lilo i kā mākou ʻinikua pilikino. Inā ʻoe e hāhai i ka ʻōlelo aʻo a ka poʻe hoʻohana ʻole i nā kū, ʻaʻole hiki i kāu mau lilo ke lilo i kuleana no lākou.

Hoʻomaopopo ʻoe i ka 6 Mei 2010 Flash Crash? Hoʻomaopopo ʻoe i ke ōlaʻi i Iapana, i kū mai ma 11 Malaki 2011, a me ka pōʻino nukelea i ukali ʻia? ʻIke paha ʻoe i nā hopena i loaʻa iā lākou ma nā mākeke? ʻIke paha ʻoe i ka hopena o ka poʻe kalepa a he aha ka mea i hana ma hope o ka hāʻule nui ʻana o nā kumukūʻai? Pono kēia mau mea e lilo i mau haʻawina e kūʻē i ka Gambler's Fallacy. Minamina, nui ka poʻe i ʻike ʻole i kā lākou haʻawina.

ʻO ka hilinaʻi nui ʻaʻole ia he mea maikaʻi.

E like me kāu e ʻike ai, inā kālepa ʻoe me ka hoʻokalakupua kumuhana a ʻenehana a hoʻopili paha i nā mea ʻelua, ʻaʻole ʻoe i ʻike i ka hana a ka mākeke a ʻaʻole hiki iā ʻoe ke pololei i nā manawa āpau. ʻO ka poʻe i ʻike mua i ka hemo ʻana o ka peg, ʻaʻole lākou i ʻike i ka manawa hea ia. Ke hele a hewa nā mea, kōkua wale ka kaohi makaʻu iā ʻoe, ʻaʻole i kou ʻike i ka ʻenehana a i ʻole nā ​​mea nui. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi e nānā i ka mea hiki iā mākou ke kaohi - kā mākou mau mea lanakila a me nā eo.

ʻAʻole ia ʻo ka manaʻo maikaʻi loa e mōhai i ka kūleʻa mau loa no ka pōkole manawa pōkole. ʻO ka poʻe e ʻike naʻaupō ana i ka hana ʻana i nā mea kūpono e hōʻoia ʻia i ke akahele.

Ke paipai wau i ka makaʻu o 0.5% no kēlā me kēia kālepa, nānā ka hapa nui o nā kānaka iaʻu. I ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole paʻakikī ʻoe e ʻike i kekahi e hoʻohana wale ana i ka 0.1 nui ma kahi moʻokāki $ 20,000 a i ʻole 0.5 mau hailona ma kahi moʻokāki $ 100,000. Manaʻo lākou he kūpono ʻole ia a me ka conservative, ke pāʻani nei i kaʻu ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo no ka mea ʻoi aku ka nui o ka palekana o kā mākou kōpena e loaʻa ai nā waiwai a mākou e makemake ai. He paʻakikī loa nā pohō nui e ola hou a no laila, pono lākou e hōʻalo ʻia i nā koina āpau. ʻAʻole hiki i ka hoʻonohonoho paʻa loa i ka honua ke hoʻokau iaʻu i ka makaʻu ma mua o 0.5% ma kekahi o kaʻu kālepa e hiki mai ana.

Kākoʻo wau i ka kūleʻa mau, akā ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokō ʻia e ka poʻe e hoʻohana ana i nā nui kūlana. ʻAʻole pilikia ʻo Leverage, akā ʻo ka hoʻohana pono ʻole ʻana o ka leverage ka pilikia. ʻO Leverage kahi boon i nā luna hoʻomalu e ʻike pehea e kaohi ai i kā lākou poho a me nā loaʻa kālā.
Nā ʻaoʻao aʻe e pili ana i nā hui CHF
E hoʻāʻo paha ka SNB e mālama i ka CHF ma lalo o ka waiwai a hiki iā lākou ke ʻimi i kekahi ala ʻē aʻe e hana pēlā. Ua kū aʻe nā manawa kūpono i ka wā i hōʻole ai nā kumukūʻai i nā pae henehene. Kupaianaha loa kēia ʻano neʻe ʻana i ka lā hoʻokahi a no laila, hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā kumukūʻai o nā kāne CHF o kēia manawa e hoʻoponopono i ka holo lōʻihi a e hoʻi nā mea i maʻamau i loko o nā pule. ʻO kahi laʻana, i ka wā i hina iho ai ʻo USDCHF e like me ka pōhaku, pono e lele i luna ka EURUSD, no ka mea ua hoʻopili maikaʻi ʻole ʻia lākou i kahi kūlana maʻamau. ʻAʻole pili ka hope a ʻaʻole hiki i nā pālua ke noho bearish no kahi manawa lōʻihi (a ikaika ka dālā i kāna pono ponoʻī.

Ua neʻe ʻo USDCHF i luna ma o 1,900 pips no ke koena o ka makahiki 2015 (mai ka haʻahaʻa Ianuali 2015 o 0.8246). I kahi kiʻi nui, ua hoʻohui ʻo USDCHF i kahi nui a laila mai ia manawa.

Hāʻawi kēia ʻano mākeke i nā manawa kū hoʻokahi e lawe i nā kūlana contrarian. Ma ka hopena o 15 Ianuali 2015, ua hele lōʻihi wau ma EURCHF, USDCHF, AUDCHF, NZDCHF, GBPCHF a me CADCHF (ke kūʻai aku nei i ka CHFJPY pōkole), me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka nui o ke kūlana he 0.1 no kēlā me kēia $ 20,000. Hoʻolālā wau i 500 pips ma kēlā me kēia kālepa. Ua paʻa wau i kēia mau kūlana lōʻihi no mau pule a mau mahina paha - a hiki i ka hoʻokō ʻana i nā pahuhopu āpau. ʻAʻole wau i hoʻohana i ka breakeven a i ʻole ke kū ʻana i kēia manawa no ka mea makemake wau e hana i kahi kaʻawale no ka volatility kiʻekiʻe ma nā mākeke, ʻoiai wau e hauʻoli nei i ka holo manuahi.

ʻAʻole hiki i ka paʻa bearish a me nā keʻa ke noho bearish a mau loa. Kuhi ʻia nā mākeke CHF e hoʻoponopono pololei iā lākou iho a hiki i ka lilo ʻana o nā mea maʻamau. E like me ka mea i loko o ka euphoria o ka wailele a ua palu kekahi i ko lākou ʻeha, ʻaʻole pono mākou e hoʻopoina i nā haʻawina a mākou i aʻo ai mai ka volatility CHF, he pōmaikaʻi a me ka hōʻino.

Pau kēia ʻāpana me ka ʻōlelo ma lalo:

“Inā ʻoe e kālepa i kahi nui kokoke ʻole i ka waiwai, e loaʻa nā manaʻo liʻiliʻi e pili ana. Eia nō naʻe, inā e lawe ʻoe i kahi makaʻu nui e hana hewa ʻoe i ka naʻau. " - Dave Landry