Shari'ar da ke kan Fed - Shin Amurka tana buƙatar babban banki?

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Sakamakon

GABATARWA
Yana ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan tambayoyin wasu mutane suna mamaki… amma kowa yana jin tsoron tambaya. (Kamar sunan maƙwabcin ku bayan an yi safiya na tsawon watanni shida da suka gabata).

Musamman idan aka yi la'akarin kasancewar Tarayyar Tarayya ta kasance a ko'ina, mahimmanci, da martaba a cikin tattalin arzikin Amurka.

Don kiran shi cikin tambaya dacewar Fed a cikin kafofin watsa labarai na kuɗi daidai yake da tambayar jalapenos (ko abarba!) akan pizza…

Zagi.

Amma a yau, za mu yi daidai da haka. (Fed, a bayyane. Pizza mu ya kasance mai tsabta.)

A ƙasa, abokin aiki Jim Rickards ya yi fashi a tushen ya tambaya:

"Shin tsarin ajiyar Tarayyar Tarayya yana yin aiki mai amfani dangane da ci gaban tattalin arziki, kwanciyar hankali na kudi, ko samar da ayyukan yi?"

Amsoshinsa na iya ba ku mamaki.

Duba shi ƙasa.

Ci gaba da karatu.” - Chris Campbell ne adam wata

Me yasa Muke Bukatar Fed?
Tare da sharhi mara iyaka akan manufofin Fed da ke ba da “ƙarfafawa” ko “rage rashin aikin yi” ko “yaƙar hauhawar farashin kaya,” akwai abin mamaki kadan sharhi kan ko Fed na iya zahiri yin kowane ɗayan waɗannan abubuwan.

Kuma, idan za su iya, ko sun yi aiki mai kyau da shi. Kusan babu wanda ya yi tambaya game da ko muna ma buƙatar Tsarin Reserve na Tarayya a farkon wuri, kuma idan haka ne, me yasa.
Shari'ar da ke kan Fed - Shin Amurka tana buƙatar babban banki? Fed "Ƙara Ƙarfafawa" Ba Mai Ƙarfafawa ba ne
Tabbataccen shaida na ingancin Fed a bayyane yake. Fed ba zai iya tada tattalin arziki ba. Ɗaya daga cikin buƙatu kawai la'akari da lokacin daga 2009 zuwa 2019. A cikin waɗannan shekaru goma, tattalin arzikin Amurka yana murmurewa daga Babban koma bayan tattalin arziki na 2007 - 2009. Wannan ya haɗa da firgita mai tsanani na kudi a cikin 2008 tare da gazawar Bear Stearns, Fannie. Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers da AIG.

Har ila yau, mun fuskanci gazawar Goldman Sachs da Morgan Stanley, wadanda su ne na gaba domino ya fadi har sai Fed ya mayar da su kamfanoni masu rike da banki kuma ya cece su tare da Citi, Wells Fargo, da JP Morgan.

Matsakaicin ci gaban GDP na shekara-shekara a duk farfadowar da aka samu tun yakin duniya na biyu ya dan wuce kashi 4.2 cikin dari. Matsakaicin ci gaban GDP na shekara-shekara a duk farfadowar da aka samu tun 1980 ya kasance 3.75%. Matsakaicin ci gaban GDP na shekara a cikin farfadowar 2009-2019 ya kasance 2.1%.

Wannan shi ne mafi raunin murmurewa a tarihin Amurka.

Ya zo ne a lokacin da Fed ya faɗaɗa ma'auni daga dala biliyan 800 zuwa dala tiriliyan 4.5 ta hanyar yin amfani da sauƙaƙan ƙididdiga ("QE") a cikin shirye-shiryen da aka sani da QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, kuma a gaskiya mun rasa ƙididdiga. QEs tun lokacin.

Ba kasafai kuke jin kalmar “QE” ba kuma. Domin ba ya aiki. Takardun bincike da yawa na Fed da masana tattalin arzikin da ba na Fed ba sun kai ga ƙarshe. A takaice, Fed kudi bugu yayi ba taimaka wajen girma kuma ba stimulative.

Haka lamarin yake ga rage kudin ruwa. Ka tuna manufar ƙimar riba sifili (ZIRP)? Fed ya rike ribar riba a sifili daga Disamba 2008 zuwa Disamba 2015, sannan da kyar ya tashe su gaba daya har zuwa 2017. Wannan lokacin na ZIRP ya mamaye ci gaban anemia a farfadowa daga 2009 - 2019. Bugu da ƙari, wannan babbar shaida ce cewa ZIRP yana da babu stimulative iko.

koma bayan tattalin arziki da fadada suna faruwa; suna daga cikin tsarin kasuwancin. Amma, Fed ba shi da alaƙa da su. Ana tafiyar da zagayowar kasuwanci ta hanyar abubuwan da suka faru na macro kamar tattarawar bayan yaƙi, girgizar ƙasa, manufofin kasafin kuɗi, annoba, ɓarna na tsari, amincewar mabukaci, ci gaban fasaha, da ƙididdiga.

Fed yana da kyau a lalata tattalin arziki
Fed ba shi da alaƙa da kowane ɗayan waɗannan direbobi. A zahiri, duk tarihin Fed ɗin shine ɓarna siyasa ɗaya bayan wani dangane da ɓata bayanan sake zagayowar kasuwanci.

Fed a fili ya haifar da Babban Mawuyacin ta hanyar ƙarfafa manufofin kuɗi a cikin 1927 - 1929 kafin faduwar kasuwar hannun jari na Oktoba 1929. Fed ya tsawaita wannan koma bayan tattalin arziki ta hanyar kiyaye manufofin da yawa.

{Asar Amirka ta fito ne daga koma bayan tattalin arziki na farko (1929-1932) na Babban Mawuyacin lokacin da FDR ta rage darajar dala akan zinariya a 1933. Kasuwar hannayen jari ta yi karfi daga 1933 zuwa 1936, amma Fed ya sake yin kuskure ta hanyar tsaurara manufofin a 1937, wanda ya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki a 1937-1938.

Wannan jeri na koma bayan tattalin arziki biyu ne tare da faruwa na biyu kafin mu murmure daga farkon wanda ya mayar da duk tsawon lokacin zuwa Babban Mawuyacin hali (1929-1940). Ɗaya daga cikin ƙarshe shine cewa Fed yana da iyakacin ikon taimakawa tattalin arzikin amma yana da kyau a lalata shi.

Abin sha'awa shine, Amurka tana da manyan bankunan tsakiya uku da dogon lokaci ba tare da babban bankin ba. Tun daga George Washington a 1789, Amurka ba ta da babban banki sai 1791. A wannan shekarar, babban bankin Amurka na farko da ake kira Bankin Amurka, wanda aka fi sani da First Bank of the United States, Majalisar dokokin Amurka ce ta yi hayarsa. An yi hayar shekaru 20 har zuwa 1811.

Bankin Farko na Amurka bai tsara manufofin kuɗi ko ƙimar riba ba, bai tsara wasu bankunan ba, bai riƙe ajiyar kuɗi da yawa ba, kuma bai yi aiki a matsayin mai ba da lamuni na ƙarshe ba.
Shari'ar da ke kan Fed - Shin Amurka tana buƙatar babban banki? Amma an yarda a ba da rancen kuɗi ga gwamnatin Amurka, kuma wannan shine batun. Bankin farko zai iya sauƙaƙe nasarar shirin Alexander Hamilton na ba da bashi na gwamnati da kuma fitar da sabuwar kasuwar lamuni ta gwamnati daga ƙasa ta hanyar nuna cewa Amurka ta kasance mai cin bashi. Dangane da haka, an yi nasara.

Majalisa ba ta sabunta yarjejeniyar bankin farko ba a 1811. Wannan lokaci na biyu na babu babban bankin Amurka bai daɗe ba. Yaƙin 1812, wanda aka yi yaƙi daga 1812 zuwa 1815, ya haifar da matsananciyar wahala akan kuɗin Amurka. Bashin kasa na Amurka ya tashi daga dala miliyan 45 a 1812 zuwa dala miliyan 127 a 1815.

Wannan halin da ake ciki na rashin kudi ya shawo kan ’yan siyasa da dama, ciki har da Shugaba James Madison, da su goyi bayan kafa bankin na biyu na Amurka. Dokar Majalisa ta ba da izini a cikin 1816 na tsawon shekaru ashirin. Bankin na biyu ya fara aiki a Philadelphia ranar 7 ga Janairu, 1817. Babban jigo a bankin na biyu shi ne Nicholas Biddle na Philadelphia, wanda shi ne shugaban bankin daga 1823 zuwa 1836.

Bankin na Biyu ya fara aiki mai wahala ta hanyar aiwatar da tsarin kudi mai sauƙi a cikin 1817 da 1818, wanda ya haifar da bunƙasar ƙasa da faɗuwa a cikin firgici na 1819. Bankin kuma ya tsananta samar da kuɗin, wanda ya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki, rashin aikin yi. , da faduwar farashin kadarorin.

Sai da Nicholas Biddle ya zama shugaban banki a cikin 1823 cewa Bankin na biyu ya sami manufofin kan ko da keel. Biddle an ladafta shi da ƙirƙirar kuɗaɗe mai inganci da madaidaicin manufofin kuɗi daga 1823 zuwa 1833, wanda ya taimaka wa Amurka tallafawa faɗaɗa tattalin arziki a wancan lokacin.

Andrew Jackson ya zama shugaban Amurka a 1829 kuma nan da nan ya tashi ya lalata Bankin na biyu. An shirya wa'adinsa zai ƙare a shekara ta 1836. Mai recharter na bankin ya zama babban batu a zaɓen 1832 a gwagwarmayar da ake kira Bankin War.

Jackson ya sake lashe zaben. Ya kai hari bankin ne ta hanyar cire asusun gwamnatin tarayya tare da karkatar da sabbin kudaden shiga na tarayya zuwa wasu zababbun bankuna masu zaman kansu. Jackson ya ki amincewa da lissafin recharter kuma an amince da veto. Bankin na biyu ya daina wanzuwa tare da yarjejeniyar tarayya a cikin Fabrairu 1836.

Shekaru 77 daga 1836 zuwa 1913, Amurka ba ta da babban banki. Ko shakka babu wannan ya kasance daya daga cikin mafi girma da kuma tsawon lokaci na wadatar tattalin arziki a tarihin duniya.

Akwai koma bayan tattalin arziki goma sha shida a cikin wannan lokacin, da firgici na kuɗi shida (1857, 1873, 1893, 1896, 1907, da 1910). Duk da haka, ci gaban gabaɗaya na haɓaka yana da inganci kuma wannan haɓaka gabaɗaya ba ta da hauhawar farashi kuma ta haɓaka ta hanyar sabbin fasahohi. Waɗannan sun haɗa da titin jirgin ƙasa, telegraph, tarho, kayan aikin gona, motoci, manyan gine-gine, wutar lantarki, da igiyoyin ruwa na teku.

koma bayan tattalin arziki ya kasance akai-akai tare da bankunan tsakiya kamar yadda babu. A cikin shekaru 110 tun lokacin da aka kirkiro Tarayyar Tarayya a 1913, Amurka ta sha fama da koma bayan tattalin arziki 20 ko bacin rai da firgici na kudi guda biyar, (1929, 1987, 1994, 1998, da 2008).

A cikin shekaru 77 ba tare da babban bankin tsakiya ba (1836-1913), ana samun koma bayan tattalin arziki daya a kowace shekara 4.8 akan matsakaita. A cikin shekaru 110 tun lokacin da aka kafa Tarayyar Tarayya (1913-2023), an sami koma bayan tattalin arziki guda ɗaya a kowace shekara 5.5. (Shawarar cewa rabin farkon 2022 koma bayan tattalin arziki ne bisa kashi biyu a jere na raguwar ci gaba, kuma bayyanar sabon koma bayan tattalin arziki a wannan shekara zai rage wannan mitar zuwa koma bayan tattalin arziki daya a kowace shekara 5.0).

Wannan ba wani babban bambanci ba ne a cikin jerin lokaci na shekaru 187, musamman idan aka yi la'akari da tsananin tsananin baƙin ciki (1929-1940), wanda ya faru akan agogon Fed. Sakamakon shine babban alaƙa tsakanin mitar koma bayan tattalin arziki tare da kuma ba tare da babban banki ba.

Sirrin Gaskiya A Bayan Tarayyar Tarayya
Wannan yana nuna cewa Fed da manufofin ƙimar riba ba su da alaƙa da koma bayan tattalin arziki. Matsalolin kasuwanci ne ke haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki da manufofin kasafin kuɗi. Fed na iya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki, amma ba zai iya warkar da su ba. Tattalin Arziki yana yin hakan da kansa.

A fuskarsa, ba ma buƙatar Tarayyar Tarayya don saita ƙimar riba. Kasuwar da alama tana yin kyakkyawan aiki na saita ƙimar da kanta. Ba ma buƙatar Tarayyar Tarayya don hana koma bayan tattalin arziki tunda suna faruwa akai-akai saboda dalilan da ba su da alaƙa da Fed. Ba ma buƙatar Tarayyar Tarayya don tabbatar da haɓaka tun lokacin da Amurka ta sami ci gaba mai ban mamaki daga 1836 zuwa 1913 ba tare da babban banki ba.

Idan Tarayyar Tarayya ba ta da wata muhimmiyar manufa wajen saita ƙimar riba, hana koma bayan tattalin arziki, ko tabbatar da haɓaka, me yasa muke da Tarayyar Tarayya kwata-kwata?

Amsar ta koma ga wani bakon jerin abubuwan da suka faru daga 1906 zuwa 1913. Waɗannan abubuwan sun bayyana ainihin maƙasudi da ainihin sirrin Tarayyar Tarayya.

A ranar 18 ga Afrilu, 1906, an yi wata babbar girgizar ƙasa da wuta da ta lalata birnin San Francisco. Sama da mutane 3,000 ne suka mutu kuma sama da kashi 80% na birnin sun lalace. Kamfanonin inshora nan da nan sun fara karkatar da kadarorin don tara kuɗi don biyan abubuwan da ake tsammani.

Wannan siyar ta sanya damuwa ga bankunan New York da kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari ta New York da sauran kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi a gabas. Haɗuwa da damuwa na rashin ruwa daga girgizar kasa ta San Francisco da kuma asarar amincewa daga rugujewar Kamfanin Amintattun Knickerbocker a New York ya haifar da gudanar da harkokin banki.

A tsayin firgici a ranar 19 ga Oktoba, 1907, Pierpont Morgan, shahararren ma'aikacin banki a Amurka kuma shugaban JP Morgan & Co., ya fara jerin tarurruka a dutsen launin ruwan kasa na New York City a kusurwar 36th Street da Madison tare da manyan bankuna da jami'an gwamnati. Ta hanyar shugabancinsa, Pierpont Morgan ya kusan ceci tsarin banki na Amurka.
Shari'ar da ke kan Fed - Shin Amurka tana buƙatar babban banki? Babban Tafiya zuwa Tsibirin Jekyll
Nan da nan bayan tashin hankali na 1907, masu banki da 'yan siyasa sun fara yin tambayoyi masu mahimmanci. Me zai faru a firgici na gaba? Pierpont Morgan ba zai rayu har abada ba. (A gaskiya ma, Morgan ya mutu a Roma a 1913). Wanene zai ceci tsarin a karo na gaba bankunan sun kasance a gefen rushewa?

Manyan bankunan sun yanke shawarar cewa ana buƙatar sabon babban bankin. Mahimmanci, wannan banki zai kasance mallakin kansu ne amma zai sami goyon bayan gwamnatin Amurka ta hanyar samun damar fitar da kuɗi. Mafi mahimmanci, wannan babban bankin zai iya yin aiki a matsayin mai ba da lamuni na ƙarshe ga bankunan Amurka masu zaman kansu.

Sanatan Amurka Nelson Aldrich (R-RI) ya zama zakaran siyasa na sabon babban bankin kasa. A cikin 1910, Aldrich ya shirya tafiya ta asirce zuwa wani kulob na musamman a Jekyll Island, Jojiya.

Wadanda suka hada da tafiya sun hada da Frank A. Vanderlip (Shugaban Babban Bankin Kasa na kasa da ke wakiltar bukatun Rockefeller), Paul Warburg (abokin tarayya a Kuhn, Loeb wanda ke wakiltar bukatun Yakubu Schiff da kudin Turai), Henry Davison (abokin tarayya a JP Morgan & Co. mai wakiltar muradun Morgan), Abram Andrew (masanin tattalin arziki kuma Mataimakin Sakataren Baitulmali da ke wakiltar Gwamnatin Amurka), da Benjamin Strong (Mataimakin Shugaban Bankin Masu Amincewar da Shugaban Babban Bankin Tarayya na New York na gaba).

A cikin mako guda, wannan rukunin ya rubuta abin da daga baya ya zama Dokar Tarayya ta Tarayya. An san shi a lokacin da Aldrich Plan.

Kungiyar ta san cewa Amurkawa sun tsani bankunan tsakiya tun bayan wafatin bankin na biyu na Amurka a shekarar 1836. Shi ya sa ba su kira kirkiro su da babban bankin ko Bankin Amurka ba.

Kira shi Tarayyar Tarayya ya kasance duka na yaudara da anodyne. An ɗauki shekaru da yawa kafin a kafa wannan doka, amma a ƙarshe Shugaba Woodrow Wilson ya sanya hannu kan dokar a ƙarshen ƙarshen 1913. Fed yana tare da mu tun lokacin.

Har wala yau an mallaki Bankunan Tarayyar Tarayya na yanki goma sha biyu a asirce ta bankuna a kowane yanki. Hukumar Gwamnonin Tarayyar Tarayyar Tarayya ne ke ba da jagora wanda Shugaban Amurka ya nada kuma mai tushe a Washington DC. Tsarin gabaɗaya shine cikakkiyar nau'ikan abubuwan jama'a da masu zaman kansu.

Haƙiƙanin manufar Tarayyar Tarayya ba shi da alaƙa da taimakon tattalin arziƙin, saita ƙimar riba, rage rashin aikin yi, ko duk wasu manufofin manufofin da kuke ji da karantawa. Ainihin manufar da sirrin Fed shine don ba da belin bankuna ta amfani da kuɗin gwamnati. Ma’aikatan banki suna hannunsu a kan injin buga littattafai.

Don haka, gajeriyar amsar ita ce, Amurka ba ta buƙatar babban banki. Amurka ta yi kyau ba tare da daya ba tsawon shekaru 77 daga 1836 zuwa 1913. Fed ba zai iya tada tattalin arziki ba. Fed ba ya haifar da sake zagayowar kasuwanci (amma yana iya yin muni da sau da yawa). Fed ba zai iya ƙirƙirar ayyukan yi ba.

Fed ɗin ya wanzu ne kawai don baiwa masu banki damar sarrafa kuɗi da kuma ba da belin kansu kusan sau ɗaya a cikin shekaru goma. Duk abin da kuka ji game da kara kuzari, samar da ayyukan yi, ƙimar riba, kwanciyar hankali na kuɗi, da ƙari kawai hayaniya ce. Tabarbarewar koma bayan tattalin arziki mai zuwa na iya tilasta wa wasu yin tambayoyi masu wuya da kuma yanke fikafikan Fed. Kawai kar a ƙidaya shi.

About the Author: Jim Rickards
Source: AltucherConfidential.com