Isonto Phambili: I-Geopolitics, Idatha Yezomnotho, Nokubuyiselwa Komhlaba Wonke

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ITHELELELI

IZIPHUMA

*Ngaphambili kwezepolitiki, ukukhishwa okuvela e-US nase China ekusayinweni okusondele kwesivumelwano sokuhweba sesigaba sokuqala nakho kungaba nomthelela.

*Ukuthambekela kwesonto elizayo kungavela embonweni wobungozi bemakethe.

Ngaphandle kwesimo esiphuthumayo, ekugcineni, kungahle kuxoxwe ngeHhovisi le-Oval naseBeijing. Njengoba izimakethe zizothatha isikhundla sikhululeke, ngesivumelwano sesigaba sokuqala okumele sivalwe emasontweni azayo, noma yiziphi izibalo ezibucayi zizohlola ukwenqatshelwa kwengozi kwempahla eyingozi kakhulu.

I-European Central Bank iveze isimemezelo sayo semali senyanga nenyanga ukuthi imininingwane yakamuva igxile ekulungisweni kwentuthuko yomhlaba. Ngokuqondile, imininingwane esekwe ekutadisheni efana ne-PMI ikhombisa ukululama okulingene ekukhiqizeni ukukhiqizwa kokukhishwa kanye nokulinganisela okuthile ekuthuthukisweni kokukhishwa kwezinsizakalo. Zonke izinto ezicatshangwayo, ukululama komhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi "kungasebenzi", kukhombisa ukulingana kwentuthuko ekwehliseni umnotho kanye nemiphumela ephansi kwezinye izimakethe ezisathuthuka.

E-Eurozone, noma kunjalo, ukushiyeka okuqhubekayo kokushintshaniswa komhlaba kuyaqhubeka kusinda emkhakheni wezokukhiqiza futhi kudikibalisa intuthuko yamabhizinisi. Imininingwane esekwe ekutadisheni, ngenkathi ihlala ibuthakathaka kakhulu, ikhombisa ukulungiswa okuthile kokungasebenzi.

Izilinganiso zokwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo e-Eurozone, ingxenye enkulu, zihlala zingabonakali. I-ECB ifakiwe, ukuthi izikhombisi ezisuselwa ezimakethe zemiphumela yesikhathi eside yokwehla kwamandla emali ziye zahlala emazingeni aphansi kakhulu, kuyilapho ukwehla kwamandla emali okusekelwe esifundweni ngokufanayo kuhlala kumazinga aphansi kakhulu.

Okwamanje, njengoba izimakethe eziningi zivaliwe phakathi nesonto lonke, amavolumu angaphinda abe sohlangothini olulula futhi, ikakhulukazi ezimakethe zase-Europe nase-US, kuyisonto elithule ngokulinganisela phambi kwekhalenda lezezimali kepha kufanele sithathe buka izisekelo obekugxilwe kuzo:

I-Geo-Politics
Ukuboshwa kukaTrump: Yize kungeke kube khona okwenzekayo esontweni elizayo, izintambo zezindaba kanye noMongameli wase-US bakude kakhulu nokuzola. Ekupheleni kosuku, noma kunjalo, mhlawumbe ngeke kube nomphumela oweqile ezimakethe zezimali zomhlaba wonke. AmaRephabliki anezinombolo ezinkulu kakhulu futhi ngeke amxoshe uTrump, ezimele kunoma yisiphi isimemezelo esibonisiwe.

Izingxabano Zohwebo: Izimakethe njengamanje zilindele usuku olusemthethweni lokuvalwa kwesivumelwano sesigaba sokuqala. Ngenkathi isivumelwano sesigaba sokuqala sigqugquzela ukuqoshwa kwamarekhodi ezinkomba ezinkulu zase-Europe nase-US, ukugxila kungaqala ukudlulela esigabeni sesibili. Uma nje isigaba sokuqala siyibhentshimakhi, isigaba sesibili kungenzeka ukuthi asizukufika esinqumweni esisheshayo. Ukuvuselelwa kweChina ukuqala izinhlelo zokuhlasela i-US kungahlola amandla we-speculator wezezimali ngasekuqaleni kwesonto.

Brexit: IPhalamende lase-UK lisekhefini kuze kube ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari. Lokho akuvimbanga i-EU ekutholeni umshini wokukhangisa osebenza ngesikhathi sekhefu lonyaka. UMongameli weKhomishini ye-EU, u-Ursula von der Leyen, umemezele ukuthi la maqembu womabili kumele acubungule isikhathi sokuvumelana. Ufake nokuthi ubekhathazeke ngokwedlulele ngokuthi isikhathi esifushane besitholakala kanjani.

Lezi zinkulumo bezingamangalisi, necebo lesikhathi eside le-EU lizokwazi ukuqhubeka.