Inkambo Yokuhweba

Inhlanganisela Yokuwina Yamasu Okuhweba

Esahlukweni 9 sizokukhombisa ukuthi imaphi amasu okuhweba ongawahlanganisa ukuze uthole imiphumela emihle (emibili ivame ukuba ngcono kuneyodwa).

• I-Elliott Wave: Iphethini yokubikezela
• I-Divergence Trading: Qagela ikusasa
• Uhlelo lokuhweba: Isu Lokubuyisela/Ukubuyisela emuva
• Isikhundla sokuvula nokuvala: Amasu amabili alula okuhweba
• Ukuxhumana Kwemali: Isu Eliyisisekelo - dlala izimali zakho njengomdlalo we-chess
• I-Carry Trade: Isu elihle elihlukile

Ukuhlanganisa Izinkomba

Esifundweni esidlule, sethule izinkomba ezibalulekile zobuchwepheshe. Siphinde sagqugquzela ukusetshenziswa kwezinkomba ezimbili kuya kwezintathu ngesikhathi esisodwa ngaphambi kokunquma ngethrendi nokuthi yiziphi izinyathelo okufanele zithathwe, kodwa hhayi ngaphezulu.

Ufunde ngezinkomba zobuchwepheshe futhi wabona izibonelo zokuthi zisebenza kanjani ngazodwana. Kodwa, njengoba sishilo ezifundweni ezedlule kulesi sifundo, indlela engcono kakhulu yokwakha isu le-forex ukuhlanganisa izinkomba.

Manje ake sibheke izinhlanganisela eziyisithupha eziwinayo (ngokubona kwethu) zezinkomba ze-forex, ukuze sisonge lesi sihloko:

I-Average ehambayo + Stochastic

Lokhu kungenye ye isu lethu lokuhweba esilithandayo nelidume kakhulu. ngokuhweba kwesikhathi esifushane, futhi ngokuvamile nangezimpawu zesikhathi eside. Njengoba ubona, i-stochastic ithengwe ngokweqile futhi intengo ingaphansi kwesilinganiso esinyakazayo esingu-100 ngaphambi kokuba ijike eningizimu. Leli isu le-forex elisebenza kahle kakhulu, ikakhulukazi uma kukhona amakhandlela okwakheka. Kuyisu eliyinhloko lokuhweba kuma-indices nasezimakethe zezimpahla futhi.

Amabhendi e-Bollinger + Stochastic

MACD + RSI

I-Parabolic SAR + EMA

I-Parabolic SAR + Stochastic

Fibonacci + MACD

Qaphela!

Sikubonise izibonelo ezithile ukuze sibonise ukuthi ukusebenzisa amathuluzi obuchwepheshe kusisiza kanjani nquma izitayela, izikhombisi-ndlela zesikhathi esizayo, okungenayo nokuphumayo kanye nenye idatha yemakethe edingekayo.

Ingabe konke kulula? Ingabe siphila ezweni eliphelele? Vele akunjalo!

Inkinga yokuqala ukuthi izexwayiso ezivela emakethe ngezinye izikhathi azilungile.

Zicabange ungumdlali we-NBA. Iqembu lakho lidlala no-Kobe Bryant kanye ne-LA Lakers. Abaqeqeshi bakho akubona abancelisayo, bazolungisa uhlelo lomdlalo, futhi bahlaziye izimbangi zakho ngokubuka amakhasethi nezibalo. Cabanga ukuthi ukuhlaziya kukhombisa ukuthi phakathi nemidlalo emihlanu yokugcina u-Kobe uthathe isilinganiso sokuphonswa okungu-7, waphinde wathola u-90% emgqeni. Bayazi futhi ukuthi uthanda ukuya kubhasikidi esuka kwesokudla, ngesandla sobunxele. Abaqeqeshi bazokulungiselela ukuthi uzame ukuncintisana nalawa maqiniso, ngenxa yamathuba aphezulu okuthi lezi zinombolo nedatha kuzofana phakathi negeyimu kusasa ebusuku. Ingabe unazo iziqinisekiso zokuthi izosebenza? Ingabe uqiniseka ngokugcwele ukuthi u-Kobe uzolandela lezi zinombolo? Vele akunjalo!

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi, kunconywa ukuba uzilungiselele. Okufanayo kuhambisana nokuhweba. Izinkomba zisebenza kahle kakhulu, kodwa zingase zibe nephutha futhi zikudukise.

Thatha ishadi elilandelayo njengesibonelo eliqukethe izinkomba ezimbili - EMA (eshadini) kanye ne-MACD (Ngaphansi kwayo):

Ungabona eshadini ukuthi amasignali abengalungile! Endaweni ephawulwe kwesokunxele eshadini, i-MACD (Thenga) ikuthola kungalungile- ungaqaphela ukwehla kwentengo ngemva nje kwesignali ethi BUY. Endaweni ephawulwe kwesokudla i-EMA ikwenza kungalungile- ayinikezi nhlobo isignali ye-uptrend ezayo, kuyilapho i-MACD inikeza isignali efanele ye-BUY.

Enye inkinga ukuthi kunezikhathi lapho izinkomba ezahlukene zinikeza amasignali ahlukene.

Esinye isibonelo esinezinkomba ezi-3 eshadini - Stochastic, RSI (zombili ngaphansi kweshadi) kanye ne-Parabolic SAR (eshadini):

Uyabona ukuthi zonke izinkomba zisikhomba ezenzweni ezifanayo. Bravo! Kuyintokozo ukwenza ibhizinisi nawe…

Qhubeka, ake sihlole izinkomba futhi silandele izexwayiso.

Lapha, ngakolunye uhlangothi, icala lihlukile. I-Parabolic SAR + Stochastic + RSI ibonisa ukuthi izinkomba ngokuvamile azihambelani nezinye ezingadala ukudideka phakathi kwabahwebi. Esimeni lapho inkomba ngayinye ikunikeza izexwayiso ezihlukene, kungcono ukuthi unganyakazi nhlobo! Linda amanye amathuba. Uma ufuna ukuvula isikhundla noma kunjalo - hamba neningi.

I-Elliott Wave - Iphethini yokubikezela

Esinye sezisekelo ezibalulekile zokuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe siqanjwe ngoRalph Nelson Elliott, isazi sezomnotho. Lena indlela yokuhlonza yamaphethini ohwebo. Isebenza njengethuluzi elihle lokubikezela izikhombisi-ndlela zamathrendi. I-Elliot Wave Theory isebenza kumgomo wokunyakaza kwamagagasi - abahwebi bashintshashintsha ngokuhamba kwemvelo, okuqhubekayo, okuphindaphindiwe, njengokulandelana kwamagagasi ashayeka ogwini. Sibhekisela kumagagasi njengezigaba. Isigaba ngasinye sezigaba eziyisishiyagalombili, yakha umnyakazo owodwa ongahlala izikhathi ezihlukene (uzowuthola emizuzwini emi-3, ungakhathazeki). Ngokwengqondo, abahwebi ngokuvamile basabela ngendlela efanayo kumagagasi ngamunye. Lokhu kusabela kudala iphethini ukuqhubeka kwayo okungabonwa kusengaphambili. U-Elliot wathola ukunyakaza okuvumelanayo, okuhlukile okwakulokhu kuziphindaphinda.

Inkinga - Abadayisi abaningi bavame ukuthembela kakhulu kule phethini, futhi akulungile ukubeka wonke amaqanda akho kubhasikidi owodwa! Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezimweni eziningi, amagagasi e-Elliott anzima ukuwabona. Abahwebi benza amaphutha okuqaphela kanye nokuhumusha okungalungile kwamashadi.

Ake sibone ukuthi i-Elliott Wave Pattern ibukeka kanjani kumashadi alandelayo:

Ungabona ukuthi iphethini ihlanganiswe ekuthambekeni kokuqala okukhulu (kulokhu- uptrend), eyakhelwe izigaba ezi-5 (Amagagasi 1 kuya ku-5), kanye nethrendi encane yesibili (kithi i-downtrend), eyakhiwe ngezigaba ezi-3 ( Amagagasi A kuya ku-C).

Inani lemithetho:

• I-Wave #2 ayisoze yadlula indawo yokuqala yegagasi #1;
• I-Wave #3 ayisoze yaba mfushane kakhulu ezigabeni ezinhlanu ezakha ithrendi yokuqala;
• I-Wave #4 ngeke ingene ebangeni lentengo lamagagasi #1. Uma kucatshangwa ukuthi i-uptrend, izohlala iphakeme kune-wave #1's top;
• I-Wave #2 kanye ne-wave #4 ngokuvamile iphetha ngokulingana kwe-Fibonacci

Naka zonke izigaba eziyi-8 ze-Elliot Wave eshadini elilandelayo:

Ingabe iphethini liyaziphinda futhi? Ibhingo!

Ukuhlonza i-Elliot Wave ngesikhathi kungakhiqiza inzuzo enkulu!

Nasi isibonelo esihle sokukhomba indawo yokuvula yamagagasi #3 nge I-Fibonacci's usizo (Isilinganiselo 0.618):

Ake sibone ukuthi kwenzekani ngokulandelayo:

Ezimweni eziningi, ukuphakama kwegagasi kucishe kufane nezilinganiso ezintathu eziyinhloko ze-Fibonacci (.50, .382, kanye .618).

I-Divergence Trading- Predict the future

Bekungeke yini kube kuhle uma ungabikezela izenzakalo zesikhathi esizayo? Isho, izinombolo eziwinile kulotho elandelayo? Masingathatheki… Asikwazi ukuvuma ukuthi siyakwazi ukwenza (ngokusobala asibona uHarry Potter), kodwa Amasu Okuhweba Okuhlukanayo usisize sibikezele ukunyakaza kwentengo okwengeziwe.

Ukwehlukana kwenzeka lapho izikhombisi-ndlela eshadini lentengo kanye nakuhlukaniswa kwegrafu ebonisayo. Uma kwenzeka ukwehlukana, kusisiza ukuthi sinqume ukuthi sibona indawo enhle yokuphuma/yokungena. Ukuhweba kwe-Divergence kusivumela ukuthi silinde ngokubulawa kwethu kuze kube seduze nendawo yokugcina kumkhuba, futhi ngokwenza kanjalo, sandise inzuzo futhi sinciphise izingozi ngesikhathi esifanayo!

Ungakwenza kanjani lokhu ngokusebenza? Kalula nje, qhathanisa ukunyakaza kwentengo eshadini nalokho okubonisa inkomba.

Ake sihlangane nezinhlobo ezimbili zokuhlukana futhi sihlole ukuthi zisebenza kanjani ngempela:

Ukuhlukana Okujwayelekile - Usitshela ukuthi umbhangqwana uyancipha futhi umkhuba usuzophela. Inkomba enhle yoshintsho esiqondisweni sethrendi.

Lapho intengo isuka phezulu iye phezulu, futhi inkomba isuka phezulu iye phezulu ephansi, kufanele uzilungiselele ukwehlukana kwe-bearish:

Naka the intengo, enyakazayo isuka kokuphansi iye kokuphansi ephezulu, futhi iye kusikhombisi esisuka kokuphansi siye kokuphansi. Kulokhu, igrafu ikhombisa ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo.

Umdwebo olandelayo ukhombisa ukwehlukana okufihliwe okufihliwe futhi ukhombisa ukuqhubeka kokwehla kwentengo:

Isibonelo ku-EUR/USD, ishadi lehora elingu-1:

Ake sibone ukuthi ukuhlukana okufihliwe kubukeka kanjani eshadini langempela, kusetshenziswa i-Stochastic:

Ungakwazi ukuqaphela "HL/LL Ukwehluka Okufihliwe Okufihlekile". Lolu hlobo lwe ukuhlukana isignali wukuqhubeka kwe-uptrend. Ngabe yilokho okuzokwenzeka lapha?

Ithiphu: I-Divergence iphumelela kakhulu ekuhwebeni kwesikhathi eside.

Khumbula: Izinkomba ezinconyiwe zokusebenzisa indlela ye-Divergence ikakhulukazi i-MACD, i-RSI kanye ne-Stochastics. Lapha kwesinye isikhathi sisebenzisa ukwehlukana kwethu izimpawu ze forex zesikhathi eside zokuhweba.

I-Divergence - Ungakhohlwa:

1. Ukudweba imigqa. Igebe phakathi kokuphakama okubili kwentengo noma ukwehla okubili kudingeka licace, ngaphandle kweziphazamiso.
2. Sebenzisa inkomba efanele.
3. Qhathanisa umugqa onamathiselwe eshadini lentengo nolayini onamathiselwe kugrafu yenkomba.
4. Uma uqaphela ukwehlukana sekwephuzile, akukho ukukhathazeka! Yiba nesineke futhi ulinde ukuthi kuvele okulandelayo.

Uhlelo Lokuhweba - Isu Lokubuyisela Ukulandelela kanye Nokuhlehlisa

Ukubuyisela ngokuvamile kwenzeka lapho umbhangqwana ufinyelela izilinganiso ezintathu ze-Fibonacci - 61.8%, 50% noma 38.2%, futhi uyama, ngaphambi kokubuyela endaweni yawo yonke.

Uma inani leqa wonke lawa mazinga futhi lidlula u-61.8%, kungase kube nethuba elihle lokuhlehla.

Ake sibuke isibonelo kubhangqa EUR/CHF:

Elinye ithuluzi elihle yi- I-Trendline Ukuhweba Isu. Uma sincishiswa ngentengo, cishe sesizobona ukuguqulwa:

Abadayisi abanolwazi sebeyazi into noma ezimbili mayelana nezimali. Bayazi ukuthi ezimweni eziningi, amapheya amakhulu afika eziqongweni zawo zansuku zonke ngesikhathi samahora asheshayo ezikhathi zakuqala ze-NY lapho iseshini yaseLondon isavuliwe. Bayazi futhi ukuthi ngokusebenzisa izinkomba ezimbalwa bangakwazi kakade ukuqagela izindawo ezijwayelekile eshadini lapho intengo izokhathala khona, yehlise ijubane, ihlehle, futhi ibuyele endaweni yayo evamile yansuku zonke.

Enye into futhi abangayenza ukuthola isilinganiso sansuku zonke sebanga lentengo yokubhangqa okuthile, ngesikhathi esikhethiwe (ngokusebenzisa ithuluzi le-ADR lokubala amapayipi avamile ansuku zonke! Uma i-ADR ibonisa ukuthi ibanga elithile lentengo phakathi nezinsuku ezingu-20 ezedlule libe ngu-120 pips ngosuku- ngaphandle kokuthi kwenzeke okuthile okumangalisayo namuhla, singacabanga ngokuphepha ukuthi kungaba uhla lwanamuhla cishe, futhi kusasa, njalo njalo, kuze kube yilapho kwenzeka umcimbi omkhulu oyisisekelo futhi uthinte imakethe.

Isibonelo sokuhweba:

Okokuqala, sicabangela idatha ebalulekile eshadini, kuze kufike ephuzwini lamanje. Esibonelweni sethu, sihweba ngeseshini yaseLondon. Ishadi elingezansi liyimizuzu eyi-10. ishadi (Uthi lwekhandlela ngalunye lumelela imizuzu eyi-10). Ishadi limele uhlaka lwamahora angu-5: 8am kuya ku-1pm GMT (isikhathi sase-London). Kusho ukuthini lokhu? Kusho ukuthi phakathi nehora lokugcina, iseshini yase-NY iqalile futhi yajoyina iseshini yaseLondon.

Noma kunjalo, sifisa ukuthola isilinganiso sansuku zonke sebanga lentengo. Lokhu kuzosinika inkomba mayelana nentengo kulo lonke usuku lomsebenzi, kuzo zonke izikhathi. Eshadini elingezansi singabona ukuthi phakathi nehora lokuvula namuhla eLondon, intengo yayingu-1.2882.

Okulandelayo, cabanga ukuthi sikhuluma lapha kuma-EUR/USD.

Uzoqaphela i-downtrend ngesikhathi seseshini yaseLondon. Intengo yehlela kokuphansi okungu-1.279 futhi ikhuphuka ibuye kancane iye ku-1.2812 ngemva nje kokuqala kweseshini ye-NY.

Manje, sisebenzise ithuluzi le-ADR futhi sathola ukuthi isilinganiso sansuku zonke samapayipi salokhu kubhanqwa ezinsukwini ezingama-20 ezedlule simi ku-120 pips ngosuku. Kusho ukuthini lokhu?

Kusho ukuthi manje sesingakwazi ukugxila emaphuzwini amakhulu kanye namaminithi eshadini lethu kuze kube manje: I-Maxpoint ingu-1.2882, kanti iphoyinti elincane ngu-1.2789. Singawasebenzisa ukubala ukusekela okungenzeka nokumelana nakho kamuva ngalolo suku, phakathi neseshini ye-NY. Izinga lokusekela okungenzeka libe yi-1.2762 (1.2882-120); futhi izinga lokumelana okungenzeka libe ngu-1.2909 (1.2789+120).

Kuze kube manje kuhle kakhulu, akunjalo?

Well manje kufika ingxenye olukhohlisayo. Lesi isinyathelo sobungcweti. Uma ufisa ukuhweba njengochwepheshe kuyadingeka ukuthi uphinde uhlole futhi uqinisekise isu lakho:

Manje sizohlola ipheya yethu kuma-Multiple Time Frames. Ake sihlole ipheya yethu eshadini lamahora angu-2 (Uthi lwekhandlela ngalunye lumelele amahora angu-2). Ngaleyo ndlela besikwazi ukubona ukuthi ukusekelwa okungenzeka kanye nokumelana esikubalile kucishe kufane nalokhu okulapha, noma kuhluke ngokuphelele.

Khumbula iFibonacci kanye namaphoyinti e-Pivot yizinkomba ezisebenza kahle kakhulu zesu lokuhlehlisa/lokubuyisela emuva.

Hhayi-ke, izinsolo zethu ziqinisekisiwe! Ungabona eshadini ukuthi i-1.2909 iyizinga eliqinile lokumelana! Naka okwenzeka ku-1.2762- Ihlala ncamashi phezulu kwe-0.5 Izilinganiso ze-Fibonacci! Qaphela ukuthi ekuqaleni isetshenziswa njengesisekelo, futhi lapho iphulwa, iphenduka ukumelana. Silindele ukuthi iphinde ibe yizinga lokusekela ngokuhamba kwesikhathi phakathi neseshini yamanje ye-NY!

Njengamanje sinohlelo lokuhweba oluvelele usuku lonke! Sithole ukuthi ukwesekwa nokumelana kuzoba kuphi, futhi sathola nebanga lentengo yansuku zonke. Sesizohamba.

Manje, siyazi ukuthi lesi sigaba esithile besinzima kakhudlwana. Thatha isikhathi sakho ukuyivumela ukuthi ingene.

Enye inkomba esebenza kahle naleli su Amaphuzu E-Pivot. Uma intengo yephula izisekelo noma ukumelana, kungase kube nethuba elihle lokuhlehla. Inqobo nje uma intengo ingawephuli wonke ama-pivots angu-3, ​​sizobona umkhondo kuthrendi evamile:

Izikhundla zokuvula nezokuvala

Usuzofunda amasu okuhweba alula kakhulu, anembile futhi ayisisekelo, afingqa izingxenye zendaba kuze kube manje kahle kakhulu.

Swing Trade – Isu lokuhweba lesikhashana. Ngokuvamile kuthatha izinsuku ezimbalwa kuya evikini. Umgomo walelisu ukugibela amathrendi akhona emakethe futhi uwasebenzise ngokusemandleni akho, ukuze wenze inzuzo esheshayo, kuyilapho usabela ngokushesha ezinguqukweni zokuziphatha kwemakethe. Umqondo uwukugibela igagasi. Wonke umkhuba omkhulu wakhiwe ngamaqembu amagagasi. Indlela yokunquma ukuthi uzothenga nini nokuthi uzothengisa nini ngokubheka amagagasi.

I-Fibonacci izosisiza futhi:

Futhi, kulokhu kuphela nge-Fibonacci - ake sibhekisise izitayela zangaphakathi engxenyeni yesibili ye-uptrend evamile - noma njengoba zibizwa kanjalo - 'ithrendi ngaphakathi kwethrendi'. Lelo gama livela kumashadi esikhathi esincane, uma ubheka ishadi lamahora angu-4 uzobona ukukhuphuka okukhulu. Kodwa, uma ushintshela ezikhathini ezincane ngesikhathi somkhondo, njengeshadi lemizuzu engu-15, ongakubona nje ukwehla. Sizohlola ukuthi ingabe i-pullback enempilo iyenzeka ngempela (uma i-pullback ihlangabezana nemibandela ye-Fibonacci ngaphakathi kwethrendi iyonke):

Amagagasi amabili phezulu, cishe ubukhulu obufanayo, ukulungiswa okubili, kabili ngesilinganiso esingu-0.50 noma izinga lokubuyisela le-Fibonacci elingu-50% - Hhayi-ke, sinephethini. Amathuba amahle okuthi i-swinging uptrend iqhubeke!

Amaphuzu amabili abalulekile okufanele acatshangelwe:

Ukuba nohlelo lokuhweba kubalulekile kuleli bhizinisi. Uhlelo lungase lungafani ncamashi kukho konke ukuhweba, okungukuthi ungalushintsha usuka kolunye uhwebo uye kolunye kuye ngokuhlaziywa, kodwa ukuba nohlelo lokuhweba kufanele. Ungabi nolaka kakhulu ngokuzama ukuwina wonke lo mkhuba. Akunakwenzeka ukubikezela ngokunembile iziqongo nokwehla. Ungaziphoqeleli uma wephuze ngethrendi ethile. Lindela olandelayo ukuthi afike! Njengoba isisho ku-forex sihamba, ungalandeli inani, livumele lize kuwe.
Setha Ukuyeka Ukulahlekelwa. Lokhu kubaluleke kakhulu! Sikweluleka ngokuqinile ukuthi uwabeke kuzo zonke izikhundla zakho! Zijwayeze ukusebenza ngama-oda 'wokuyeka ukulahlekelwa' kanye 'nokuthatha inzuzo'.

Ukuphumula - Isu le-Breakout lisebenza kahle kakhulu ezimweni ezihlukile zethrendi. Kule ndlela, sibheka izinga lokusekela kanye nokumelana. Uma sesihlonze ukuqubuka, lokho kuzoba indawo yethu yokungena, ngokulandela ukulindela ukuthi ithrendi izolandela leyo ndlela:

Ungakhohlwa ukusetha i-Stop Loss! Esibonelweni sethu, siyibeke ingxenyenanyana ngaphezu kwephuzu lokuqhuma (uma kwenzeka sibona okungelona iqiniso, okusho ukuthi, sinephutha!). Uma intengo isizuze ibanga elithile ukusuka endaweni yethu yokungena, singahambisa ukulahlekelwa kwethu kokumisa kancane phansi, ngaphansi kwendawo yethu yokungena. Amapulatifomu amaningi e-forex, njenge-MT4 ne-MT5, manje anikeza inketho uma ukulahleka kokumisa okulandelanayo. Kusho ukuthi ubeka ukulahlekelwa kokuyeka (yisho ama-pips angu-50) futhi njengoba uhwebo luqhubeka lujula enzuzweni, ukulahlekelwa kwakho kokumisa kuqhubeka kuhamba ngendlela efanayo, okwandisa inzuzo yenzuzo noma ngabe ibangelwa.

Khumbula: Ukuqinisekisa ukuthi inzuzo ihambisa i-Stop Loss yakho iqonde kuthrendi!

• Onxantathu bangamathuluzi amahle (uhlangane nawo ezifundweni ezimbalwa ezedlule) wesu le-Breakout:

Uma unxantathu unokulinganisa, isimo sihluka kancane. Ukugqashuka kungenzeka nhlangothi zombili, ngakho-ke senza kusebenze isenzo se-OCO (Omunye Khansela Enye). Setha okufakiwe okungu-2 - eyodwa ngaphezu kwe-vertex enye ngaphansi kwayo. Kufanele ukhumbule ukukhansela leyo okuvela ukuthi iphambene nendlela entsha yethrendi:

Ukuxhumana Kwemali (Isu Eliyisisekelo)

Dlala izimali zakho njengomdlalo we-chess

Amapheya emali ahlukene agcina ubudlelwano obuyinkimbinkimbi phakathi kwawo. Kwezinye izimo, isondelana futhi iqine futhi kwezinye iqhelelene futhi ingaqondile (njengabazala besithathu). Ukuhlobana kulinganisa ubudlelwano babo. Ngamanye amazwi, kubhekiselwa ekuxhumaneni phakathi kwamapheya amabili - ukuthi ipheya ethile izosabela kanjani ekunyakazeni kwamanye. Kwesinye isikhathi ukuhlobana kuphozithivu kanti kwesinye isikhathi kuba negethivu.

Okubalulekile: Kuhlala kunobudlelwano phakathi kwamapheya ama-2. Awekho amapheya awodwa ahluke ngokuphelele kuwo wonke amanye amapheya. Izimali ezihlobene nazo zinhle ku-a ukumboza isu lokuhweba.

Abadayisi abanolwazi ngokuvamile bavula isikhundla esingaphezu kwesisodwa ngesikhathi esisodwa (hweba ngamapheya angu-2 noma ngaphezulu ngesikhathi esisodwa). Ngemva kokuzijwayeza izinsuku ezimbalwa uzophenduka umthengisi ongcono futhi cishe uzofisa ukuvula isikhundla esingaphezu kwesisodwa isikhathi ngasinye. Yingakho kubalulekile ukuqaphela lobu budlelwano! Ukuhweba ngamapheya amaningi ngesikhathi esifanayo kuhle kakhulu ekwehliseni izingozi.

Ukubala Ukuhlobana kuyashintshashintsha esikalini ukusuka ku-1 kuye ku-1. I-1 ichaza ukuhlobana okuhle okuphelele (ukuxhumana okungu-100%) phakathi kwamapheya amabili. Ukubhanqa nokuhambisana 1 kuhamba ngendlela efanayo 100% wesikhathi. Uma ukuhlobana kulingana no--1, kumelela ukuhlobana okungalungile phakathi kwamapheya amabili. Amapheya amabili ahamba ngendlela ephambene 100% wesikhathi.

Izinkomba ezifana ne-FTSE 250, NASDAQ, DAX njll. ngokuvamile zihlotshaniswa kahle, futhi zingahluka ukusuka ku-0.5 kuye ku-1. Kulokhu, nokho, ezinye zezinkampani ezisohlwini lwalezi zimakethe zingase zihlotshaniswe kabi, kuye ngemboni. Isibonelo, izinkampani ezisebenza ngobuchwepheshe bokuhamba zenza izinjini ezintsha noma izinjini ezisebenzisa uphethiloli omncane noma ezingasebenzisi nhlobo. Ngakho-ke, lapho lezi zinkampani zakha izinhlobo zezinjini ezintsha futhi zinciphisa ukusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli, intengo yamasheya yalezi zinkampani iyenyuka, kuyilapho amanani entengo ezinkampani zikawoyela ehla. Singasho ukuthi ukuhlobana phakathi kwalezi zimboni ezimbili kuhlobene kabi.

Ukulinganisa u-0 kubonisa ukuthi akukho ukuxhumana okubonakalayo phakathi kwamapheya amabili. Kuleso simo, akunakwenzeka ukwenza noma yiziphi iziphetho mayelana nethonya lebhangqa elilodwa kwelinye.

Okubalulekile: Awudingi ukubala noma yini! Kukhona amasayithi ezezimali akwenzela wonke umsebenzi ngokwethula amathebula okuxhumana ngemva kokubala izilinganiso. Okuwukuphela kwento osele ukuyenza ukufunda idatha kuthebula.

Isibonelo, ake sibuke amaleveli okuhlobana phakathi kwe-EUR/USD namanye amapheya amakhulu ezikhathi ezihlukene (kusukela ngomhla ka-30 Julayi 2016):

Kuthebula: Ungabona, ngokwesibonelo, ukuthi ukuhlobana phakathi kwe-EUR/USD kanye ne-USD/CHF kubi kakhulu noma kuhle kakhulu, kuzo zonke izinkathi ezethulwe kuthebula (ngaphandle kwenkathi eyodwa noma ezimbili). Kusho ukuthini lokhu? Ithi ufisa ukuhweba ngalawa mapheya ama-2 - ungawavuli amabili amasignali forex noma ukuhweba oku-2 okuya ohlangothini olufanayo (okusho ukuthi, kokubili kuzohamba nge-bullish noma ku-bearish), ngaphandle uma usebenzisa isu lokubiyela, kodwa ngezindlela eziphambene. Uma ucabanga ukuthenga ipheya eyodwa, kufanele udayise elinye.

Ngenxa yokuxhumana kwawo okuqinile (ukuxhumana okuqinile phakathi kwawo), empeleni besingeke sihwebe ngalawa mapheya amabili ngesikhathi esisodwa. Ngeke kubangele noma yikuphi ukunciphisa ubungozi bakho! Eqinisweni, ukunyakaza okufana nalokhu kuzonyusa ubungozi bakho! Kungaba ngcono kakhulu ukuhlukanisa ukuhweba kwakho phakathi kwamapheya ngokuhlangana kwengxenye.

Isibonelo: I-EUR/USD (ishadi elingakwesokunxele) kanye ne-GBP/USD (ishadi elingakwesokudla) kwakubukeka kanjani, eshadini lamahora angu-8 (inani lesikhathi senyanga engu-1). Iya etafuleni: ungabona ukuthi ukuhlobana phakathi kwabo kungu-0.96, cishe kuphozithivu ephelele. Manje usuyaqonda ukuthi kungani amashadi abo efana ngokoqobo. Ngeke kube ubuhlakani ukuhwebelana ngawo womabili lawa mapheya ngoba kuzonyusa ubungozi bethu. Cabanga ngakho, kungafana nje nokuthenga amaphakheji amabili afanayo!

• Akunconywa ukuhwebelana ngamapheya anokuxhumana okuphelele okuhle/okubi, noma okucishe kuphelele. Asikho isidingo sokuthenga ipheya elilodwa ngenkathi uthengisa elinye, ucabanga ukuthi "manje nginecebo elilinganiselwe". Kufana nokuthenga ipheya futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo ukuyithengisa ngentengo efanayo. Futhi, uzokhokha ikhomishini ephindwe kabili ngoba ukhokhela umthengisi wakho ngezikhundla ezimbili!
• Khumbula: Ukuxhumana kuyashintsha ngezikhathi ezihlukene. Bheka etafuleni lethu. Ukuhlobana kwamasonto onke phakathi kwe-EUR/USD ne-GBP/USD kulingana no-0.96, kuyilapho ukuhlobana kwanyanga zonke phakathi kwamapheya afanayo kulingana no-0.42! Kufanele uqaphele kakhulu lezi zinguquko. Izilinganiso zokuhlobana ziyashintsha ngenxa yezizathu ezibalulekile 'phakathi kwazo izinguquko emazingeni enzalo, imicimbi yezepolitiki, nezinye izimbangela.
• Ungakhohlwa ukuthi izindaba ezimayelana nokubhanqwa okuthile zingase zibe nomthelela kwezinye izinhlobo zemali (ngakho-ke nakwamanye amapheya).
• Ukuxhumana kusisiza ukuthi sisabalalise futhi sinciphise izingozi.

Ithiphu: Hlukanisa ukuhweba kwakho ngababili ngokuhambisana okuqinile (kodwa okungenamandla kakhulu). Ububanzi obuhle bungu-0.5-0.7 futhi -0.5 - -0.7.

Ithiphu: Ikuvumela futhi ukuthi uhlole amasiginali okuhweba we-forex kumapheya athile. Uma ukholelwa ukuthi ipheya elithile selizogqashuka eshadini, ungahlola ishadi lamapheya afanayo ukuze ubone ukuthi kwenzekani lapho.

Amapheya ohlobo lwemali ahamba ngendlela efanayo:

• I-EUR/USD kanye ne-GBP/USD
• I-EUR/USD kanye ne-AUD/USD
• I-EUR/USD kanye ne-NZD/USD
• I-USD/CHF kanye ne-USD/JPY
• I-AUD/USD kanye ne-NZD/USD

Amapheya ajwayelekile anyakazayo:

• I-EUR/USD kanye ne-USD/CHF
• I-GBP/USD kanye ne-USD/JPY
• I-USD/CAD kanye ne-AUD/USD
• I-USD/JPY kanye ne-AUD/USD
• I-GBP/USD kanye ne-USD/CHF

I-Carry Trade – Isu Elingcono Elihlukile Eliyisisekelo

I-Carry Trade Strategy isebenza ngokuthengisa, noma “ukuboleka” (ifinyeza) imali enenani lenzalo ephansi; kanye nokuthenga (“ukuboleka”) imali enenani lenzalo ephezulu. Njengamanje i-CHF, JPY, ne-EUR anezilinganiso zenzalo eziphansi kakhulu, kuyilapho i-NZD ne-AUD zinamazinga aphezulu kakhulu. Sibonise lokhu kuthebula emakhasini ambalwa okuqala alesi sifundo, ngakho-ke cabangela lezi zinhlobo zemali uma ufuna ukusebenzisa leli su.

I-Carry trade iwuhlelo olusebenzayo lwenzuzo lapho imakethe "iphumula". Izinzuzo ezingaba khona zisuka emehlukweni (umehluko) phakathi kwezilinganiso zenzalo zombili zezimali, kanye nokulindelwe izinguquko zesikhathi esizayo kulezo zilinganiso zenzalo ezimbili. Okusho ukuthi, ingxenye yokucatshangelwa komdayisi lapho ekhetha i-pair "yokuthwala ukuhweba" kuyoba yilokho akulindele ukuthi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izinguquko ezilinganisweni zenzalo eyodwa noma zombili zemali zababhangqwana zizokwenzeka. Uma umehluko ukhula, umhwebi uyahola, futhi ngokuphambene nalokho.

Isibonelo:

Ithi uya ebhange ucele ukubolekwa imali engu-$20,000. Ibhange ligunyaza ngenzalo yonyaka engu-2%. Ngayo yonke imali oyibolekile uthenga amabhondi ukuze utshale imali, azokukhiqiza inzalo yonyaka engu-10%.

Kuhle, ubungeke ucabange? Isebenza kanjalo iCarry Trade.

Ukubanjwa kweCarry Trade kudume kakhulu phakathi kwabahwebi abanolwazi. Kukhona ngaphezu kwabathengi abambalwa abanikeza le sevisi ngokuzenzakalelayo endaweni yabo.

Abahwebi kufanele baqaphele izinguquko zenzuzo ezingalindelekile kwezomnotho ezithuthukile, amazwe omhlaba wesithathu kanye nezikhathi ezingazinzile.

Okubalulekile: Le sistimu ivamise ukusebenza kahle kubadlali “abasindayo” nabaqagela imali enkulu, abatshala imali enkulu, abafisa ukukhiqiza izinzuzo ezinhle ngamanani enzalo.

Isu Lokuhweba Nge-Forex Isibonelo:

Ake sicabange ukuthi uno-$10,000 wokutshala imali. Esikhundleni sokuya ebhange lakho futhi mhlawumbe uthole inzalo yonyaka engu-2% ($200 ngonyaka), ungase utshale imali yakho ku-Forex futhi uhambe u-Carry Trading ngepheya ekhethiwe. Ngokusekelwe kulokho okufundile mayelana nokusebenzisa amandla, ungakhetha ukusebenzisa u-$10,000 wakho ngokunengqondo- uwusebenzise izikhathi ezi-5. U-$10,000 wakho manje usubiza u-$50,000. KULUNGILE, naka manje: uvule isikhundla esibiza u-$50,000 nge-$10,000 yangempela. Cabanga ukuthi phakathi nonyaka olandelayo, isilinganiso sokuhlukanisa sizoba ngu-5% (ngamanye amazwi, umehluko phakathi kwezilinganiso zenzalo zamathuluzi angu-2 wepheya oyikhethile uzokhula ngo-5%). Ubungazuza u-$2,500 ngonyaka! (U-2,500 u-5% wezi-50,000) Ngokutshala nje imali ekushintsheni kwezinga lenzalo nezilinganiso. U-$2,500 ungama-25% otshalomali lwakho lokuqala, lokuqala kulesi sikhundla!

Kukhona 3 amathuba lapha:

1. Uma uhlobo lwemali oluthengayo luphahlazeka futhi lulahlekelwe inani, uzolahlekelwa yimali oyitshalile (kungakhathalekile ukuthi iluphi uhlelo lwe-“carry trade”. Uzolahlekelwa ngenxa yokuthi imali ilahlekelwe inani elikhulu kunaleyo obungayizuza ngomehluko wesilinganiso senzalo).
2. Uma umbhangqwana ohwebayo ugcina inani lawo, unonyaka ozinzile ngaphandle kwezinguquko, uzozuza ku-5% yokuhlukanisa isilinganiso! Lena injongo ye-Carry Trade: yenza imali ngamanani enzalo, hhayi ukunyakaza kwentengo kumashadi.
3. Uma imali oyithengayo iqina futhi nenani layo likhuphuka, uwina kabili! Kokubili kusuka esilinganisweni sokuhlukanisa esingu-5% kanye nenani eliqinile lokubhanqwa emakethe

Okubalulekile: Uma isilinganiso sokuhlukanisa sokubhanqwa okuthile silingana no-#%, kusho ukuthi uma ufisa ukuyithengisa (uthenge uhlobo lwemali lwekhawunta ngokuthengisa uhlobo lwemali oluyisisekelo), isilinganiso siyaguqulwa (-#%). Isibonelo, njengoba izilinganiso zenzalo zimi ngoJulayi 2016, uma isilinganiso esihlukile se-NZD/JPY uma uthenga i-NZ Dollars singu-0.2.60%, kungaba -2.60% uma unquma ukuvula indawo yokuthengisa kulokhu kubhanqwa, okusho ukuthi, ukuthenga yens ngokuthengisa amadola.

I-Carry trade iyindlela yokuhweba enconyiwe yezinhlobo zemali ezinobungozi obuncane, ezimele izimakethe eziqinile ezinomnotho ozinzile.

Ungakhetha kanjani ipheya efanele?

Okokuqala, sibheka ipheya enesilinganiso sokuhluka okuphezulu kakhulu. Umbhangqwana kufanele usuzinzile isikhathi eside. Izimo zamanje ze-Uptrend ziyakhethwa, ikakhulukazi uma uhlobo lwemali oluqinile lwalokhu okubili kuyilona oluzoqiniswa. Singathanda ukukhetha ipheya equkethe uhlobo lwemali elinenani lenzalo eliphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa okulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke nakakhulu esikhathini esizayo esiseduze; futhi ngakolunye uhlangothi, uhlobo lwemali olunezinga lenzalo eliphansi kakhulu (isibonelo, i-NZD noma i-JPY), okulindeleke ukuthi ligcine izinga elifanayo esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.

Khumbula: Amapheya adumile e-Carry Trade njengamanje yi-AUD/JPY; I-AUD/CHF; I-EUR/AUD EUR/NZD, AUD/CHF, kanye ne-NZD/USD.

Bheka isibonelo esilandelayo seshadi le-NZD/JPY:

Leli ishadi lansuku zonke (ikhandlela ngalinye limelela usuku). Uzoqaphela ukuthambekela okuqinile kwe-bullish ukuphuma ngemuva kwe- I-referendum yeBrexit. Siyazi ukuthi inzalo ku-JPY ngo-2016 ingu-0.10. Izinga lenzalo ku-NZD ngesikhathi esifanayo ngu-2.25%, elinamandla amahle okukhuphuka. Okusho ukuthi, sinokupheya okunomehluko ophezulu (ukuthenga i-New Zealand Dollars ngenani lenzalo elingu-2.25% kuyilapho sithengisa i-yen yaseJapane enenani lenzalo elingu--0.1%. Amazinga ahlukene engeza inzalo efika ku-2.35%!). Ngaphandle kwalokho, qaphela inzuzo ephezulu obungayithola kumkhuba we-bullish wepheya ngokwawo!

Ukuhweba ngokushintshashintsha noma ukuhlomula emazingeni enzalo kungenye yezinzuzo ze-forex ezinye izimakethe zezimali, njengezinkomba noma izimpahla, ezinganikezi. Ukuthenga amasheya ahlukene kufana kakhulu ngoba i-dividend ithatha indawo yezinga lenzalo.

Practice

Iya ku-akhawunti yakho yokuzilolonga futhi asiqeqeshe izifundo esisanda kuzifunda:

• Zama ukuthola izimo lapho izinkomba ezimbili ezihlukene zibonisa izimpawu eziphambene eshadini elifanayo.
• Zama ukukhomba amaphethini we-Elliott Wave futhi uhwebe ngawo.
• Sebenzisa indlela ye-Swing Trade futhi uvule izikhundla ngokusekelwe kuyo.
• Ukuhwebelana ngokusebenzisa isu Lokuhweba Kwe-Divergence (Okuvamile Futhi Okufihliwe). Khetha ukuthi iyiphi inkomba ozosebenza nayo.
• Bheka amaphuzu e-Breakout ngokusho okufundile.
• Vula izindawo ezimbili ngesikhathi esisodwa (ngamapheya amabili ahlukene) ngokuya ngesu eliyisisekelo Lokuxhumana Kwemali.

Imibuzo

1. 1. Yini i-Elliott Wave? Abukeka kanjani amaphethini? Bhala phansi imithetho nemibandela; Khomba amagagasi angu-8 (izigaba) eshadini elilandelayo:

1. Ukuxhumana: Kukuziphi izimo lapho kungekho phuzu lokusebenzisa le ndlela?
2. I-Carry Trade: Sitshala kuphi lapho sisebenzisa le ndlela? Sikhetha kanjani ipheya esizoyithwala nayo i-Carry Trade?

Izimpendulo

1. Igagasi #2 ngeke libe lide kunegagasi #1.

I-Wave #3 ayisoze yaba mfishane kunawo wonke amagagasi angu-5 okuqala (ithrendi yokuqala).

I-Wave #4 ayisoze yangena ebangeni lentengo le-wave #1. Thatha i-uptrend - izohlala igcina endaweni ephakeme kune-wave #1s' top.

2. Lapho ukuhlobana kuyinegethivu ngokuphelele / iyinhle, noma icishe iphelele, incazelo, ukuhlobana kulingana no-1 noma -1, noma ukuvala; uma ukuhlobana kufinyelela ku-0, abukho ubudlelwano phakathi kwezinhlobo zemali ezimbili.

A

3. Sitshala kuzilinganiso zenzalo umehluko phakathi kwezinhlobo zemali ezimbili. Ipheya elihle lokuhweba lingaba nesilinganiso esiphakeme sokuhluka, okulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke.

Amasheya anikeza izabelo ezingabhekwa njengezinga lenzalo. Lokhu kusinikeza ithuba lokusebenzisa i-'carry trade strategy'. Uthenga amasheya enkampanini enenzuzo ephezulu kanye nombono ongcono ngenkathi uthengisa amasheya enye inkampani enenzuzo ephansi futhi inombono ongemuhle kangako.