Kutengeserana neCentral Banks - Zviito

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Central Bank (CB) yenyika ipi neipi ndiyo inonyanya kukosha mumusika wemari yenyika iyoyo. Vakuru veCentral Bank, nemutungamiri wavo/sachigaro vari pamusoro, vanobata masimba emari yenyika imwe neimwe kana nzvimbo yehupfumi. Muenzaniso wakakwana weiyi iEurozone. Ndivo vanosarudza chinhu chese chenguva refu mari inofamba. Ehe, kune vamwe vatori vechikamu pamusika mumusika weforex senge vatengesi, vanofungidzira, hedge funds, yechipiri level mabhangi nezvimwewo, asi ivo vanowanzo fambisa musika munguva pfupi kusvika pakati petemu.

ICentral Bank inogona kudhinda chero mari uye kuipinza mumusika (iyo inoderedza mari) kana kutora chero mari kubva pamusika iyo ichakoshesa mari. Nokudaro, sevatengesi ve forex tinofanira kuziva iyo chaiyo yemari yemari yeCentral Banks uye inogona kuitika mune ramangwana shanduko mumutemo - saka, zvakasununguka, nzira yekutengeserana nayo. Pano tichatsanangura maitiro aungaite kutengesa zvichienderana nezviito zveCB. Zviito zvacho zvinogona kunge zviri mubereko wakachekwa, kukwidzwa kwemitengo, chirongwa cheQuantitative Easing, tapper, kupindira kwemusika (uko CB inotenga kana kutengesa mari), simbi yekusimbisa kana kubvisa, nezvimwe.

Kutengesa zviito zveCentral Bank kunogona kuve zano rinopa mari

Kutengesa zvinotarisirwa

Kune nguva dzose zvinotarisirwa mu forex. Izvi zvinogona kupinzwa mumusika nevezvehupfumi, vezvenhau vezvemari, vanoisa mari, vanofungidzira uye, hongu, nevakuru veCB pachavo. Tinofanira kuziva nzira yekutengesa zvinotarisirwa, nekuti kazhinji zvinotonyanya kukosha kupfuura chiitiko chacho. Dzimwe nguva, zvinotarisirwa pamusika zvinofambisa mutengo wemari kumusoro kana pasi uye panguva iyo chiitiko chinoitika chave chatove chave chave chichitengeswa.

Muenzaniso wakakwana weiyi kukoshesa kweUS Dollar kubva muzhizha ra 2014. Upfumi hweUnited States huri kupora zvakanaka mushure mematambudziko emari e2008, kunyanya muna 2013 na 2014. Saka, zviri pachena kuti vatori vechikamu vemusika we forex vanotarisira kuti FED kukwidza mitengo yemubereko China inotevera, iyo inenge yakavimbiswa. Wese munhu anga achipinda kwenguva refu paBuck kubva, achiitenga kwegore nehafu. Parizvino, Dhora rave padhuze nedanho rayo repamusoro mukati memakore anopfuura gumi zvichipesana nedengu remari. Izvi zvinoreva kuti musika watove nemutengo-muyero yekukwira neFED. Iyi nhanho inotarisirwa yakareva kukoshesa kwe 30-35 cent yeUSD mune inopfuura zvishoma gore. Hongu, izvo zvakatenderedza 3,000-3,500 pips.

Fungidzira iwe wakatenga gumi mijenya USD / CAD zhizha rapfuura uye uine moyo murefu uye guts kubata chinzvimbo kusvika zvino. Akaunti yako ingadai yakave $10 yakakura pari zvino. Tinogona kuona imwe 300,000-2 cent kutenda kweUSD apo FED inokwidza mitengo neChina chinotevera, asi izvo hazvina basa mukuona kwekufamba kukuru uku kunotungamirwa nezvakatarisirwa.

Kamwe kusagadzikana kwapera mushure mekukwira, musika unovaka zvinotarisirwa zvitsva. Iyo FED yakazokwidza mitengo, zvino chii? Musika uyu hauchazove nezvakatarisira kune kumwe kukwira munguva pfupi, saka vanobva paUSD refu zvinzvimbo uye vodzosera kumashure, vachitambura kumwe kurasikirwa. Manzwiro aya achagara kusvika musika watanga kuvaka zvinotarisirwa zvakare kune imwezve chiyero chekukwira.

Saka kana iwe ukanzwa mazwi asina mhosva kubva kunhengo dzeCB pamusoro pekusimbisa mutemo wemari, zviri nani utenge nekuti chimwe chinhu chikuru chiri kuuya uye haudi kupotsa kufamba. Dzimwe nguva maonero anoumbwa nebhomba rimwe chete rinodonha, rakafanana nemutungamiri weECB Draghi akaendesa muna May 2014. Kunze kwebhuruu, akazivisa kuti ECB ichatanga chirongwa chikuru cheQE kupomba Euro mumusika. Kubva chiziviso ichocho, Euro yakarasikirwa nemasendi angangoita makumi maviri nemashanu pavazhinji vakuru kusvika chirongwa chakatangwa muna Ndira 25.

Kutengesa mabvi-jerk reaction

Mushure mekutarisira kwechiitiko, icho chinowanzova chinonyanya kukosha chikamu uye mukuru wemusika anofambisa, there'sa knee-jerk reaction mumaminetsi mashoma ekutanga. Kuita uku kunogona kutora mutengo kubva pa40-50 pips kusvika kumasendi mashoma. Uku hakusi kufamba kukuru kwechiitiko asi zviri nyore kutengesa kana iwe uchigona kuvhura nekukurumidza. Mamwe mabroker haatenderi kutengesa nhau uye mamwe anomisa nhandare yekutengesa, asi unogona kutengesa zviziviso zveCB nevazhinji mabroker. Asi, kuuraya kunofanirwa kukurumidza kuitira kuti kutsvedza kusave kwakakura, nekuti izvi zvinowanzoitika panguva dzekusagadzikana. Kutengesa mabatiro ari nyore, unoenda negwara remari.

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Kuti udzidze zvakawanda nezvekutengesa nhau: Kutengesa Nhau - Forex Trading Strategies

Kuti uwane zvimwe nezve kushata kwekutengesa: Maitiro Ekushandura Volatility MuKufarira Kwako - Forex Trading Strategies

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Euro yakadzikira mushure mekuderedzwa kwemutengo asi yakazodzokera kumashure

Kutengesa chiitiko

Unogona kuita purofiti yekukurumidza yemakumi mashanu - mazana maviri pips kutengesa kuita uku, asi handiko kutengeserana chaiko kwechiitiko. Iyo CB Monetary policy shanduko ine mhedzisiro yenguva refu iyo inoverengera zvakanyanya kupfuura mafambiro ekutanga kuita. Apo ECB yakatanga chirongwa chavo cheQE munaJanuary, Euro yakarasikirwa nemasendi maviri zuva iroro asi kutengeserana kwechokwadi kwaiva munguva refu. Euro yakarasikirwa nemasendi angangoita gumi mumwedzi miviri inotevera.

Chinhu chimwe chetecho chakaitika neJapan YEN. Iyo BOJ yakazivisa chirongwa chakafanana kunonoka muna 2012 uye USD / JPY yakawana anopfuura mazana maviri pips zuva iroro. Vatengesi vazhinji vakabuda vaine purofiti yakanaka, asi vakapotsa kutengeserana chaiko. Kubva ipapo, vaviri ava vakawana masendi makumi mashanu. Vaya vatengesi vakave nemoyo murefu vakabatsirwa zvakanyanya kubva mukufamba kwenguva refu uku. Kana iwe wakaenda kureba USD/JPY panguva iyoyo uine gumi mijenya, unenge uine madhora zviuru mazana mashanu muakaundi yako.

Iwe haufanirwe kubata chinzvimbo chese kufamba. Iwe unofanirwa kuziva kuti kana CB yakazivisa shanduko yakakosha yemari, senge chirongwa cheQE, kufamba kunogona kugara kwemakore, uye unogona kutenga pane zvese zvakadzokororwa (ingotora nzira kwayo). Asi kutengesa chiitiko chikuru hakusi nyore nguva dzose. Zvinobata pano ndezvekuti mhedzisiro yenguva refu kana kutungamira kwenguva refu inogona kunge isingaenderane neiyo CB chiito.

Mumavhiki maviri apfuura, takave nemienzaniso miviri yakakwana yeizvi. Iyo ECB yakaunza gumi bps deposit rate yakachekwa sezvatataura pamusoro uye mwedzi mitanhatu yekuwedzera QE. Kazhinji, iwe ungafunga kuti Euro yaizodonha. Yakadonha inosvika zana pips mushure mekuita kwekutanga asi yakadzokera kumashure nekukurumidza uye yakawana anenge 10 pips kubvira. Imhaka yekuti vatori vechikamu vemusika vaitarisira zvakawanda uye vakaodzwa mwoyo.

Saka, kune chiitiko chikuru, iwe unofanirwa kuenzanisa saizi yekuchinja kwemari yemari nezvinotarisirwa pamusika. Kana tarisiro yakadzikira pane chiitiko chakaziviswa neCB, mhedzisiro yacho inowedzerwa uye mafambiro anokonzeresa akakura. Ndiko kwaive kuderera kwesendi makumi matatu neshanu muEUR/USD kubva pakuzivisa kweQE muna Chivabvu 35 neECB. Kana zvinotarisirwa zvakakwirira kudarika shanduko yakaziviswa, kutengeserana kukuru kunowanzoenda kune nzira yakapesana nekuita kweCB, yakadai se2015 pip kuwana muEUR / USD yatataura pamusoro apa.

USD/JPY yakawana mazana maviri pips pazuva rekutanga reQE chiziviso muna 200 uye maitiro akaenderera kune mamwe masendi makumi mashanu.

Saka, kutengesa iyo Central Banks kune pundutso, asi kwete nguva dzose iri nyore zano. Izvo zvinotarisirwa uye maitiro ekutanga ari nyore kutengesa, asi iwe uchiri kufanirwa kuwana gwara chairo uye kuita kutengeserana nekukurumidza. Iko kutengeserana kukuru kwakaoma zvishoma; iwe unofanirwa kuverenga shanduko yemari yekuchinja nenzira kwayo uye kuienzanisa netarisiro yemusika. Dzimwe nguva musika unotora mutengo munzira imwechete sekushanduka kwemutemo wemari weCB uye dzimwe nguva kune imwe nzira. Muchinyorwa chinotevera tichatsanangura nzira yekutengesa iyo CB rhetoric.