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Commodity currencies are taking control of the American session thanks to a recovery in European indices. Dow futures are also up now. The Canadian dollar emerged from the shadow of the sharp drop in oil prices, outperforming the Australian dollar, and the kiwi.
The pound sterling was weaker at the time of writing, but there has been no additional selling since the initial decline. The yen and Swiss franc are the next weakest, while the dollar and euro are unpredictable. In general, forex traders refuse to take any action before the results of the US election.
Technically, the US stock market could see a strong bounce, and the DOW will need to decisively break the key level at 2765.11 before confirming the bottom. The level is very far, and we do not expect to test it today. However, USD/JPY could be in the spotlight as it started feeling heavy right ahead of the nearest 105.05 resistance.
Failure from there will maintain a short-term bearish trend, at least once again around 104.02 support.
The dollar as a whole is strengthening today, although risk sentiment is not bad, as can be seen from the rally in the major indices. Sufficient data from China was enough to offset pessimism about restrictions in Europe and a sharp drop in oil prices. Sterling is currently the weakest, followed by the Australian dollar and the kiwi.
Volatility is guaranteed this week, the main event of which is the US presidential election. The three central banks will meet while important data such as ISM and NFP are presented.
The Dollar’s Fundamental Backbone Eroded
In their weekly strategy report, Citibank analysts believe that the Federal Reserve’s overly loose quantitative easing policies, lower for longer rates, and average inflation targeting indicate a decline in the US dollar over time.
As for the US elections, they see Trump’s victory as an opportunity to undermine the recovery of global trade and likely damage the euro; while Biden’s victory will support currencies that are strategic allies such as Europe, Japan, and emerging markets and negatively affect the dollar.
Regardless of who wins the November elections, fundamental support for the US dollar has weakened since the onset of the COVID crisis and is unlikely to change in the medium term. The Fed’s super free quantitative easing and cut policies for longer rates and medium inflation targeting indicate a decline in the US dollar over time. Meanwhile, the US federal deficit is simultaneously growing rapidly, which could also adversely affect the US dollar.
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