He aha kēlā me kēia mea kālepa e pono ai e ʻike e pili ana i drawdowns

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"Eia nō naʻe, ʻoluʻolu ke lanakila ma luna o ka wā lōʻihi. Kūlike ʻole i ka manaʻo kaulana, ʻo nā lilo ka ʻāpana o ka lanakila ʻana. E laʻana i nā haʻuki. " - Markham Gross

ʻO kahi drawdown ka hōʻemi kiʻekiʻe-i-ke kua i loko o kahi manawa moʻolelo kikoʻī o kahi hoʻopukapuka, kālā a huahana paha. Kuhi ʻia kahi drawdown ma ke ʻano he pākēneka ma waena o ka piko a me ke pā. Ana ʻia kahi drawdown mai ka manawa e hoʻomaka ai kahi retrenchment a hiki i ka wā e kiʻi ai i kahi kiʻekiʻe hou. Hoʻohana ʻia kēia hana no ka mea ʻaʻole hiki ke ana ʻia ke awāwa a hiki i ke kū ʻana o kahi kiʻekiʻe hou. Ke hiki i ke kiʻekiʻe hou, hoʻopaʻa ʻia ka pākēneka mai ke kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe a hiki i ka pahu liʻiliʻi loa (kumu wehewehe: Investopedia).

E like me kāu e ʻike ai, drawdowns (a i ʻole nā ​​ʻōwili i lalo) he mau manawa ke ʻike ʻoe i nā nalo a iho i lalo kāu moʻokāki. Inā wehe ʻoe i kahi waihona me $ 10, 000 a hāʻule ia i $ 9,200, a laila ʻike ʻoe i kahi drawdown o 8%.
Nā kumu o Drawdowns
E waiho i ka hihia o ke kālepa ʻana me ka ʻole o ka kū a me ka makaʻu kiʻekiʻe. E noʻonoʻo e hoʻohana nei kekahi i kahi hoʻolālā maikaʻi e hōʻoki iā ia i kāna nalo ma 50 pips a holo i kahi loaʻa kālā a hiki i 200 pips. He manaʻo kālepa maikaʻi kēlā e loaʻa kālā ana ke ʻano maikaʻi nā pālua kālā. Eia nō naʻe, ke hiki mai kahi manawa o nā drawdowns, hoʻonāukiuki hou ʻia nā hana a lawe i nā pae loaʻa paʻakikī paʻakikī ʻole. Lawe nā mea i nā pae loaʻa i hōʻemi ʻia i mea liʻiliʻi loa e hoʻōla i nā kū he nui i hoʻomaka ʻia. Wehe ʻoe i nā kālepa he nui a neʻe lākou i kāu ʻoluʻolu e kekahi a i ʻole kekahi mau pips a laila huli maikaʻi ʻole, ke pā nei i kou kū. No nā lā, mau hebedoma, a mau mahina paha, ʻaʻole hoihoi kahi haʻihaʻi wahaheʻe a kākaʻikahi ka neʻe ʻana o ka neʻe ʻana.

ʻO nā manaʻo kālepa e hoʻokuʻu i nā loaʻa kālā ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, akā ʻeha lākou i ka wā e komo ai nā mākeke i nā pae kaulike.

E like me ke ola maoli, hana ʻole i nā mea kūpono ʻaʻole ʻoe e ʻike i ke akamai. I ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻike paha ʻoe i kekahi manawa i ka lapuwale ma ka hana ʻana i nā mea kūpono. ʻO ka mea kālepa e hoʻohana nei i kahi kū e ʻike ʻia he naʻaupō ke kū ʻia lākou i kahi ʻoihana e huli hope a huli maikaʻi. Hiki paha i kahi mea kālepa ke lapuwale ke kūleʻa kahi kūlana a lākou e hoʻāʻo nei e hoʻokō i kāna pahuhopu, e hoʻohuli ana mai ka positivity a i ka negativity. Akā i ka hopena, e ʻohi mākou i nā pono o ka hana ʻana i nā mea pono.

Koke, hiki mai kahi manawa e loli ai ke kūlana a e hoʻōla hou ke kanaka i nā nalowale i loko o nā lā, mau pule a mau mahina paha.

Heluhelu Hewa
E nānā i nā hopena lōʻihi o nā hoʻolālā ma lalo:

Kumumanaʻo A:
Ka ulu: 343.80%
Kiʻi: 37.45%
Ka mahina: 19.09%

Kumumanaʻo B:
Ka ulu: 119.40
Kiʻi: 22.08%
Ka mahina: 10.51%

Kumumanaʻo C:
Ka ulu: 12.04%
Kiʻi: 11.16%
Ka mahina: 0.49%
Hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻike he loaʻa maikaʻi nā hoʻolālā ma luna i ka holo lōʻihi, akā ʻaʻole me ka ʻole o nā ʻōwili. Ua loaʻa i ke Kumumanaʻo A kahi loaʻa kālā o 343.80% i loko o nā makahiki, akā ua hele pū kekahi i nā wā o nā pohō i 37.45%. ʻO nā mea hoʻohana o nā hoʻolālā e hana kūleʻa me nā ʻōwili i lalo kūleʻa; i ʻole ua nalowale lākou.

Ke hana nei kekahi mea kālepa i ka hype i loaʻa iā ia kahi hoʻolālā e hiki ai ke hoʻolilo i $ 500 i kahi loaʻa kālā ulu e ulu nei. E like me kāu e ʻike ai, ʻo ka hana a ka poʻe kālepa e hoʻokūkala i ka ʻaoʻao huali o kā lākou mea e kūʻai aku ai, ʻoiai e alohi ana i ka ʻaoʻao pouli. Me he mea lā e haʻi aku ana kahi haʻi pule haipule i nā mea maikaʻi e hiki mai ana iā lākou ke hui pū lākou me kā lākou hoʻomana, me ka ʻole o ka haʻi ʻana aku iā lākou i ka palekana o nā poʻe haipule mai ka ʻeha ʻana - ke hiki mai kahi ōlaʻi, ʻaʻole ia e pale i ka poʻe haipule i loko. ka ʻāina.

ʻAʻole wau i hoʻāʻo i kēlā hoʻolālā hyped - ʻoiai ua hoʻāʻo wau ma luna o 250 mau hoʻolālā i kaʻu ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa. ʻAʻohe papahana kūpono a ʻaʻole hoʻokahi. Loaʻa nā hoʻolālā kālepa maikaʻi āpau i nā drawdown. Loaʻa i nā mea kalepa nui āpau nā drawdowns, ʻoiai ka lanakila ma ka hopena.
Minamina, ʻo ke kumuhana o nā drawdowns ka mea liʻiliʻi i ʻōlelo ʻia ma ka ʻoihana kālepa, a aia wale nō kahi puke liʻiliʻi e pili ana i ke kumuhana, ʻoiai ʻo ia kekahi o nā kumuhana nui i ke kālepa ʻana. Pono e ʻike i nā drawdowns mai kēlā me kēia manawa e nā mea kālepa āpau me ka nānā ʻole i ka makahiki, ka ʻike, ka loea, nā makahiki o ka ʻike, ka hiki ʻana i ka hoʻokele a me nā hoʻolālā. ʻO kēia kahi e hoka ai ka hapa nui o nā mea kālepa. ʻO kou hiki ke hana kūleʻa i ka drawdowns ka mea hoʻoholo nui loa o ka pāʻani hopena a ʻo kou hiki ke hauʻoli i kahi ʻoihana lōʻihi.

ʻO ka nalo liʻiliʻi, ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o ke ola ʻana. ʻO ka pohō nui, ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ke ola ʻana.

Aia kekahi mau manawa ke loaʻa kālā ʻoe; aia kekahi mau manawa ke lilo kāu kālā a aia kekahi mau manawa ke pālahalaha kāu hana (ʻaʻole ʻoe e piʻi i luna a i lalo). ʻAʻohe ala e pili ana i kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo. ʻAʻohe ala e pili ana i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ʻoe e kākoʻo i nā pohō āu e ola ai ma hope. ʻOi aku ka lōʻihi o nā wā pālahalaha a me nā lā drawdown ma mua o kāu e manaʻo ai. ʻAʻole hoʻololi ke kaʻina hoʻololi i ke ala i waho. Hiki i kahi pōhaku ʻōwili ke hōʻiliʻili i kekahi lumina?

ʻO ia ke kumu he kūpono ʻole ke hoʻonohonoho i kahi pahuhopu i kēlā me kēia pule a mahina paha i loko o ka honua kahi hiki ʻole iā ʻoe ke wānana i ka wā e hiki mai ana. ʻO ia ke kumu e kūpono ai ka wehe ʻana i kahi kālepa ma hope wale nō o kou noʻonoʻo ʻana i kahi hanana maikaʻi loa. Me kēlā ʻano noʻonoʻo, ʻike ʻoe i ka lapuwale o ka hoʻohana ʻole ʻana i nā kū a me ka lapuwale o ke kālepa ʻana me nā nui nui. Eia nō naʻe, loaʻa i ka hapanui o mākou i nā pilikia koʻikoʻi psychological a me ka naʻau.

ʻO kekahi o nā mea hoʻonāukiuki loa ka hoʻomau ʻana i ke kālepa ʻana ke hoʻomau ʻoe i nā pohō. E hoʻopau ʻia kou manaʻolana o kahi loaʻa kālā o ka mahina a e hoʻopau ʻia kou koa. Hiki i ka huhū ke lilo i ʻoi aku ka ikaika, keu hoʻi inā ʻoe e noho i kahi ʻāina kahi āu e hana ai i kāu uila ponoʻī a me ka wahie he lahilahi a pipiʻi hoʻi.

He aha nā mea kālepa maikaʻi
Hoʻomaopopo wau i ka mea i loaʻa iaʻu ma 2011. Ke loaʻa nei kaʻu loaʻa kālā maikaʻi ma kahi o ʻehā mau mahina: a i 30% (6,000 pips). A laila hiki koke, ua loli ke ʻano o ka mākeke a ua nalowale wau ma hope o ka nalo ʻana. Mālama mau wau i ka mālama ʻana i koʻu pilikia, kūpaʻa i ka ʻōnaehana aʻu i hoʻohana ai. Ua hala nā wā nalo ma kahi o ʻekolu mau mahina a iho au mai 30% pips a i 15%, a emo ʻole ... ua maikaʻi hou ke ʻano o ka mākeke a hoʻopau wau i kēlā makahiki me 49% loaʻa.

I kahi makahiki maʻamau, hiki iā ʻoe ke hana i 10% i Ianuali a me 6% i Pepeluali. Hiki iā ʻoe ke hana i 3% i Malaki a lilo i 9% i ʻApelila. Hiki iā ʻoe ke lilo iā 4.5% i Mei a lilo i 5% hou i Iune. Hiki iā ʻoe ke loaʻa iā 4% i Iulai a lilo i 4% i ʻAukake. Hiki iā ʻoe ke loaʻa iā 11% i Kepakemapa a loaʻa iā 6.5% hou i ʻOkakopa. Hiki iā ʻoe ke loaʻa he 15% i Nowemapa a hoʻopau iā Kēkēmapa me kahi 2.5% ʻē aʻe. Ehia mau mea e hoʻopau ai ka mea kālepa i ka makahiki? ʻO kēia ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o ke kālepa ʻana, kahi āu e ʻae ai a hele aku ai e hana i kahi mea ʻē aʻe.

ʻO ka poʻe i kapa ʻia he poʻe kālepa Forex he poʻe pāʻani kālā i manaʻo he maikaʻi lākou. Lilo lākou i ka hugely a loaʻa i nā kāhea palena i nā drawdowns.

'Saysleloʻo Anton Kreil e loaʻa ana iā ʻoe ma kahi o ʻekolu mau mahina (a ʻoi a ʻoi a ʻoi iki paha) i hoʻokahi makahiki e ʻike ai ʻoe i nā drawdowns no ka mea āu e hana ai. Pehea ʻoe e wehewehe ai i kēia i kāu mea hoʻopukapuka? Pehea ʻoe e wehewehe ai i kēia i kou ʻohana?

Ke kaupalena ʻoe i kahi pohō, ʻae ʻoe i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ʻaʻohe ona hopena nui i kāu waihona i kēlā me kēia manawa, no ka weliweli o ke kūlana. Hiki iā ʻoe ke nānā i kāu mōʻaukala moʻokāki a i ʻole nā ​​hopena kālepa i hala aku nei i mea e hōʻoiaʻiʻo ai iā ʻoe iho, me ka ʻike maopopo e hoʻomaka hou ana kāu ʻōnaehana no ka mea ua hana i ka wā ma mua. Paipai ʻia ʻoe e hoʻomau i ka lawe ʻana i nā hōʻailona hou (no ka mea ʻaʻole ʻoe i ʻike i nā mea e lanakila a hoʻōla hou i kāu mau nalowale), ka mālama ʻana i ke aʻo a me ka mālie.

I lilo i mea kālepa lanakila mau, pono ʻoe e kaohi i kāu mau poho a kaupalena i kāu mau ʻōwili. He mea ʻoluʻolu paha ka hōʻole ʻana e ʻae i kahi kuhihewa a nānā ʻole i ka hoʻohana ʻana o nā kū, a ʻo ka hoʻowalewale e hana i nā mea lapuwale e ʻōpala. I ka hapanui o nā hihia, hoʻi paha nā kumukūʻai i kāu mau helu komo ma hope o nā manawa hoʻonāukiuki o ke kali a me ka manaʻolana, ʻoi aku paha ka lōʻihi ma mua o ka maʻamau. E loaʻa kekahi mau hihia kahi e pau ai ka manaolana no ka hōʻole ʻana o nā kumukūʻai e hoʻi hou i kou makemake, ke hele nei i mua a kūʻē iā ʻoe. Hiki ke pau nā waiwai āpau a me ke kapikala āu i loaʻa ai. Hoʻomaopopo nā koa kūpuna āpau i ka nui o ka mālama ʻana i ka nalo ʻana ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokūpaʻa ʻia, no ka mea ʻo ia ke kumu no ka 95% o nā mea kalepa ʻaʻole hiki ke kūleʻa ma ke ʻano he kālepa.

Ma Trade2win, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Barjon, "Malia paha ke kani nei kēia mau mea āpau me he mea lā ke ʻike ʻia ka manaʻo o kā mākou mea kālepa a he kilokilo paha ia e hiki ke ʻike i ka wā e hiki mai ana. ʻAʻohe mea kālepa. ʻO ke kālepa āpau e pili ana i ka hana ʻana i nā manaʻo i hoʻokumu ʻia i ka ʻike o nā mea i hana ʻia i nā ʻano like i ka wā i hala. Ua pololei paha kēlā mau manaʻo a i ʻole hewa paha lākou a mai ka ʻike ʻoihana ka pahuhopu e loaʻa ka pono kūpono ke kūpono lākou a kaohi i ka pohō inā ʻaʻole lākou. "

Ua pau kēia mokuna e nā ʻōlelo ma lalo:
"ʻO kā mākou hanana hanana maikaʻi loa no ke kumumanaʻo maʻamau kahi e hiki ai i ka mea kālepa ke lilo i 70 pākēneka o ka manawa me ka lakio uku pānaʻi o 3: 1. Me kēia mau helu helu hiki i ka mea kālepa ke loaʻa mau ka waiwai. Mālama nā mea lanakila i ka poʻe eo. ” - Manesh Patel

"ʻO ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o nā mea kālepa lanakila lanakila kiʻekiʻe a me ka poʻe i hele iki ʻole ke ʻano e lawe ai lākou i nā poho. ʻOihana kālepa kahi ʻoihana paʻakikī kahi maʻa mau nā pilikia a me nā pohō. Inā ʻaʻole ʻoe akahele, hiki iā ʻoe ke hōʻeha, kuʻi i lalo, a makaʻu hoʻi i ke ala hou. He paʻakikī paha ia i kekahi manawa, akā pono pinepine e poina e pili ana i ka wā i hala. - Joe Ross

 

Ua lawe ʻia kēia ʻatikala mai ka puke i kapa ʻia: Wehe i kāu hiki me nā ʻoiaʻiʻo o ke kālepa ʻana