Ma hope o ka hālāwai ECB, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka EURO i ka hoʻi ʻana o ke kālā ma lalo o GDP Miss

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He mea nui ka hopena o ka hālāwai ECB e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia. Uaʻae ka poʻe kulekele i kaʻoi aku o ke kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻonuiʻana ma mua o ka mea i manaʻoʻia, akā ua hōʻemi lākou i ka pono e hoʻonui koke i nā uku. ʻAʻole i hoʻololi ʻia nā ʻano kulekele kālā a pau, me ka nui o ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana, ka nui o ka hōʻaiʻē marginal, a me ka uku hoʻopaʻa kālā i koe ʻole i hoʻololi ʻia ma 0%, 0.25 pākēneka, a me -0.5 pākēneka. Ua holomua ka PEPP e like me ka mea i hoʻolālā ʻia a manaʻo ʻia e hoʻopau ʻia i Malaki 2022. Ma hope o ka pau ʻana o ka PEPP i Malaki 2022, e ʻike ʻia ka hālāwai ʻo Dekemaba i nā wānana waiwai hou a me ka hoʻolaha kūkala o ka hoʻolālā loaʻa waiwai.

Ke hoʻomau nei ke kālepa ʻana, ua paʻa nā pairings nui a me nā keʻa i loko o ka pae o nehinei. ʻIke ʻia ka ʻaha kūkā o ka ECB e hoʻonui iki i ka euro, akā ʻaʻohe mea kūʻai ma hope. Ua ʻoi aku ka nāwaliwali o ke kālā ma hope o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā helu helu Q3 GDP ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ka manaʻo. Me ka nānā ʻana i ka manaʻo hoʻoweliweli ākea, ʻoi aku ka palupalu o nā kālā waiwai.

Ma hope o ka ʻaha kūkā, ua Ua piʻi kiʻekiʻe ka EURUSD. ʻOiai hiki ke kuhikuhi ʻia kekahi o kēia i ka nāwaliwali o ka USD ma hope o nā helu GDP maikaʻi ʻole, ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia ka mākeke e ka wānana inflation a ka ECB. ʻOiaʻiʻo, e like me ka ʻikepili hou loa, ua lele ka piʻi ʻana o Kelemania i + 4.5 pakeneka y / y i ʻOkakopa, ʻoi loa i loko o ʻekolu mau makahiki, mai ka +4.1 pakeneka o ka mahina ma mua. ʻOi aku kēia ma mua o ka ʻae ʻana o +4.4 pakeneka.

Ma ke ʻano o ka ʻenehana, e hoʻi hou ka Euro i ke koena o ka pule. E hoʻomaka hou ʻia ka rebound mai 1.1523 inā haki ka pale liʻiliʻi o 1.1668. ʻO ka haʻihaʻi o ka pae kū'ē liʻiliʻi o 0.8467 ma ka EUR / GBP e hōʻike ana i kahi hoʻohaʻahaʻa pōkole ma 0.8401. Ma ka EUR / AUD, kahi haki o ke kū'ē liʻiliʻi ma kahi o 1.5598 e hōʻailona pū i kahi hoʻohaʻahaʻa pōkole ma 1.5393. Inā haʻihaʻi kēia mau pae a pau, aia ka Euro ma ka ʻaoʻao o ke kau ʻana i kahi rebound kokoke i ka wā ākea.

Mālama ʻo ECB i ke kūlana, hoʻomau i ka PEPP ma kahi wikiwiki

E like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, ua hoʻomau ka ECB i kāna kulekele kālā. E noho ana ka hale hōʻaiʻē marginal a me ka uku ukupanee ma ka 0.00 pakeneka, 0.25 pakeneka, a me -0.50 pakeneka. ʻAʻole i loli ka wānana.

"Ke manaʻo nei ka ʻAha Kūkākūkā e noho mau ka uku paneʻe ECB i ko lākou mau pae i kēia manawa a i ʻole ka haʻahaʻa a hiki i ka ʻike ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana o ka piʻi ʻana i ʻelua pakeneka ma mua o ka pau ʻana o kāna horizon projection a lōʻihi no ke koena o ka horizon projection. ma ke kumu o ka hoʻonui ʻana ua lawa ka holomua e kūlike me ka piʻi ʻana o ka piʻi ʻana i ʻelua pakeneka ma luna o ka manawa waena," Heluhelu ka olelo. Hiki paha i kēia ke hōʻike i kahi pōkole pōkole o ka piʻi ʻana ma luna o ka pahuhopu. "

E hoʻomau ʻia nā kūʻai ʻana o PEPP a hiki i ka hopena o Malaki 2022, me ka huina kālā o EUR 1850B. E hoʻomau ka loaʻa ʻana o ka waiwai waiwai “ʻoi aku ka mālie” ma mua o Q2 a me Q3. E hoʻomau ʻia ke kūʻai ʻana i nā APP ma ka helu mahina o EUR 20 biliona.

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