Ciniki Babban Bankin - Ayyukan

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Babban Bankin (CB) na kowace ƙasa shine mafi mahimmancin ɗan kasuwa don kudin ƙasar. Jami'an Babban Bankin, tare da shugabansu/shugabansu a sama, suna da ikon tafiyar da manufofin kuɗin kowace ƙasa ko yankin tattalin arziki. Cikakken misali na wannan shine yankin Euro. Su ne madaidaicin al'amari don duk motsin kuɗi na dogon lokaci. Tabbas, akwai sauran masu shiga kasuwa a cikin kasuwar forex kamar masu zuba jari, speculators, shinge kudi, bankunan matakin biyu da dai sauransu, amma yawanci suna fitar da kasuwa a cikin gajeren lokaci zuwa tsakiyar lokaci.

Babban bankin na iya buga kowane adadin kudi ya shigar da su cikin kasuwa (wanda zai rage darajar kudin) ko kuma ya kwaso duk wani kudi daga kasuwa wanda zai kara darajar kudin. Sabili da haka, a matsayin 'yan kasuwa na forex dole ne mu san ainihin manufofin kuɗi na manyan bankunan tsakiya da kuma yiwuwar canje-canje a nan gaba a cikin manufofin - to, a zahiri, yadda za a yi ciniki da shi. Anan zamuyi bayanin yadda zaku iya kasuwanci dangane da ayyukan CB. Ayyukan na iya zama raguwar ƙimar riba, haɓakar ƙima, shirin Sauƙaƙe ƙididdigewa, mai tafawa, sa hannun kasuwa (inda CB ke siya ko sayar da kuɗi), tilastawa fegi ko cirewa, da sauransu.

Ciniki ayyukan Babban Bankin na iya zama dabara mai fa'ida sosai

Kasuwancin tsammanin

Kullum akwai tsammanin a cikin forex. Masana tattalin arziki, kafofin watsa labaru na kudi, masu saka hannun jari, speculators da, ba shakka, jami'an CB da kansu za su iya shigar da waɗannan zuwa kasuwa. Ya kamata mu san yadda ake kasuwanci da tsammanin, saboda sau da yawa sun fi mahimmanci fiye da taron da kansa. Wani lokaci, tsammanin kasuwa yana haifar da farashin kuɗi sama ko ƙasa kuma a lokacin da abin ya faru an riga an saka farashi a ciki. Ayyukan farashin bayan taron yana da kadan idan aka kwatanta da farashin farashin kafin taron.

Cikakken misali na wannan shine ƙimar dalar Amurka tun lokacin rani na 2014. Tattalin arzikin Amurka yana murmurewa sosai bayan rikicin kudi na 2008, musamman a cikin 2013 da 2014. Don haka, a fili mahalarta kasuwar forex suna tsammanin FED zuwa a kara yawan kudin ruwa a ranar Alhamis mai zuwa, wanda kusan tabbas. Kowa ya dade yana shiga Buck, yana siyan shi tsawon shekara daya da rabi. A yanzu haka, Dalar ta kusan kusan matakinsa fiye da shekaru goma a kan kwandon kudaden. Wannan yana nufin cewa kasuwa ya riga ya yi farashi-a cikin ƙimar ƙimar ta FED. Wannan yunƙurin da ake tsammanin yana nufin kusan ƙimar 30-35 na USD a cikin ɗan fiye da shekara guda. Ee, wannan yana kusa da 3,000-3,500 pips.

Ka yi tunanin ka sayi 10 kuri'a USD/CAD lokacin rani na ƙarshe kuma ka sami haƙuri da ƙarfin riƙe matsayin har yanzu. Asusunku zai kasance $300,000 mafi girma a yanzu. Za mu iya ganin wani darajar 2-4 na dalar Amurka lokacin da FED ta haura farashin ranar alhamis mai zuwa, amma hakan ba shi da wani tasiri idan aka yi la'akari da wannan gagarumin yunkuri da ake sa ran.

Da zarar rashin daidaituwa ya ƙare bayan hawan, kasuwa zai gina sabon tsammanin. A ƙarshe FED ta haɓaka ƙimar, yanzu menene? Kasuwar ba za ta sami ƙarin tsammanin wani tashin hankali nan ba da jimawa ba, don haka sun tashi daga dogon matsayi na USD kuma suna juyar da haɓakar haɓaka, suna fama da wasu asara. Wannan ra'ayin zai šauki har sai kasuwa ta fara gina tsammanin sake yin wani karin farashin.

Don haka lokacin da kuka ji maganganun da ba su da laifi daga membobin CB game da ƙarfafa manufofin kuɗi, zai fi kyau ku saya saboda wani babban abu yana zuwa kuma ba kwa son rasa motsin. Wani lokaci ra'ayi yana samuwa ta hanyar jefa bam guda ɗaya, kamar wanda shugaban ECB Draghi ya ba da a watan Mayu 2014. Daga cikin shuɗi, ya sanar da cewa ECB za ta fara babban shirin QE don fitar da Yuro a kasuwa. Tun daga wannan sanarwar, Yuro ya yi asarar kusan cents 25 akan yawancin manyan masana'antu har sai an ƙaddamar da shirin a cikin Janairu 2015.

Kasuwancin halayen gwiwar gwiwa

Bayan tsammanin taron, wanda yawanci shine mafi mahimmancin sashi kuma mafi girman kasuwa, akwai alamar gwiwa a cikin 'yan mintuna na farko. Wannan halayen na iya ɗaukar farashin daga 40-50 pips zuwa 'yan cents. Wannan ba shine babban motsi na taron ba amma yana da kyawawa don kasuwanci idan kuna iya buɗewa da sauri. Wasu dillalai ba sa ƙyale cinikin labarai wasu kuma suna daskare dandalin ciniki, amma kuna iya cinikin sanarwar CB tare da yawancin dillalai. Amma, kisa dole ne ya kasance cikin sauri don kada zamewar ba ta da yawa, tun da yake wannan yana faruwa ne a lokutan rashin ƙarfi. Kasuwancin amsa yana da sauƙi mai sauƙi, kuna tafiya tare da jagorancin manufofin kuɗi.

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Yuro ya ragu bayan an rage farashin amma daga baya ya koma baya

Ciniki taron

Kuna iya samun riba mai sauri na 50 - 200 pips cinikin wannan amsa, amma wannan ba shine ainihin cinikin taron ba. Canje-canjen manufofin kuɗi na CB suna da tasiri na dogon lokaci wanda ke da yawa fiye da motsin matakin farko. Lokacin da ECB ta fara shirin su na QE a cikin Janairu, Yuro ya yi asarar kusan centi biyu a wannan rana amma ainihin cinikin ya kasance cikin dogon lokaci. Yuro ya yi asarar kusan centi 10 a cikin watanni biyu masu zuwa.

Haka abin ya faru da YEN na Japan. BOJ ta sanar da irin wannan shirin a ƙarshen 2012 kuma USD / JPY ta sami fiye da 200 pips a wannan rana. Yawancin 'yan kasuwa sun fita tare da riba mai kyau, amma sun rasa ainihin ciniki. Tun daga wannan lokacin, waɗannan biyun sun sami babban cents 50. Wadancan ’yan kasuwar da suka yi hakuri sun ci riba mai yawa daga wannan dogon lokaci. Idan kun yi tsayin USD/JPY a wancan lokacin tare da kuri'a 10, kuna da kusan $500,000 a cikin asusunku.

Ba lallai ne ka riƙe matsayin gabaɗayan tafiyar ba. Ya kamata ku san cewa lokacin da CB ta ba da sanarwar wani muhimmin canji na manufofin kuɗi, kamar shirin QE, motsi na iya ɗaukar shekaru, kuma za ku iya saya akan kowane koma baya (kawai zaɓi hanyar da ta dace). Amma ciniki babban taron ba koyaushe bane mai sauƙi. Abin da ake kamawa anan shine tasirin dogon lokaci ko shugabanci na dogon lokaci bazai yi daidai da aikin CB ba.

A cikin makonni biyun da suka gabata, mun sami cikakkun misalai guda biyu na wannan. ECB ta ba da ragin ajiya na bps 10 kamar yadda muka ambata a sama da watanni shida na ƙarin QE. Yawanci, kuna tunanin cewa Yuro zai ragu. Ya fadi game da pips 100 bayan amsawar farko amma ya juya nan da nan kuma ya sami kusan pips 500 tun. Wannan saboda mahalarta kasuwar sun yi tsammanin fiye da haka kuma sun ji kunya.

Don haka, don babban taron, ya kamata ku kwatanta girman canjin manufofin kuɗi tare da tsammanin kasuwa. Idan tsammanin ya yi ƙasa da aikin da CB ta sanar, tasirin yana ƙaruwa kuma sakamakon sakamakon yana da girma. Irin wannan shine raguwar 35 cent a cikin EUR / USD daga sanarwar QE a watan Mayu 2015 ta ECB. Idan tsammanin ya fi girma fiye da canjin da aka sanar, babban ciniki yakan tafi a cikin kishiyar hanya fiye da aikin CB, irin su 500 pip riba a cikin EUR / USD wanda muka ambata a sama.

USD / JPY sun sami pips 200 a cikin 1st ranar sanarwar QE a cikin 2012 kuma yanayin ya ci gaba da samun wani 50 cents

Don haka, cinikin Babban Bankin yana da riba, amma ba koyaushe hanya ce mai sauƙi ba. Abubuwan tsammanin da halayen farko sun fi sauƙi don kasuwanci, amma har yanzu dole ne ku sami jagorancin daidai kuma ku aiwatar da kasuwancin da sauri. Babban ciniki yana da ɗan wahala; dole ne ku karanta canjin manufofin kuɗi daidai kuma ku kwatanta shi da tsammanin kasuwa. Wani lokaci kasuwa yana ɗaukar farashin a cikin hanya ɗaya kamar yadda tsarin kuɗi na CB ya canza kuma wani lokacin a cikin kishiyar shugabanci. A cikin labarin na gaba za mu yi bayanin yadda ake kasuwanci da maganganun CB.