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The Euro has shown itself to be impressively tenacious amidst an evident increasing risk of a dual recession. October PMI indices have already shown diverging sentiments in manufacturing and services, as well as among member countries. There is a slowdown or even contraction ahead, and tens of millions of people are returning to restrictions related to the coronavirus. The risks of a Brexit without a deal remain forever.
ECB politicians are clearly in the mood for additional stimulus, although Thursday’s upcoming meeting is not yet seen as the right time to do so. In the end, less than half of the money allocated to the pandemic emergency procurement program was spent. There will be no need for economic forecasts until December. By then, economists will finally be able to take into account the results of the US elections and the Brexit negotiations. So December is the best time to identify the incentives needed for the next year. Markets are currently awaiting the PEPP expansion to €1.35 trillion and a six-month extension until the end of next year.
The single currency did not greatly affect all events and expectations. Most impressively, despite the initial sell-off, it rebounded from recent lows against both the pound sterling and the Swiss franc. It looks like it will also continue its recent gains against the dollar. However, we would like to point out that some events are quite controversial, and we will probably need more time to sort out the perspectives.
Other Euro Pairs Suggest a Contradictory Outlook
To be precise, EUR/GBP is obviously in the 0.9291 correction zone. That is, although it is not possible to count out another plunge beneath 0.9007, downside risk might be minimal. Eventually, granting Euro and upper handle against Sterling, a breach through 0.9148 resistance to retest 0.9291 may emerge.
At the upper end of its latest range, around 1.1860, the EUR/USD pair sorted Coronavirus-related news from the EU which has been overlooked by optimistic consideration, although most countries have registered record numbers of new cases as health systems reveal their initial signs of depression.
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