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A report released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday shows the market speculators’ net long positioning on the US dollar (USD) jumped in August, while net shorts on the euro (EUR) increased too.
The report showed that the net longs on the greenback jumped to $13.37 billion in the second week of August ending August 16, up by 3.08% from the $12.97 billion recorded the week before. This would be the first time in four weeks that net longs on the dollar recorded an increase.
Meanwhile, the CFTC data also showed that euro shorts spiked to 42,784 contracts, its highest point since February 2020.
Dollar Boosted By Fed Hawkish Outlook
The US Federal Reserve policy meeting in July sparked a mixed reaction in the greenback, even though the Fed announced a 75 basis-point interest rate hike that month. The dollar weakened in late July as the financial markets waved off the Fed chair’s comments after the meeting as less hawkish than expected.
Fed chair Jerome Powell said at the time that with the perceived strength in employment, he did not see the US economy falling into a recession, adding that a recession was not necessarily needed to curb ballooning inflation. This weakened the dollar considerably.
However, the Fed meeting minutes released this week showed that the Fed planned on maintaining a hawkish stance and would increase interest rates in its upcoming September meeting and subsequent meetings but the pace of hikes will depend on available data. This report prompted a recovery in the dollar and has supported it all week.
Commenting on the prevailing market conditions, Raffi Boyadjian, lead investment analyst at XM, explained:
“Despite signs of a potential split emerging within the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) about how high rates should go and some visible cracks in the economy, a full-blown recession still seems some way off and policymakers’ resolve to contain inflation is indisputable.”
Boyadjian added: “This is why Treasury yields have been able to recover from their lows ploughed at the start of the month, giving the US dollar, which has been benefiting from renewed safety flows, an extra helping hand.”
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