New Pattern Suggests That Bitcoin Could Crumble To the $10,000 Level If Bulls Don’t ”Save the Day”

Updated:

Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the cryptocurrency market have been swept by intense volatility in today’s session, with the benchmark cryptocurrency plunging below the key $12k support.

This drop saw BTC drop as far as $11,600 before bulls stepped in to prevent further declines.

Many analysts believe that this sharp decline has disrupted Bitcoin’s price action in the near-term. A bearish divergence has now emerged on Bitcoin’s ‘Renko’ chart, confirming the fresh BTC weakness. Worth mentioning is that the last time this pattern emerged, the cryptocurrency fell by $1,300.

If history repeats itself, which it usually does, Bitcoin could see a further extension of this correction. One analyst points out that if the crypto failed to bounce off its current level, we could see $10k again.

BTC – Hourly Chart

Key Levels To Watch

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $11,770, roughly 1.6% down from its previous high.

As projected in our last analysis, the benchmark cryptocurrency dropped to $11,600 before finding a strong bounce from that area. After this, the crypto appeared to enter a consolidation range just like the one it was in before we broke the $12k mark.

Bulls are now tasked with reclaiming dominance above $12k again or risk handing over control to bears.

On the hourly chart, we can see that BTC needs to get back on top of the prevailing trendline and continue on that trajectory. Our MACD indicator shows that we are now heading into oversold conditions, making a bullish comeback more feasible.

If the $11,600 support caves, Bitcoin could head towards the $11,200-000 region fairly quickly. A further decline from that level should be strongly supported by the $10,800-500 pivot zone (colored in purple).

On the flip side, a good recovery from this level would send Bitcoin back into the $12,000’s and higher.

Total market capital: $365.6 billion

Bitcoin market capital: $217 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 59.4%

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

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The Greenback’s Comeback, the Second Wave of Coronavirus in Europe

Updated:

There was some demand for the greenback during trading hours in the US, which was later compounded by the minutes of the FOMC meeting. The initial growth lacked a specific catalyst. US policymakers reiterated that “very flexible monetary policy is likely to be needed for some time to come.” Besides, policymakers said that economic activity and employment have improved somewhat in recent months, nothing remains well below their pre-pandemic levels anyway and hinted against controlling the yield curve.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD retraced from annual highs, and although the fall was quite sharp, it still does not indicate a reversal in the dollar’s negative bias.

Talks between the UK and the EU about their future trade relationship appear to have stalled as the Union denied UK truck drivers wide access to Europe. Earlier in the day, a spokesman for the UK Prime Minister said British negotiators were hoping a trade deal could be reached next month.

However, issues of fishing rights and access to financial markets remain unresolved.
The Second Wave of Coronavirus in Europe
The number of new cases of coronavirus in Europe indicates that the second wave is reaching the Old Continent. Spain reported 3,715 new infections, France 3,776 new cases, and Germany 1,354. Italy lags with 642 and the UK with 812.

The OPEC + Joint Ministerial Monitoring Commission held a video conference. Participants believe that the pace of recovery in the oil market was slower than expected due to the growing risks of a protracted second wave of COVID-19. They also see the gap between supply and demand narrows. The headlines had little impact on crude oil prices.

Gold prices fell sharply due to sudden demand for the dollar, dropping to the $1940 price zone at the end of the American session.

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Gold Price Analysis — August 19

Updated:

Gold (XAU/USD) has found decent support around the $1,985-80 region in the early trading hours on Wednesday as it strives to regain dominance above the $2,000 resistance. Meanwhile, bulls remain unsettled over the upcoming minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, which could influence serious volatility in the market in the near-term.

In the meantime, the yellow metal continues to elicit support from the declining US Treasury bond yields, which is representative of the tension over the US fiscal stimulus, which could impede any significant economic recovery in the near-term.

Furthermore, the prevailing Sino-US trade tensions, especially after Saturday’s phase one deal review postponement by president Trump, remains a strong favorable factor underpinning the heavy demand for gold.

Moving on, the FOMC minutes will be a major determinant for the next directional movement for the commodity. Market participants will be looking for any clues on the yield curve control and long-term economic projections for trading opportunities in the near-term.

XAUUSD – Hourly Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — August 19

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: $1,995, $2,000, and $2,015

Demand Levels: $1,980, $1,960, and $1,939

Gold is currently holding up well above the $1,985 support and it seeks to reclaim $2,000. A break below that support will be met with the 200 simple moving average at $1,980 which is also a strong pivot region. A break below the pivot region ($1,983 – $1,960) could send gold speeding towards the $1,939 support again.

However, if gold can find its footing above $1990, we could see the $2,000 mark once again and further tops.

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Bitcoin Suffers Modest Decline After It Enters Overbought Territories

Updated:

Bitcoin’s (BTC) sensational bull rally has just hit a major obstacle after it failed to claim the $12,400 resistance. Prior expectations for a parabolic continuation has now been put aside as bulls recover from the brutal decline.

The cryptocurrency market has shed about $13 billion from yesterday’s peak of $387 billion over the past 24 hours.

Although it’s still largely unknown what triggered the sharp reversal, many traders believe that it was as a result of BTC venturing into overbought territory. This technical factor likely activated massive sell-offs in some trading bots, which as a result caused the decline.

BTC – Hourly Chart

Key Levels to Watch

According to our hourly chart, we can see that the price has dropped back into our previous channel. We are now back in the range of the strong $12K psychological line.

Meanwhile, BTC is now approaching a cross-section between the $12,100 resistance and the top of our ascending channel around the same level. Bitcoin will have to break this cross-section resistance to regain its bullish momentum. A break and close above this level could send the price back to the $12,400 level.

After that, Bitcoin will be faced with the $12,800 and $13K resistance level.

On the flip side, immediate support can be found at the 200 moving average ($11,801) which has been a strong ‘floor’ for BTC since last week. A break beneath that line could extend this correction to the $11,650 support and beyond.

In retrospect, it can be observed that Bitcoin always regains its footing shortly after a major sell-off. This is because whales are always lurking around to buy back into selling pressure after ‘weak hands’ panic and sell their positions. That said, we are likely to see this play out once again in the near-term.

Total market capital: $378 billion

Bitcoin market capital: $222.9 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 58.7%

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Technology Stocks and Gold Drive the Recovery As Dollar Extends Losses

Updated:

It seems that after a short recharge, the markets have returned to the trends of recent months: outstripping growth in technology stocks, strengthening gold, and a falling dollar.

The Nasdaq100 index hit its all-time highs to 11,300, up nearly 30% YTD and 70% from March bottom. At the same time, the S & P500 continues to cautiously approach historic highs. The correction, which outstripped the growth of stocks, was short-lived. The Dow lost 0.3% overnight and is again lagging behind the Nasdaq and the S & P500, reversing last week’s trend.

This is a sign of the times not only for the United States. China is experiencing an IPO boom for IT. Liberalization of access to the domestic market, coupled with looser monetary policy and potential difficulties with an IPO in the US, attracts investors to the Chinese market.
Gold Rebounds As Dollar Extend Losses
Selling gold earlier this month sparked the interest of buyers who were expecting a correction to enter the market. As a result, the price again approaches $ 2,000. Silver won back a 70% retracement at the start of the month.

The common denominator for gains in stocks and metals is a weakening dollar. Its steady decline is forcing investors to seek refuge for their capital from depreciation in real terms.

The most significant growth impulses are observed in the least liquid markets with fewer sellers.

However, it is difficult to be on the side of the bulls, given macroeconomic factors. Market growth due to the cheapness of money, and not high domestic demand, will sooner or later suffocate.

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Nasdaq 100 Could Be Seeing Significant Slowdown In Volatility as the Summer Rolls In

Updated:

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) climbed higher on Monday with the Dow Jones (DJIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) not far behind. The three major US indices have all recorded outstanding rallies in the past few weeks, however, it appears as though the momentum is starting to slow down as the impending market risk tone might diminish trading activities. This means that the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and the S&P 500 are expected to see a stall or modest decline in their prices in the near-term.

Usually, the markets are very calm in August and other months in the summer. While the start of the season was largely dominated by the Coronavirus crisis-induced volatility, recent price actions indicate that longer-term trends have re-emerged as the markets have been fairly quiet in August—except for last Tuesday. Furthermore, the upcoming FOMC minutes report might suppress any significant price movement this week.

There are certain factors in the market today responsible for the slowdown in price action. However, this is not to say that the fundamental factors that influenced strong market runs in the past have suddenly ‘disappeared.’ Regardless the charts still show that the bull trend is still intact.

NDX – Hourly Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — August 18

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 11307, 11400, and 11500.

Demand Levels: 11150, 11068, and 10895.

The NDX continues to struggle with the 11307 resistance despite favorable market conditions. Regardless, we expect to see a clean break above that line and new record highs in the near-term. A break above that level could quickly send NDX to 11400 before any correction will be seen.

On the flip side, a fall from this level would be strongly supported around the 11068 area. A sustained fall below this level appears unlikely at this point.

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Bitcoin Snaps the $12K Resistance, Aims Higher

Updated:

Before now, Bitcoin has been idling under the $11,900 mark, despite the fresh influx of $6 billion into the global crypto space in the past few days.

In the past few hours, however, a sharp boost in buying pressure surfaced, which took Bitcoin to the long-awaited $12k since August 11. This was a level that subdued BTC buyers twice in the last 48hours. Bulls were able to drive the price as high as $12,465, a new 2020 high.

BTC – Hourly Chart

Key Levels To Watch

As projected in yesterday’s analysis, Bitcoin has resurfaced strongly above the $12k level. The next targets to the upside are the $12,500, $12,700, and subsequently, the $13k psychological line.

At press time, BTC is trading at $12,380 and a fall from this level will be immediately supported by the strong resistance-turned-support level at $12k. This fall could come as a result of the overbought conditions the benchmark cryptocurrency is venturing into on our hourly chart.

That said, Bitcoin bulls might try to close above $12,500 to cement the bullish rally above $12k.

Also, Bitcoin’s price action today coincided again with a similar surge from gold. The yellow metal has been showing a strong correlation with BTC for a while now, as it gained about $50 in its surge today.

Total market capital: $386.8 billion

Bitcoin market capital: $227.7 billion

Bitcoin market dominance: 58.8%

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Dollar Stays Depressed As Gold Restarts Its Progression

Updated:

The dollar fell against all of its major rivals amid concerns over the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. Even though according to the latest data, the country has registered about 35,000 cases of infection, the country has recorded more than 5.4 million cases of infection, and the death toll has exceeded 170,000.

However, in August, the country cut back on the number of tests, which somewhat overshadows the encouraging headline.

Concerns about US-China relations have affected investor sentiment. Talks scheduled for Saturday have been postponed without a new date. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said China is buying large quantities of US agricultural products ahead of the review of the first phase of the trade deal. However, the US Department of Commerce also announced that it has added 38 Huawei businesses to the US economic blacklist, rekindling fears of further escalation in Beijing-Washington relations.

US manufacturing business conditions in the Empire State fell sharply to 3.7 in August from 17.2, well below the 16.5 forecasts.

Looking closely at the details, new orders fell -15.6 points and turned negative to -1.7. Shipments fell from -11.8 to 6.7. The number of employees increased by 2.0 pts. up to 2.4. But the average workweek with employment fell from -4.2 to -6.8.

Six months ahead, the general business conditions fell from -4.1 to 34.3. New orders fell from -4.7 to 37.2. The number of employees fell from -5.6 to 155. The average workweek fell from -1.9 to 2.0. Capital expenditures decreased from -3.1 to 6.0.

Brexit talks will resume on Tuesday with caution in the GBP/USD pair. The main issues are related to fishing rights and the access of the UK financial sector to Union markets.
Gold Restarts Its Progression on Risk Aversion
Gold prices rose sharply at the beginning of the American session, with the price of the bright metal reaching $1990.73 per troy ounce.

It settled at around $1980.00. Crude oil prices rose within the range, WTI closed at $43 per barrel.

US stock markets closed mixed, while the NASDAQ index showed growth. European indices showed moderate gains throughout the day. The yield on US Treasuries declined, reflecting an increase in demand for safe assets.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its last meeting, the single most significant macroeconomic event of the day.

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Gold Regains Bullish Sentiment As the Dollar Continues to Slump

Updated:

The US dollar (DXY) experienced a sharp decline in the early North American session which boosted gold (XAU/USD) prices to the $1,991 level. The yellow metal grew by about $50 from its daily low, recording a daily high of $1,991 (its highest point since August 11) before retreating to $1,980 where it currently is.

Gold has now pared more than half of the losses it suffered in last week’s collapse, which saw the commodity drop from $2,030 to $1,860. The precious metal rebounded in the American session on the back of a subdued USD coupled with strong technical support.

Meanwhile, analysts at Citibank have forecasted that gold will likely reach $2,100 within the next three months and $2,300 in six to twelve months. They cite the outstanding pace of ETF investor inflows (which weakens the dollar) and negative real yields as the major proponents for gold’s rally.

XAUUSD – Hourly Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — August 17

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: $1,990, $2,000, and $2,015

Demand Levels: $1,950, $1,930, and $1,900

As projected in this morning’s analysis, gold has broken into a bull-run and has snapped the $1,960 resistance, climbing over the top of the $1983 resistance (the top line of our consolidation range) and has now returned into the region. We expect to see further gains in the near-term as our MACD is now just slightly above its neutral point. However, a slight retrace to the $1,960 could be seen before the surge occurs.

That said, the $2,015 resistance is now our next target to look out for.

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Gold Price Analysis for August 17

Updated:

Gold (XAU/USD) has recovered from an early dip to the $1,930 region, recording a $1,957 high in the early Asian session on Monday. However, it has failed to show any significant follow-through momentum.

The yellow metal has also failed to take full advantage of last week’s impressive bounce from a three-week low ($1,862) and has been in a consolidation range for a few trading sessions since then. The prevailing US dollar weakness was regarded as the major factor bolstering the dollar-denominated commodity.

The tensions surrounding the next round of fiscal stimulus measures in the US kept USD buyers in a defensive stance through the early trading hours on Monday. This coupled with the weak bias around the US Treasury bond yields extended extra support to the non-yielding metal.

However, the overall goodish risk sentiment in the global market has kept a lid on any further gains in gold. The global risk-on mood was bolstered by the hopes over a potential Coronavirus vaccine and the rescheduling of the US-China trade deal review, originally slated for Saturday.

Meanwhile, investors appear to be playing it safe with gold and are staying on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes release, scheduled for Wednesday. That said, volatility will likely be diminished in the near-term.

XAUUSD – Hourly Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — August 17

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1,960, $1,983, and $2,000

Demand Levels: $1,930, $1,916, and $1,900

Gold has resumed Monday with its consolidation from last week, trading between the $1,961 and $1,931 levels. Giving the poor condition of the dollar, gold will likely stage a recovery to the upside soon. Also, a mini trendline can be seen on the hourly chart, confirming that while we’re in a consolidation, the trend remains to the upside.

Meanwhile, our MACD indicator shows that gold is in neutral conditions, making it adequate for a bullish trend to play out.

Note: Learn2.Trade is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

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