AUDUSD Trades Below Technical Key Levels While Stuck Within a Tight Range

AUDUSD Price Analysis – November 21

Over the past 24 hours, the Australian dollar has depreciated by approximately 44 basis points versus the US dollar. The currency pair crossed the lower horizontal zone on the level at 0.6810 during yesterday’s trading session.

Key Levels

Resistance Levels: 0.7205, 0.7085, 0.6929
Support Levels: 0.6769, 0.6710, 0.6670

AUDUSD Long term Trend: Bearish

Overall, with an intact resistance of the level at 0.7085, the reversal of the trend is not yet clearly confirmed. That is, the downward trend since the level at 0.7205 (High) is expected to continue to the level at 0.6670 (low).

However, a breakout of the level at 0.7085 may confirm the trough in the medium term and bring the rebound back to the horizontal resistance zone now on the level at 0.7205. The FX pairs’ outlook stays bearish, displaying an intact downtrend in the medium and long-term.

AUDUSD Short term Trend: Ranging

Intraday bias in AUDUSD stays neutral as consolidation from the level at 0.6769 temporarily low is extending. The outlook has not changed and the rebound of the level at 0.6670 should have been completed on the level at 0.6929.

The positive side of the recovery may be contained by the level at 0.6841 less resistance to bring another decline. On the negative side, the level at 0.6769 breaks may resume the fall to retest the level at 0.6670 low. However, the break of the level at 0.6841 may alter the bias to advance again for the resistance of the level at 0.6929.

Instrument: AUDUSD
Order: Sell
Entry price: 0.6810
Stop: 0.6895
Target: 0.6710

Note: Learn2Trade.com is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

AUD, NZD Hit Recovery After Chinese Top Official Expresses Optimism Amidst Caution in Ongoing Trade Talks

There have been so many speculations about the ongoing trade talks between the United States and China. The worries heightened when the US passed a bill to support human rights in Hong Kong while also passing a second bill to stop the export of certain ammunitions to the Hong Kong police. This move didn’t go down well with China who issued a warning to the US to steer clear of its affairs.

Bearish sentiments took hold of the market when reports filtered in that the trade talks between the two macro economies have reached a stalemate. This was deduced from President Trump’s refusal to remove certain tariffs on Chinese goods while also threatening increased tariffs in case of a failed pact. The quantity of United States agricultural produce bought by china has also sparked up concerns.

Investors were neither sure of when the preliminary deal may be signed; reports gathered from inside sources at the white house said it might be moved to next year because China needed some reassurance on tariffs removal. A publication however quoting sources close to the white house reported that the trade talks have reached a deadlock.

Hopes were lighted again when in a Bloomberg interview, Chinese Vice Premier expressed optimism amidst caution as regards the ongoing trade talks between the two countries. He, however, added that certain ambiguities masked United States’ demands.

In the news wake, Australian and New Zealand dollar versus USD pairs started to hit recovery. At the time of this report, AUD versus USD stood at 0. 6798, recovered from a low price of 0 .6786 to stand at -0.05%. NZD versus USD traded at 0 .6413 edging higher from a low price of 0.6397 while standing at-0.07%.

On Wednesday, bearish sentiments had taken a hold of the AUD, NZD/USD pairs over the trade talks gridlock. The trend continued early Thursday and paused as both pairs held steady when the tensions about the trade deal seemed to douse for the moment.

Trading Currecies

Market Analysis
The recent market situation as could be seen from the Japanese Yen and gold price in the early hours of today shows that heightened concerns over gridlock in the trade talks may have been unnecessary.

The slight bounce experienced by the AUD, NZD versus USD pairs also corroborates that the heightened concerns may have come too early.

Again the veracity of the reports which came in about the gridlock in the trade deal is questionable as the sources remained anonymous. A Shanghai trader said such reports are distractions while referring to the fact that the trade talks terms remain the same. He also made mention of the air of uncertainty hovering in the market causing a drag in trading.

GBPJPY Is Moving Towards a Sideways Trend for the Umpteenth Time

GBPJPY Price Analysis -November 20

During the last one month, the GBPJPY’s price has traded on the upside between the horizontal level at 141.50 and the level at 138.88 while testing the top and the bottom of the formed channel in a sideways trend. However, in today’s trading session, the FX pair has broken below Tuesdays low.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 148.66, 146.57, 141.50
Support Levels: 138.88, 135.49, 126.54

GBPJPY Long term Trend: Bullish

By and large, the GBPJPY pair may most likely continue to edge lower within this session. The potential target will be near term targets on the level at 138.88. In the longer term, the consolidation structure from the level at 126.54 (low) is still in progress.

A further advance may be seen back to the level at 146.57/148.66 resistance zone. And currently, there is an anticipation of a solid resistance from there to contain its advance. While this may stay intact as the likely scenario as long as the level at 135.49 resistance turned support remains.

GBPJPY Short term Trend: Ranging

In spite of a strong opening, the market may close below the prior day’s open and close, forming a bearish pattern. Meanwhile, the intraday bias in GBPJPY stays neutral and further advance is possible with the level at 139.36 near term support intact.

The firm break of the level at 141.50 may further the advance from the level at 136.44 and target horizontal zone resistance (now at 146.57). However, a break of the level at 139.36 may shift bias to the downside for a further retracement to the level at 135.49 resistance turned support.

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Buy
Entry price: 139.36
Stop: 136.44
Target: 146.57

Geopolitics Advance Gold’s Upward Movement

Previously in the news, it was recalled that US-China top officials had a video conferencing call in which observers termed as a constructive one. Many saw this as a dim light in a tunnel although the final say depended on president trump.

Investors entered the week been hopeful even though US threat on slapping more tariffs on Chinese goods in case of a failed pact stands.

On Tuesday, in a twist of events, President Trump reiterated that the United States’ stance on increasing tariffs on Chinese goods in the event of a failed pact still holds steady thereby dousing the hopes hitherto lit by previous reports.

The trade war which had spanned for 16 months created fears of a global recession; therefore the President’s threat might stall the progress of the trade talks. Analysts also predict that the recent bill passed by the US Congress in support of the protest in Hong Kong might also be a stumbling block to the progress made so far.

Apart from the bill passed to support human rights in Hong Kong, the U.S. Congress also passed another bill to stop the export of some ammunition to Hong Kong police. This didn’t augur well with China who taunted the US to stop being a watchdog.

Gold Trends Higher
Spot gold edged higher to $1,473.98 per ounce early this morning with a market gain of 0.1% while U.S. gold futures held steady at $1,474.40 per ounce.

Gold is yet to consolidate its gains given the awaited minutes from Federal Reserve which is due out later on today. There are speculations that the Fed’s decision of holding steady its interest rate cut might undermine the precious metal.

The Federal Reserve had embarked on a three-time interest rate cutting this year while its decision to hold steady was applauded by a top Federal Reserve official to be supportive of the US economy.

On the Asian side, the share market took a downturn from reports on the trade talks while the reverse was seen in the global equities market.

Though Gold had taken a downtrend in the equities market, it remains supported by the geopolitical stance.

A top analyst forecasted that Spot gold may climb up to $1,480 even reaching $1,485 per ounce.

Other precious metals such as silver held steady at $17.14 per ounce, while palladium stood at -0.1% to $1,760.80 per ounce.
Platinum also stands at – 0.6% to $904.52 per ounce.

Recovering from Bearish Pressure USDCHF Rebound to Test Key Level

USDCHF Price Analysis – November 19

The FX pair moved past the moving average 5 and 13 while breaking the horizontal zone on the key level at 0.9911 early during the European session, but could not sustain the momentum. As at the time of composing, USDCHF dived again below the key level at 0.9911. The bias becomes weaker at the break, but traders may pay attention to the missed break.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.0231, 1.0027, 0.9995
Support Levels: 0.9851, 0.9798, 0.9659

USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging

USDCHF exited Monday on the level at 0.9896, down slightly by 2 pips (-0.02%). In today’s trading, while trending up to 23 pips after the opening, the FX pair managed to reverse yesterday’s low during the session as the bulls took control and may end the day above its opening price.

In the longterm, its outlook stays bullish but the USDCHF is also staying in the range of the level at 0.9659/1.0231. Meanwhile, a decisive break of the level at 1.0231 is required to confirm the uptrend resumption.

USDCHF Short term Trend: Ranging

The FX pair displays short-term strength, supported by its long-term uptrend, with the medium-term trend being bearish only. Although new fresh selling may lower price if the market tested the lowest mark in October on the level at 0.9841.

Intraday bias in USDCHF stays neutral at this stage. Consolidation from the level at 1.0027 may extend to the level at 0.9851. In this scenario, a further plunge may be observed towards the level at 0.9659 low. On the upside, the breakout of the level at 0.9978 will target the level at 1.0027 first.

Instrument: USDCHF
Order: Sell
Entry price: 0.9911
Stop: 0.9978
Target: 0.9851

Note: Learn2Trade.com is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

 

Euro Rises Ahead of Optimism in Trade Talks

In the news this week is the report filtering in about the progress made in US-China trade talks over the weekend. Reports indicate a video conferencing between top US trade officials and a Chinese top government official over the weekend. Though the details of the conference call are yet to be finalized, this has sparked up hopes in investors propping up the Euro, undermining the safe havens.

At the time of this report, the euro edged higher than 1.1072 versus the USD while consolidating its gains. The trade war which had lasted close to 16 months had both countries slapping tariffs on their respective goods. Reports, however, came in a few weeks ago that both countries were nearing a preliminary phase agreement. The progress seemed to be made in the trade talks was stalled as US President revealed it wasn’t removing some punitive tariffs. Investors were unsure of when the preliminary deal will be signed as China needed a bit of reassurance.

On Friday, the US commerce secretary made optimistic remarks while over the weekend, reports came in of a constructive talk between US-China top officials. Though the final decision by the US president, Donald Trump is yet to be heard, investors eagerly await the President’s tweet later in the day.

One question for sure on the mind of investors is if the President is willing to remove the extra tariffs? Also because of the December 15 deadline posed by the US for the preliminary phase agreement to be reached, in which Trump had threatened increased tariffs if it fails is an item to consider in which it seems that the United States stance still holds steady.

Also in the market highlights for this week is central bank activity.

Central Bank Activity
A top official of the Federal Reserve has reiterated that the Fed’s decision to hold steady its interest rate cut after embarking on a three-time cut this year is supportive of the US economy. Later on this week, minutes of a follow-up meeting to explain the Fed’s monetary stance will be released.

Also this week, speeches from ECB top officials are on. Those to influence the market will most likely be Luis de Guindos who is currently serving as the Vice president and Phillip lane who is the Chief economist. Most likely the subject of discussion will be a clarion call to the governing bodies to cover more grounds.

In the news last week, Germany barely escaped a recession, therefore it is expected that fiscal decisions may hold steady in light of this.

EURUSD Is Dominated by Bull Market Throughout as the Pair Seeks to Recover

EURUSD Price Analysis – November 18

The bulls had full control today, moving the market up during the entire European session as the FX pair confirmed its breakout past the high of the prior session after trading up to 1.1068 above during the day.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 1.1501, 1.1412, 1.1278
Support Levels: 1.0989, 1.0879, 1.0780


EURUSD Long term Trend: Bearish

EURUSD at the moment, the rebound from the 1.0879 level is initially seen as a remedy and, in the case of a further increase, the increase may be contained by the level at 1.1412 retracements from the level at 1.0879.

Although the downward trend from the 1.1501 (high) level may resume later. However, the sustained plunge from the 1.1412 level may change this bearish position and lead to a greater increase in the retracement to the level at 1.1501.


EURUSD Short term Trend: Ranging

The EURUSD intraday bias stays neutral for the initial position and a further plunge is anticipated as long as the resistance remains at the level at 1.1073. Also, the corrective rebound from the level at 1.0879 is expected to end at 1.1501.

Meanwhile, past the low of the level at 1.0989, the bias will be revised downward to repeat the low of the level at 1.0879. However, the breakout of the level at 1.1073 may soften this bearish trend and push up the bias for the level at 1.1175.

Instrument: EURUSD
Order: Buy
Entry price: 1.1073
Stop: 1.0989
Target: 1.1412

Note: Learn2Trade.com is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

GBPUSD Trend: Cable Advance on Brexit Fundamentals While Targeting Key Resistance

GBPUSD Price Analysis – November 17

Cable advanced past the level at 1.29 handle on the lower dollar after economic release for the U.S and the recent Brexit Party news gave a boost to the pair while holding firmly over the moving average 5 and 13.

Key Levels

Resistance Levels: 1.3301, 1.3185, 1.3012

Support levels: 1.2582, 1.2195, 1.1958

GBPUSD Long term Trend: Bullish

In the long term trend, a near term bottom is structured on the level at 1.1958, and at present, the advance from the level at 1.1958 may be observed as that of consolidation from the low.

However, a further advance may then be reactivated to the level at 1.3301 resistance. Meanwhile, for now, this scenario may stay intact for as long as the level at 1.2582 resistance turned support remains solid. Hence the firm break of the level at 1.2582 may shift attention to the low.

GBPUSD Short term Trend: Ranging

On the flip side of the 4-hour time frame, the GBPUSD’s consolidation from the level at 1.3012 extended throughout prior trading sessions and the trend stays unaltered. The initial bias stays neutral first. Although such consolidation may likely continue with another plunge before its concluded.

As a result of this scenario, the downside zone may be limited above the level at 1.2582 resistance turned support to reactivate the resumption of further advance. Also for the upside zone, a break of the level at 1.3012 may activate the advance from the level at 1.1958 to 1.3301 resistance.

Note: Learn2Trade.com is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results

A Bullish Trend on the Yen as Uncertainties Mask Trade Talks, NZD Up, AUD Down

The trade war which had lingered for over 16 months between the US and China had spurred up a little glimpse of positivity in the past weeks when reports filtered in that both countries were about removing the tariffs slapped on their respective goods.

In this light, it seemed as if investors had gotten at ease in taking the risk, thereby undermining the safe-haven currencies, Japanese Yen and Swiss dollar.

For more than five weeks, the positivity loomed around the US dollar and it rose up against a basket of currencies.

Events took a turn when the US revealed that it wasn’t removing certain tariffs, thereby spurring up uncertainty as investors weren’t sure when the preliminary phase deal will be signed.

Investors Seek Solace in Safe-Haven Currencies
Investors were therefore prompted to take solace in safe-haven currency, Japanese yen as it rose up as against the previous week of 108.785 versus the dollar.

The yen also seemed to have been propped up by the unrest in Hongkong and also unfavorable economic stats from the Eurozone and China.

Last week, economic stats released saw China record a lower industrial production, lower GDP figures for Japan and Germany while Australia’s employment figures slipped by close to 19,000 as against an increase forecasted, being the largest drop recorded since 2016. Bearish sentiments also forced the Australian government bond yield spanning over ten years to record a week low.

Aussie closed the previous week down at 0 .6821 versus the dollar, standing at a negative of 0.56%. The speculation that the reserve bank of Australia might embark on an interest rate reduction due to the employment stats also undermined the AUD.

On the other end, NZD experienced a bounce as the reserve bank of new Zealand held steady its interest rate at a percent. Analysts had forecasted a reduction in the OCR (official cash rate).

The NZD closed the previous week at 0.6402 versus the dollar with a market gain of 1.19%. RBNZ’s stance came as a surprise to investors as the apex bank now presented an attractive growth outlook. Speculations are high for a likely interest rate cut in February or May. The RBNZ also mentioned that it may pump more liquidity into the economy if necessary.

Chinese Yuan Emerges Top Five in Fed’s Broad Index

A top finance analyst has observed that in the Fed’s broad index chart, the Chinese Yuan has consistently maintained its growth in the last decade to emerge amongst the top five with the largest trade weight. It had even outrun the Canadian currency to clinch the 2nd most traded currency in the United States after the Euro.

The U.S. dollar trade-weighted index, also known as the broad-based index, is a comparative measure of the value of the U.S. dollar against currencies in other countries. This is an index that is improving relative to the previous U.S. dollar index by using more currencies and weights are updated every year

The broad index chart which has the total trade weights of each country or region from 2006 to date had the Chinese Yuan record a total trade weight of 12.386 in 2006 while in 2019, it recorded a figure of 16.172, the biggest after European Union’s value of 18.617. Mexican currency clinched third with a value of 13.287. Japan and countries in the Eurozone had a downtrend.

The analyst sees this as a move by China to increase worldwide acceptance of the Yuan thus making it a global currency. He sees this move as sharpening and setting new trends in the foreign exchange markets. China strictly regulates the use of the Yuan in its territory, being overseen by the PBoC. The currency is also being traded in Hong Kong’s offshore market. However, due to trade disputes between the U.S. and China, it fell in respect to the USD.

Analysts trace this to unfavorable economic stats which may be due to China’s struggle to balance the impact of the tariffs being slapped on its goods by the U.S.

Yuan’s Market Trend
In August this year, The Yuan been paired against the USD stood at greater than 7.00 recording a market gain of 0.08%. This high was maintained until it was breached by the unrest caused by the trade dispute.

The Yuan had a slight bounce to recover up to 7.00 this November, though going less than the mark. Yuan currently stands at 7.0208 versus the dollar.

The air of uncertainty hovering around the Yuan has made it of more significance in the market while investors remain unsure of PBoC’s latest moves. Given the trade wars, the market’s orientation is shifting from Euro to Yuan. There is a bullish trend between the placing of both the dollar/ euro against the Yuan recording a market gain of 0.054%, evidence that supports the impact of Yuan’s influence on both currencies.