Japan 225 (JP225USD) Resumes a Downward Move, May Reach Level 21400

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

Key Resistance Zones: 23200, 23600, 24000
Key Support Zones: 20800, 20400, 20000

Japan 225 (JP225USD) Long-term Trend: Ranging
Japan 225 is range-bound between levels 22000 and 23000. The price has broken level 22000 and the downward move is likely to continue. On the downside, if the price breaks the support line and closes below it, the selling pressure will continue.

JP225USD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
Japan 225 has fallen to level 41 of the Relative Strength Index. The index is in a downtrend zone and it is presently falling. The 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA are sloping sideways indicating the sideways trend.

Japan 225 (JP225USD) Medium-term Trend: Bearish
On the 4- hour chart, the index is in a downward move. A green candle body tested the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. It indicates that the index will fall and reach the low of level 2.618 Fibonacci extension level. Nonetheless, the first target will be at  level 1.618 extension level. The second target will be at level 2.618 extension level or level 21400.

JP225USD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
Japan 225 is below 20 % range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the market has reached the oversold region of the market. This indicates that the price is in bearish momentum. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping southward.

General Outlook for Japan 225 (JP225USD)
Japan 225 index is falling after a sideways move for the past two months. The market is falling and expected to reach the low of level 21400.


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Canadian Economy Grows 4.5% in May vs. 3.5% Anticipated

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

Friday’s economic report highlights the release of Canada’s monthly GDP growth data for May, released by Statistics Canada at 12:30 GMT. After a sharp 11.6% contraction in the previous month, the report is expected to show that the Canadian economy grew 3.5% for the reporting month.

However, following the release, Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.5% month-on-month in May, data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed. This reading follows the April 11.7% contraction (revised from 11.6%) and came out slightly better than the market expected for a 3.5% gain.

USD/CAD was seen consolidating the previous day’s positive move by more than 100 pips from 1.3330 regions, or seven-week lows. Given that the recent price action has been driven solely by US dollar price movements, this data is unlikely to turn things around for major events, although it could still bring meaningful trading opportunities in the short term.

“In May, provinces, and territories began to open up sectors of their economies to varying degrees,” a press release from Statistics Canada said. “Although gains in May offset some of the downturns in March and April, economic activity remained 15% below pre-pandemic levels in February.”

Market Impact Data Published
This data does not have a significant impact on CAD performance when compared to competitors. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD pair is virtually unchanged over the day at 1.3424. With crude oil prices rising moderately and stronger than expected, the rebound may be enough to support modest gains in the commodity-linked currency, the CAD.

However, some subsequent buying outside of the overnight swing high, around 1.3460, should help the pair recover the key 1.3500 psychological levels. On the other hand, weakening below 1.3400, leading to a subsequent breakout of the horizontal support at 1.3385-80, could leave the pair vulnerable to a decline to multi-week lows around 1.3330.

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EURJPY Push Beyond 124.00 Level Towards 2020 High Near 124.50 Range

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

EURJPY Price Analysis – July 31

The recovery of EURJPY fell again short of the 2020 highs, running out of steam earlier in the session in the 124.31 regions. Despite the continuing corrective downside, the extra upside momentum stays intact on the cards and is predicted to retake the 2020 highs close to 124.50 range in the short-term horizon.

Key levels
Resistance Levels: 128.67, 125.49, 124.43
Support Levels: 123.37, 121.96, 119.31
EURJPY Long term Trend: Bullish
EURJPY is consolidating beyond level 122.87 and last month’s top stays high at level 124.43. The bullish view is anticipated to stay consistent as long as EURJPY trades beyond the moving average of 13 at level 123.37.

In the wider sense, the entire downtrend from level 137.49 (high) should have already been accomplished at level 114.42. Increasing from a level of 114.42 may aim a 61.8 percent retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 levels next at 128.67 level. There may be a continuous split that sets the stage to level 137.59 (high).
EURJPY Short term Trend: Bullish
As for the short-term session today, bullish traders may keep driving the exchange rate higher. The possible goal at 124.80 level is now close to 4 hours of timeframe resistance. Intraday bias in EURJPY stays initially neutral and is predicted to increase higher.

On the positive, a steady 124.43 level breach may restart the increase from 114.42 level to 61.8 percent projection from 119.31 level to 125.49 level projection. That being said, on the downside, a breach of 121.96 level then transforms bias to the downside for support level 119.31.

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Gold to End the Week With a Bang

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

Gold (XAU/USD) jumped to a fresh all-time high, around the $1,984 level in the early European session, before retreating lower.

Following yesterday’s profit-taking-triggered slide to the $1,940 area, the yellow metal was quick to bounce back and is set to end the week in a grand style. The bull run marked the tenth consecutive bullish session in the past eleven days and was mainly bolstered by the dominant bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar.

Worries over the dwindling prospects for an economic recovery amid the Coronavirus saga continued to exert strong bearish pressure on the USD. This worry was reignited following the release of the US Q2 GDP report yesterday, which indicated that the economy contracted by a record 32.9% annualized pace. This coupled with the political tussle over the next round of stimulus measures further weakened the USD and bolstered the dollar-denominated commodity.

This comes on the heels of the dovish FOMC comments earlier this week coupled with the prevailing drop in the US Treasury bond yields, which further strengthened gold’s bullishness.

Moving on, market participants will be looking at the US economic docket—which features the Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income/Spending data, Chicago PMI, and Revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment—for clues to trading opportunities today.

XAUUSD – Hourly Chart

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — July 31

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: $1,983, $1,990, and $2,000

Demand Levels: $1,970, $1,960, and $1,940

Gold has been progressing with our projections so far and is nearing the $2,000 target more and more. Immediate support can be found at the $1,970 level, however, further retrace will be strongly supported by the $1960 region, which happens to be a confluence of a support line and our ascending trendline.

At this level, gold needs a bounce from one of these support lines to send it once again on its journey to the $2,000 level, but first, we need to clear the $1,983 resistance.

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USDCHF Plunge to Attempt a Psychological Low Level at 0.90

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

USDCHF Price Analysis – July 31

During the early European session, the USDCHF pair witnessed some selling and plummeted towards psychologically low at 0.90- the lowest level since May 2015. Furthermore, the safe-haven CHF earned from a selloff in US stock markets.

Key Levels
Resistance Levels: 0.9902, 0.9467, 0.9181
Support Levels: 0.9047, 0.9000, 0.8969
USDCHF Long term Trend: Bearish
USDCHF is trying to broaden its push beneath the key lows of 2018 and March 2020 to 0.9000 level, further supporting the view that presently we may see a weekly closing underneath this important inflection level.

A close beneath the May 2015 low at 0.9072 level might just see support at 0.9047 level, ahead of the 0.9000 level psychological barrier, where we may see an initial attempt to hold. In the positive, the first sign of medium-term bottoming would be a breach of 0.9362 resistance level.
USDCHF Short term Trend: Bearish
The decline of USDCHF is so far worsening to a level of 0.9056. The forecast level of 0.9081 over the medium term is already reached but there is no indication of bottoming yet. On the downside, the intraday bias continues.

The next near-term goal will be a forecast of 161.8 percent from 0.9467 to 0.9370 levels at 0.8969 levels. On the upside, a lower resistance level beyond 0.9151 may transform neutral the intraday bias and first offer stabilization, before another downside is triggered.

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Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP) Consolidates in a Tight Range between Levels 3200 and 3400

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

Key Resistance Zones: 3300, 3400, 3500
Key Support Zones: 2800, 2700, 2600

Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP) Long-term Trend: Ranging
SHCOMP is fluctuating between levels 3200 and 3400 after its resistance at level 3400. The index tested the level 3400 twice and fell to level 3200 and resumed a sideways move. In its sideways move, the index has tested level 3200 twice, while it tested level 3400 thrice. The index is not trending but trading in the middle of the price range.

SHCOMP- Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
SHCOMP is at level 53 of the Relative Strength Index. It is in an uptrend zone and it is above the centerline 50. The 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA are sloping sideways indicating the sideways trend.

Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP) Medium-term Trend: Ranging
On the 4- hour chart, the index is a sideways move. After its downward move to level 3200 on July 17, the index has been on a sideways move between levels 3200 and 3400. It is trading in the middle of price range. The index will trend if this levels are broken.

SHCOMP – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading:
SHCOMP is above 40 % range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the market is in a bullish momentum. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping sideways indicating the sideways trend.


General Outlook for Shanghai SE Composite Index (SHCOMP)
SHCOMP index is still consolidating between levels 3200 and 3400 since July 17.The downtrend will resume if price breaks below level 3200. In the meantime, price is fluctuating upward to retest level 3400.



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USD/JPY Is in an Oversold Region, Buyers are Likely to Emerge

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

Key Resistance Levels: 111.00, 112.00, 113.00
Key Support Levels: 104.00, 103.00, 102.00

USD/JPY Price Long-term Trend: Bearish
USD/JPY is in a downward move. The price has broken below level 107.00 as the market resumed a downward move. The Yen has fallen and it is approaching level 104.25. A correction candle body tested 0.786 retracement level. It indicates the Yen will reverse at 1.272 Fibonacci level. USD/JPY reversal will not be immediate.

USD/JPY – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA are sloping downward indicating a bearish move. The Yen is currently at level 23 of the daily Relative Strength Index. The Yen has fallen to the oversold region of the market. Buyers are likely to emerge after a while.

USD/JPY Medium-term Trend: Bearish
The USD/JPY pair is in a descending channel. The market fell and resumed a sideways move above level 105.00. After retesting the resistance line, the downtrend resumed as price fell to the low of 104.25. The market has reached the oversold region as buyers are likely to emerge.

USD/JPY – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
The pair has fallen below 20% range of the daily stochastic. It implies that the market is in the oversold region of the market. Buyers have already emerged to push prices upward. The SMAs are also sloping downward. It indicates the downward move.

General Outlook for USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen has fallen to the oversold region. The selling pressure has been exhausted as buyers emerged in the oversold region. The price is also approaching the resistance line, a break above the resistance will accelerate price movement.



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Battle styles in the war room

31 July 2020 | Updated: 31 July 2020

Trading is a highly competitive human endeavor, but it is also highly rewarding. The financial markets can adeptly be compared to a battlefield; therefore a trading room can be likened to “a war room,” where you engage the markets. Victorious soldiers of the financial markets are those who make average gains that are bigger than average losses. These are successful traders

Yes, the key is that, we make average profits whose total is more than the total of average losses. That is the ultimate secret – make more money than you lose.

No matter the trading methodology/strategy/system you use, they will fall into any of the 5 categories listed below.

Battle styles – trading styles

SCALPING
This is a trading style that makes you take advantage of small movements in price. Once your position turns into profit, you exit the market immediately. Traders who employ this style usually cut their trades once they gain anything from a few to several pips. They stay in the markets for only a few to several minutes in most cases; and they rarely stay in the market for more than a few hours at most. If a speculator makes 10 USD per clean pip, and they gather around 3 to 5 pips per trade, you can imagine how much they will make if they do 10 trades per day.

INTRADAY TRADING
Intraday means “within the day.” So intraday trading is a style of trading that makes you enter the market and get out within the same day. It is also called DAY TRADIING. Doing this, you open a position and close it within a few hours and 24 hours maximum. As long as you open trades and close them within a day, you’re an intraday trader or a day trader. Intraday trading enables you to possibly catch from tens of pips to hundreds of pips in a day, depending on the condition of the market.
SWING TRADING
This is a trading style where a financial instrument is traded within one day to several weeks. A swing trade can remain open for over one day to a few days; or from a few days to several weeks. When you open a trade in a day and you don’t close it within the same day, then you become a swing trader. Capitalizing on the market ‘swings,’ means you want to potentially reap from tens of pips to thousands of pips within days or weeks.

POSITION TRADING
Position trading is a regular trading method in which you open a trade and leave it for a minimum of one month. The trade(s) can remain open for a few to several months or a few years. This kind of stance enables patient market players to make as much gains as possible from a protracted bias, whether bullish or bearish. Transitory noises in the markets are thus disregarded. A position trader that went long on AUDUSD in late March 2020 and held it till the end of July 2020, would have made a clean profit of at least 1,450 pips (roughly 14,500 USD if using standard lots).

INVESTING
It is simply a style where you allocate money to some financial instruments with the hope of returns in future. An investment may last from a few years to decades, even centuries. If you invested in Nasdaq 100 (NDX) in 2003 and held it till now (year 2020), you would have gained approximately 1,000,000 points (yes, one million points), and this seems like the beginning. You know what a gain of a mere 100 points looks like in terms of US dollar, if you use 1.0 lots. The best way to make colossal gains from shares, indices, precious metals, cryptos etc, is to hold them forever, irrespective of noises, bearish corrections and pullbacks along the way. After all, no investment is worthwhile unless it appears in your will (to be acquired eventually by your dependents and/or beneficiaries).

Source: www.learn2.trade    

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Australia 200 (AU200AUD) Is in a Downward Move, May Reverse at Level 6000

30 July 2020 | Updated: 30 July 2020

Key Resistance Zones: 7000, 7100, 7200
Key Support Zones: 6100, 6000, 5900

Australia 200 (AU200AUD) Long-term Trend: Ranging
The index fluctuates between levels 5800 and 6200 since May. Presently, the fluctuation is in the middle of the price range. The price is falling and after that, the upward move will resume. In the meantime, price movement is very slow and insignificant.

AU200AUD – Daily Chart

Daily Chart Indicators Reading:
The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping sideways indicating the sideways move. The index has fallen to level 54 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that the market is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50.

Australia 200 (AU200AUD) Medium-term Trend: Ranging
On the 4- hour chart, the index reached a high of level 6200 and resumed a downward move. On three occasions, the price corrected upward but the downtrend persisted to level 6029. A correction candlestick tested the 0.786 retracement level. It indicates that the market will fall and reverse at level 1.272 extension levels. However, the reversal will not be immediate.

AU200AUD – 4 Hour Chart

4-hour Chart Indicators Reading
AU200AUD is below 40% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates a bearish momentum. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping horizontally as the market continues its sideways movement.


General Outlook for Australia 200 (AU200AUD)
Australia 200 is still fluctuating but in a downward move. The downtrend will extend to the level 1.272 Fibonacci extension level. In other words, the market will reach a low of level 6000. The price will reverse and return to the level 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.


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Nasdaq 100 to Record Further Gains Following Fed’s Dovish Comments

30 July 2020 | Updated: 30 July 2020

The US stock market was in a consolidation range for most of Wednesday due to the anticipation of the Fed rates decision, only to end the day in a strong bullish trend as investors celebrated the central bank’s dovish tone.

While the Fed’s stance could cause the US dollar to drop even further and—based on the reaction in the market yesterday—cause the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to clear further gains.

That said, the market will be given just a little time to get stabilized as some of the major tech stocks queues to report their earnings at the close of the market today.

Combined, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: APPL), Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) account for about 35% of the entire Nasdaq 100 and have been some of the top gainers in the Coronavirus era. Consequently, it can be expected that the earnings report is likely to be quite bogus, which would precipitate further gains for the NDX in the near-term.

That said, market participants will be looking to double down on their bullish stance and ride the expected uptrend in the Nasdaq 100. However, some traders believe there are likely symptoms of overextension.

NDX – 4-Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — July 30

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 10895.5, 11068.1, and 11307.5

Demand Levels: 10377.8,10191.8, and 9901.3.

The NDX continues to hold steady in our ascending channel and looks poised to taking on previous resistance levels. Given the fundamental factors surrounding the market, we are likely to see the 10800 price tag soon.

Immediate support can be found at the 10500 level, which is the base of our ascending channel. The NDX is likely to find dip-buyers at that level, which could push it to the anticipated high.

Furthermore, our MACD indicator paints a decent picture of the impending surge likely to be witnessed in the Nasdaq 100. However, a sustained break below 10191 could be dangerous for NDX bulls.

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